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San Diego State vs. Oregon StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalReser Stadium
San Diego State2–3
14–66Final
Oregon State3–2
Score by period
Team1234T
SDSU077014
ORST142421766

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 53.5 47¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 12-5 on this game · +40% return

  1. Oregon State Beavers spread −163 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • PFF supports Oregon State's offensive edge: 81.4 offense and 78.2 passing grade versus San Diego State's 62.7 and 48.8.
    • Most likely ticket loss: Oregon State's leaky defense gives Jayden Denegal enough explosive or short-field scoring for a backdoor cover.
    • Oregon State's defense has allowed +0.1419 EPA/play in five games, so the favorite may not separate cleanly.
    Key Number CFB
    • PFF’s current team card favors Oregon State 85.7 overall to San Diego State’s 78.0; the -650 moneyline and full ladder are directionally coherent.
    • QB gate cleared: Braden Atkinson is listed by Oregon State’s official game center; Jayden Denegal led SDSU’s latest box, is officially probable, and was reported expected to play.
    • Most likely loss: Oregon State wins by 15 or fewer; exactly 16 is a push rather than a win.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • only 2026 rates favor Oregon State: +0.265 versus San Diego State -0.122 EPA/play, a +0.387 gap.
    • Oregon State leads the FBS-only sample by 12.3 percentage points in success rate (.531 to .408) and 7.0 points in explosive rate (.159 to .089).
    • Oregon State's FBS-only defensive EPA allowed is .184 versus San Diego State's .094; SDSU can keep this inside the number if OSU's defense breaks.
  2. Game total over 53.52 models agree
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket

    2 modelsCFB Heater, CFB HunterV2
    Why 2 models like it
    CFB Heater
      • San Diego State's offense has negative recent EPA/play, creating blowout-and-clock risk for the over.
      CFB HunterV2
      • Oregon State averages 37.0 points with +0.316 offensive EPA/play through five games.
      • San Diego State allows 28.8 points per game; Oregon State's offense has produced a 55.0% success rate.
      • San Diego State's offense averages only 24.6 points and -0.030 EPA/play, creating a one-sided scoring dependency.
    • San Diego State vs Oregon State over 53.5 total
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

      Heater Early BirdUp 91% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Sport-filtered recent records are strong: 95.2%, 88.9%, and 94.1% wins, respectively.
      • Positions were opened recently, with average entries of 49.0c, 49.8c, and 49.0c; 49c is not worse than their average.
      • Pinnacle's main total is 53.0; the 53.5 contract is within the half-point look-ahead gate and is liquid.
      • This is an early look-ahead number; final injury and lineup statuses are not confirmed.
    • Oregon State Beavers −15.5
      +85%Won

      Taken at −118 on FanDuel

      RnjDown 65% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Matchup EPA differential is +0.489 per play for Oregon State over San Diego State, last four games.
      • Success-rate margin is +16.8 percentage points for Oregon State (.576 vs .408).
      • Spread variance is 1.0 point: FanDuel -15.5 against -16.5 at DraftKings/Pinnacle; FanDuel supplies -118.
      • A 15.5-point road-opponent spread still depends on Oregon State converting dominance into margin.
    • Oregon State Beavers over 34.5 team points
      +90%Won

      Taken at −111 on FanDuel

      Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • EPA delta +0.1621/play: Oregon State offense +0.2547 minus San Diego State defensive allowance +0.0926 across four FBS games each.
      • Oregon State's 26.71-second pace and San Diego State's 23.98-second pace are mixed, not a clean pace-over signal.
    • Game total over 52.5
      +94%Won

      Taken at −106 on FanDuel

      D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Weighted 2026 EPA/play: Oregon State +0.279 versus San Diego State -0.029 through five games.
      • Weighted success rate is .538 versus .428; explosive-play rate is .165 versus .096.
      • Oregon State quarterback Braden Atkinson has 1,739 yards and a 15-2 TD/INT split; SDSU quarterback Jayden Denegal is officially probable.
      • Oregon State's listed defensive-back absences could create efficient SDSU scoring despite the weaker offense.
    Show all 14 picks
    1. Game total under 53.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −110 on FanDuel

      Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • L10 blended scoring projection is 50.0 points, 6.5% below the 53.5 line.
      • Both teams stayed under 53.5 in 6 of their last 10 games (60%).
      • Oregon State's L10 defense allowed -0.0113 EPA/play; San Diego State's L10 offense generated -0.0160.
      • Both teams went over 53.5 in 3 of their last 5 games, reversing the longer trend.
    2. Oregon State Beavers spread −14.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • ProphetX prices -14 at 54.13¢ and -14.5 at 50.25¢: the 3.88¢ whole-rung premium exceeds the 2.661¢ push mass.
      • Synthetic half-line reference is 51.47¢ after subtracting the empirical push mass; -14.5 is offered at 50.25¢.
      • The -14.5 loses on the exact 14 margin; the 2.661% figure is an aggregate 2014-25 estimate, not matchup-specific.
    3. Oregon State Beavers first-half spread NO 23.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 3,660 CFB finals from 2022, 25: SD_full 14.61; square-root scaling gives SD_1H approximately 10.33.
      • Live mean: 14, 0 at 0:26 Q1 plus projected 6.5-point remaining differential gives halftime mean 20.5.
      • VENUE SELF-REFERENCE only; no independent sharp first-half quote, so this is capped LEAN. EDGE CLASS: PROJECTION.
      • Oregon State already has 14 points and its live offense is 0.537 EPA/play; another touchdown makes NO 23.5 fragile.
    4. Oregon State Beavers first-half spread NO 13.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 3,489 2023, 26 regular/postseason finals: signed-margin SD 15.34; sqrt-half scaling gives SD_1H 10.85, not 7.67.
      • Pinnacle Oregon State −16.5; a 0.55 first-half factor gives projected mean margin ≈+9.3.
      • At the exact 13.5 rung, N(9.3, 10.85²) gives NO ≈65%; 63¢ leaves roughly two probability points.
      • The rung sits just below empirical 14-margin mass: 139 of 3,489 finals, or 4.0%; first-half mass may differ.
    5. Total points under 51
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Oregon State averages 26.86 seconds per play; San Diego State averages 24.33, limiting the possession outlook.
      • Pinnacle's reference total is 52; the efficiency read supports the lower ProphetX alternate despite the exchange's thin main rung.
      • Both defenses allow positive EPA: Oregon State +0.134 and San Diego State +0.077 per play.
    6. Game first-half total over 27.5 points
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

      Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Season W1, 5 pace: Oregon State 26.89 sec/play and 11.4 drives/game; San Diego State 24.24 sec/play and 12.4 drives/game. The 25.56-sec blended pace cross-check supports roughly 70.4 first-half plays.
      • Drive ledger gives Oregon State 6.2 and San Diego State 6.0 first-half drives per game: 12.2 combined, not a flat 50% allocation.
      • No independent first-half sharp quote; this is a scaled full-game reference, so the position is LEAN rather than RECOMMENDED.
    7. Game total under 52.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Exactly 53 occurred in 147 of 11,095 completed CFB games: 1.325% historical push mass.
      • ProphetX prices under 53 at -104 (50.98¢) but under 52.5 at +103 (49.26¢); the safer whole rung is materially more expensive.
      • The 1.325% exact-total rate is an all-CFB historical baseline, not a matchup-specific scoring model.
    8. Game total over 52
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Five-game scoring averages are Oregon State 37.0 and San Diego State 24.6; an opponent-context haircut still projects roughly 56, 57 total points.
      • Oregon State's offense averages 0.309 EPA/play, 55.3% success, and 16.7% explosive plays across five games.
      • Most likely loss: San Diego State stalls, Oregon State controls the lead, and second-half clock management keeps the game below 52.

    Questions

    Who won San Diego State vs. Oregon State?

    The Oregon State won 66–14 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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