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North Dakota vs. Northern IowaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalUNI-Dome
North Dakota5-1
17–24Final
Northern Iowa2-2
Score by period
Team1234T
NORT730717
NORT1770024

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 58.5 −110

Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: UND averages 41.6 points scored and 28.8 allowed; UNI averages 27.0 scored and 31.0 allowed through the current season.

Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 4-4 on this game · −6% return

  1. Game total under 58.52 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Picks With Pink Grading System
    Why 2 models like it
    Kickoff Ledger
    • UND averages 41.6 points scored and 28.8 allowed; UNI averages 27.0 scored and 31.0 allowed through the current season.
    • UNI's offense is -0.06 EPA/play with a 40.7% success rate, facing UND's +0.13 defensive EPA allowed figure.
    • UND has scored 55, 42, and 62 in three recent FCS games; its offense can clear the total alone.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Projected total 52.0, an 11.1% gap below the 58.5 line.
    • Under cashed in 3 of the five latest priced games involving these teams (60%).
    • North Dakota's last two wins scored 55 and 42; explosive offense can clear this number quickly.
  2. Over 58.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 54.0% over: offense/defense blend projects 59.5 points from current scoring and EPA samples.
    • North Dakota leads current EPA/play 0.09 to -0.05, success .476 to .407, explosive rate .135 to .092.
    • Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed: Jerry Kaminski for North Dakota and Jaxon Dailey for Northern Iowa.
    • Most likely loss: Northern Iowa's slower pace and weak offense combine with an underperforming game script.
  3. North Dakota Fighting Hawks spread −14.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • UND owns the efficiency matchup: +0.09 EPA/play versus UNI -0.06; UNI defense allows +0.35 EPA/play.
    • Success and explosiveness favor UND: 47.6%/13.5% versus UNI's 40.7%/9.2%.
    • Oct. 7 game notes list Jerry Kaminski and Jaxon Dailey as the respective QB1s; no quarterback injury is listed.
    • UNI last played Sept. 26 while UND played Oct. 3; the home side has roughly a two-week rest edge.
  4. North Dakota Fighting Hawks to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −500 on FanDuel

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • North Dakota is 5-1 with a +88 scoring margin; Northern Iowa is 2-2 with a -16 margin.
    • Per-play averages favor North Dakota: +0.09 EPA/play offense vs Northern Iowa -0.05, and 47.2% vs 40.7% success.
    • Team grades are 92.8 for North Dakota versus 77.7 for Northern Iowa; offense grades differ by 14.3 points.
    • Only three North Dakota and two Northern Iowa games have opponent-adjusted efficiency rows; the sample is thin.
  5. North Dakota Fighting Hawks wins by over 12.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • North Dakota is 5-1 with a +88 season margin; Northern Iowa is 2-2 with a -16 margin.
    • Team grades favor North Dakota 92.8-77.7 overall, including 84.1-69.8 offense and 90.0-71.5 defense.
    • Current charted efficiency favors North Dakota: +0.09 versus -0.06 offensive EPA/play and 46.8% versus 40.7% success rate.
    • No official MVFC injury report covers this matchup; UNI wide receiver JC Roque Jr. was reported expected back only in a potentially limited capacity.
  6. Northern Iowa +14.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Venue self-reference: ProphetX prices Northern Iowa +14.5 at -122 versus the less valuable +14 at -125.
Show all 7 picks
  1. Northern Iowa Panthers spread +14.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rung density: ProphetX moves from UNI +14 at -108 / 51.92¢ to +14.5 at -114 / 53.27¢, only 1.35 probability points for the exact-14 mass.
    • North Dakota’s +0.09 EPA/play, 47.6% success rate and 92.8 PFF grade support the favorite direction, making this a margin-rung play rather than an upset call.
    • QB gate cleared: Jerry Kaminski and Jaxon Dailey led their teams’ latest passing boxes; current game coverage and official UNI notes identify the matchup and quarterbacks.
    • Most likely loss: North Dakota wins by 15 or more, clearing the market’s favorite projection and missing the +14.5 ticket.

Questions

Who won North Dakota vs. Northern Iowa?

Northern Iowa won 24-17 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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