Southeast Missouri State vs. LindenwoodFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHunter Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOUT | 7 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 38 |
| LIND | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 27 |
Top model pick, graded
WonSoutheast Missouri State Redhawks to win 64¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: Southeast Missouri State leads the current team-grade profile 73.8, 58.4, including an 85.7, 54.3 defensive-grade edge.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-4 on this game · −19% return
- Southeast Missouri State Redhawks to win+56%Won
Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket
3 modelsCFB Heater, Heater Two-Hour +1Why 3 models like it
CFB Heater- Southeast Missouri State leads the current team-grade profile 73.8, 58.4, including an 85.7, 54.3 defensive-grade edge.
- Southeast Missouri State is only 2-3 and its recent offense EPA per play is -0.1063.
Heater Two-Hour- FCS outcomes are high variance; a late availability or weather development could invalidate the signal.
CFB HunterV2- SEMO leads current-form scoring margin by 10.25 points per game.
- SEMO team grade 73.8 vs Lindenwood 58.4; defense grade edge is 85.7 to 54.3.
- Current-season charted advanced sample is only 2, 4 games per team.
- Lindenwood Lions spread +3−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsKey Number CFB, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Key Number CFB- The +3 rung captures key-number push protection near the sharp market center; the same-game main +4.5 underdog quote is directionally coherent.
- QB gate: latest passing leaders are Braylen Ragland (25 attempts) and Hoyt Gregory (12); official live roster/game pages list both as quarterbacks.
- Most likely loss: Southeast Missouri State wins by 4 or more, so Lindenwood +3 fails despite the key-number protection.
Long Way Home- The same-line sharp reference is Pinnacle Lindenwood +2.5 at +113; ProphetX gives an extra half-point at the identical price.
- Official preview has Southeast Missouri 2-3 and Lindenwood 1-3 entering OVC play; the market's 3-to-4-point range supports a one-score home game.
- Most likely loss: Southeast Missouri's second-ranked OVC rushing defense (109.4 yards allowed per game) controls the game and the Redhawks win by 4+.
- Southeast Missouri State Redhawks @ Lindenwood Lions under 45.5 total points (2026-10-10)−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Lindenwood's official preview lists last in the OVC in touchdowns (7), total offense (272.5 ypg), and passing offense (127.7 ypg).
- Both starting quarterbacks are listed for this game: SEMO's Braylen Ragland and Lindenwood's Pops Battle.
- Both teams last played Sept. 26, giving each roughly 14 days' rest; NWS forecast is mostly cloudy, 83°F, southeast wind 3, 8 mph.
- Biggest risk: Lindenwood's weak offense can outperform its small early-season sample at home, while SEMO supplies short fields.
- Southeast Missouri State Redhawks wins by over 2.5 points+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The independent margin estimate is approximately SEMO by 7 points after a home-field adjustment.
- SEMO's 2026 defense grade is 85.7 versus Lindenwood's 54.3.
- The exact contract has 4,195 contracts traded and a 1¢ quoted spread.
- The margin estimate is built from small current-season samples and imperfect early-season charting.
- Lindenwood Lions to win−100%Lost
Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, own win estimate is 42% versus ProphetX's 37.88¢ implied price.
- SEMO is averaging only 19.4 points across five 2026 games and has lost three of five, leaving a narrow offensive margin for error.
- Lindenwood's home setting and two-possession-or-less game paths make the outright upset more plausible than the market's high-30s price.
- Most likely loss: SEMO's stronger season profile and road-tested defense force Lindenwood into another low-output game.
Questions
Who won Southeast Missouri State vs. Lindenwood?
The Southeast Missouri State won 38–27 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.