South Carolina State vs. Charleston SouthernFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBuccaneer Field
South Carolina State5–1
39–49Final
Charleston Southern2–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC | 6 | 10 | 15 | 8 | 39 |
| CHAR | 14 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 40.5 total points 48¢
Why Key Number CFB likes it: Key-number density: the 38.5-to-40.5 ladder gap crosses the 41-point region; CFB totals landed 40, 42 in 594 of 11,089 regular/postseason games, versus 753 in 43, 45 and 646 in 46, 48, so adjacent mass is not flat.
Key Number CFBDown 7% this season · 668 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-2 on this game · +26% return
- Under 38.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at −108 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SC State’s current efficiency edge is substantial: +0.156 EPA/play, 49.6% success and 14.3% explosive rate versus Charleston Southern’s -0.297, 31.4% and 5.8%.
- Both teams last played Oct. 3, providing an even seven-day rest week; confirmed starters are Keely Watson and Lek Powell.
- Kickoff was moved because of adverse weather; the forecast calls for heavy rain, 100% precipitation, southeast winds 11, 14 mph and gusts up to 29 mph.
- The biggest risk is rain-created short fields and defensive scores, which can beat a low total without sustained offense.
- South Carolina State Bulldogs to win−100%Lost
Taken at −221 on DraftKings
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Efficiency: SC State recent EPA/play +0.102 versus Charleston Southern -0.317; success rate 44.5% versus 33.6%.
- QB family: Keely Watson is at 64.8%, 1,064 yards, 11 TD and 3 INT; Lek Powell has 552 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT.
- Team grades favor SC State 94.5 overall, 81.5 offense and 92.6 defense; Charleston Southern is 89.7, 71.0 and 90.1.
- Only two 2026 games are charted in the team-game EPA sample, so early-season FCS efficiency is noisy.
- Over 40.5 total points+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Key-number density: the 38.5-to-40.5 ladder gap crosses the 41-point region; CFB totals landed 40, 42 in 594 of 11,089 regular/postseason games, versus 753 in 43, 45 and 646 in 46, 48, so adjacent mass is not flat.
- South Carolina State's recent four-game offense produced +0.101 EPA/play, 49.6% success and 11.2% explosiveness; Charleston Southern was -0.317 EPA/play and 33.2% successful.
- Recent scoring form is strong enough to clear the rung: SC State has scored 266 points in six games, while Charleston Southern has allowed 83 in five.
- Most likely loss: the game finishes 37, 40, with Charleston Southern's offense failing to contribute against SC State.
- Game total over 37.5+93%Won
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- South Carolina State averages 44.3 scored/14.2 allowed; Charleston Southern averages 23.6/16.6 in 2026.
- DraftKings -108 implies 51.9%; my 57% estimate clears it by 5.1 points.
- Total fell from 41.5 opening to 37.5, opposing the over and signaling under support.
- Game total over 41.5+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE, Last-five scoring/allowance blend projects 46.5 total points before a schedule haircut.
- Removing the Virginia State and Point University outliers still gives a rough 41.8-point projection from the remaining four games.
- South Carolina State averaged 35.8 points and Charleston Southern 23.6 across their latest five; the matchup needs 42, not a huge shootout.
- Most likely loss: South Carolina State's offense stalls and this follows Charleston Southern's recent 10-12 or South Carolina State's 20-17 script.
Questions
Who won South Carolina State vs. Charleston Southern?
The Charleston Southern won 49–39 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.