Hawai'i vs. Arizona StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalMountain America Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAW | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| ASU | 7 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 30 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUnder 50.5 total 49¢
Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 8-3 on this game · +41% return
- Hawai'i vs. Arizona State over 51.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Under 50.5 total+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days - Game total over 50.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ASU averages 33.25 points; Hawai'i allows 24.8, supporting ASU scoring near the high-20s or low-30s.
- Hawai'i averages 17.6 points; ASU allows 31.75, producing a roughly 53-point composite projection.
- Sharp 50.5-point anchor is 48.1% over after devigging; the model remains above that anchor.
- The inputs cover only four to five 2026 games and lack opponent-strength adjustment.
- Game total under 51.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days - Game total under 50.5 points+95%Won
Taken at −105 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent efficiency is subdued: ASU averaged -0.057 offensive EPA/play and 21.5 points over its last two.
- Hawai'i averaged 0.025 offensive EPA/play and 13.0 points over its last two; both teams have seven days' rest.
- Cutter Boley was officially announced ASU's starter; Micah Alejado is the official preview's Hawaii quarterback and started all five box-score games.
- Arizona State's defense allowed 55 points to Baylor, and its season scoring average is 33.25 points.
- Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +21+87%Won
Taken at −115 on DraftKings
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Hawai'i's 2026 offense averages +0.116 EPA/play; ASU's offense falls to about -0.032 against Kansas, Texas A&M, and Baylor after removing Morgan State.
- Spread number held at 21 while ASU's price moved to +102 at Pinnacle; current market shows no late favorite steam.
- Fresh game listing identifies Micah Alejado and Cutter Boley as the starters; ASU's official report lists multiple offensive-line absences.
- ASU's 2026 defense averages -0.043 EPA/play allowed, a substantial matchup edge over Hawai'i's +0.112 allowed.
Show all 11 picks
- Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors +20.5+96%Won
Taken at −104 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 74/100; blended projection makes Arizona State a 16.5-point favorite, 4 points short of the spread.
- Hawai'i's 2026 offense has produced +0.1323 EPA/play over the recent window; Arizona State's defense is only -0.0148 EPA allowed/play.
- Hawai'i's last-five scoring margin is -7.2, while Arizona State's current-season margin is only +1.5 across four games.
- Arizona State carries an 84.6 PFF team grade and home-field advantage, creating real blowout risk.
- 1st-half total under 27.5 points+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Recent 3-game points per drive: Arizona State 1.58, Hawai'i 1.69; five-to-six drives each projects roughly 16-20 first-half points.
- Arizona State's recent 3-game offense posted a 41.7% success rate and -0.032 EPA/play, limiting script-based scoring confidence.
- Both quarterbacks cleared the live gate: official ASU information names Cutter Boley; matchup coverage identifies Micah Alejado for Hawai'i.
- Hawai'i's Wyoming row contains an anomalous 1.33-second pace value, reducing confidence in possession estimates.
- Game first-half total over 27.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 12.5 weather-adjusted first-half drives; ASU 7.0 plus Hawai'i 5.8 historical.
- Pace blend: ASU 26.33 and Hawai'i 24.37 valid seconds/play, or 25.35 combined.
- Rate-derived first-half uplift is 10.1% from mean PROE .185 and explosive rate .118.
- Hawai'i's 1.33 seconds/play row is a data-quality outlier; excluding it adds model uncertainty.
- Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors spread +20.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Current-season efficiency: Hawai'i +0.116 offensive EPA/play versus ASU's -0.043 defensive EPA/play allowed.
- ASU averages 33.25 points; Hawai'i averages 17.6 and scored 16 or fewer in three of five games.
- ASU's 84.6 PFF grade supports the favorite, but the matchup model still gives Hawai'i +20.5 a 55% cover probability.
- ASU's margin distribution is wide after a 55-19 Baylor loss; a clean blowout script can erase the cushion.
- Arizona State Sun Devils first-half spread NO 13.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle's full-game ASU -21 scales to a +10.5 first-half mean.
- 2026 CFB has 793 finals with 17.46-point margin SD; square-root half scaling gives 12.35 first-half SD.
- NO 55¢ implies 55.0%; the derived reference is +4.6 probability points, a moderate LEAN.
- ASU has only four 2026 games and margins from +63 to -36; Hawaii has five, so team inputs are volatile.
Questions
Who won Hawai'i vs. Arizona State?
The Arizona State won 30–12 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.