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Tennessee vs. ArkansasFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalDonald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Tennessee4–1
24–17Final
Arkansas2–3
Score by period
Team1234T
TENN0731424
ARK0014317

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 51.5 total 49¢

Why ProphetX CFB Lines likes it: Load-bearing possession factor: Tennessee and Arkansas average 72.5 and 71.4 plays, with roughly 21 combined adjusted drives; Arkansas averages only 1.56 points per drive.

ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% this season · 286 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-13 on this game · −30% return

  1. Tennessee Volunteers spread −143 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Matchup gap: Tennessee offense +0.2362 EPA/play faces Arkansas allowing +0.1672; Arkansas offense -0.0260 faces Tennessee allowing -0.0229.
    • FPI projects a 16.122-point Tennessee margin; PFF team grades favor Tennessee 88.5, 70.8 overall and 89.2, 67.6 on defense.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee controls the game but Arkansas scores late, turning a projected multi-score win into a margin under 14.
    Key Number CFB
    • PFF 2026 grades favor Tennessee 88.5 overall and 89.2 defense versus Arkansas at 70.8 and 67.6.
    • QB gate cleared: CBS and Yahoo report George MacIntyre starts for injured Faizon Brandon; the latest box led with MacIntyre's 10 attempts.
    • Most likely loss: Arkansas stays within 13; -14 loses, while exactly 14 is only a push.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Tennessee leads Arkansas by 0.262 EPA/play offensively, 0.190 defensive EPA/play allowed, 8.32 percentage points in success rate, and 2.51 points in explosive rate.
    • Tennessee's five-game form is 4-1 with a +21.6 margin; Arkansas is 2-3 with a -8.6 margin. FBS-only rows still show a meaningful Tennessee efficiency advantage.
    • Tennessee has not formally confirmed the starter: Faizon Brandon is questionable, while Oct. 10 reporting says George MacIntyre is expected but coach Josh Heupel has not confirmed him.
  2. Arkansas Razorbacks to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +425 on DraftKings

    2 modelsCFB Moonshot Singles, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    CFB Moonshot Singles
      • Tennessee averages 43.6 points.
      Long Way Home
      • Arkansas produced explosive completions of 21, 29, and 15 yards; the scoreless game understates its early offensive movement.
      • Most likely loss: Tennessee's defensive pressure and superior pregame profile turn field position into second-half scores before Arkansas can convert its yardage.
    • Game total under 51.52 models agree
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

      2 modelsHeater Two-Hour, Kickoff Ledger
      Why 2 models like it
      Heater Two-Hour
        • Global Polymarket currently shows Under near 48.5c, conflicting with the US 50c quote and indicating active disagreement.
        Kickoff Ledger
        • Season scoring blend projects 50.1 points; efficiency-adjusted fair total is 49.0 versus 51.5.
        • Arkansas averages -0.026 offensive EPA/play; Tennessee allows -0.023 defensive EPA/play.
        • Tennessee owns a strong +0.236 offensive EPA/play average and can score efficiently despite the new quarterback.
      • Tennessee Volunteers spread −13.5
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

        Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Exact-rung Pinnacle: Tennessee -13.5 -115 / Arkansas +13.5 +102; devigged Tennessee cover probability is 51.9%.
        • Most likely loss: Tennessee wins by 13 points or fewer, or Arkansas wins outright.
      • DeSean Bishop first touchdown scorerLong shot
        −100%Lost

        Taken at +340 on DraftKings

        CFB Top-25 First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • AP No. 15 Tennessee brings a 4-1 record and a 13.5-point favorite profile into Arkansas.
        • Tennessee averages +0.236 EPA/play, 52.5% success and 2.87 points/drive; Arkansas allows +0.176 defensive EPA/play.
        • Bishop owns 87 carries, 536 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs; he had 33 carries and 3 TDs last week.
        • First-TD markets are extremely high variance; Tennessee's 22 offensive TDs are spread across several backs, the quarterback and receivers.
      • Under 51.5 total
        +104%Won

        Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

        ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Load-bearing possession factor: Tennessee and Arkansas average 72.5 and 71.4 plays, with roughly 21 combined adjusted drives; Arkansas averages only 1.56 points per drive.
        • Directional convergence: Arkansas averages 1.56 points per drive and a 0.103 explosive rate; Tennessee's current 0.128 explosive rate is offset by the projected 50.2-point scoring mean.
        • Most likely loss: Tennessee converts short fields and explosive plays while Arkansas's offense materially improves, pushing the game above 51.5.
      Show all 16 picks
      1. Chris Marshall over 6.5 receptions
        +102%Won

        Taken at +102 on BetOnline

        Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Target share was 25.0%, 30.6%, and 48.0% across the last three games; mean 34.5%, sample CV 34.8%, just under the 35% stability gate.
        • Receptions were 8, 9, and 7 while yards per target fell 14.4 to 17.7 to 6.3 chronologically; share rose as efficiency cratered, the required divergence.
        • PFF route participation was 95.7%, 93.0%, and 96.3% in those games, confirming a recurring route role rather than a one-game spike.
        • Arkansas averaged only 25 pass attempts in the latest game; Tennessee's strong defense can shrink the passing pie again.
      2. Arkansas Razorbacks +14
        +85%Won

        Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

        Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Book levels are Arkansas 3 versus Tennessee 3: neutral, while thin-at-quote plus deeper total depth supplies two agreeing measures.
        • Book-level count is tied 3-3, so there is no third-measure corroboration beyond the thin/deep pairing.
      3. Total Points over 51
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

        Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • ProphetX team-total anchors are Arkansas 17.5 and Tennessee 34.5; their 52-point sum sits one point above the game total.
        • QB gate cleared live: George MacIntyre was confirmed as Tennessee's starter, and KJ Jackson led Arkansas's latest pass-attempt row with the official Arkansas preview identifying him.
        • Most likely loss: Tennessee's defense suppresses Arkansas while MacIntyre's limited 2026 sample produces a conservative Vols offense, leaving the game at 51 or fewer.
      4. Tennessee Volunteers first-half spread over 7.5
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

        Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Season-to-date scoring blend projects a 15.1-point full-game Tennessee margin; first-half mean is 7.55.
        • At the exact 7.5 rung, the mean+SD tail is 50.2%; Kalshi raw yes_ask 0.48 is a fraction, converted to 48 cents.
        • Pinnacle’s Tennessee -13.5 full-game spread scales to -6.75 first half, near the 7.55 projection.
        • No fitted first-half scoreboard calibration; the normal mean-plus-SD distribution is structural, not directly estimated.
      5. Tennessee Volunteers −13.5
        −100%Lost

        Taken at −115 on FanDuel

        Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • PWP grade 71/100; model projects Tennessee by 16.1, 2.6 points beyond the -13.5 spread.
        • Tennessee is 4-1, while Arkansas is 2-3 through five games.
        • Tennessee's recent 10-game defensive EPA allowed is 0.0596 versus Arkansas's 0.2209.
        • George MacIntyre makes his first career start; Faizon Brandon's shoulder designation can update 90 minutes before kickoff.
      6. Game first-half total over 25.5 points
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

        Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Season window W1, 5: Tennessee averaged 72.8 plays at 27.01 seconds/play and 12.2 drives; Arkansas averaged 71.2 at 27.93 and 11.0 drives.
        • Only a 1.8-point cushion over 25.5; first-half red-zone and turnover variance dominates this thin derived edge.
      7. Arkansas Razorbacks under 17.5 team points
        +100%Won

        Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

        CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Model projects roughly 16.5 Arkansas points and 58% under 17.5 after the home adjustment.
        • Arkansas averages 1.564 points/drive and -0.0275 EPA/play; Tennessee allows 15.2 points per game with an 89.2 defense grade.
        • Tennessee's defense has allowed only 76 points in five games, while Arkansas has a 44.2% recent offensive success rate.
        • Arkansas is at home, and one explosive play or short field can push the score above 17.5.
      8. Tennessee Volunteers over 13.5 points margin
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

        CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Model margin 16.1 points; QB uncertainty haircut still yields 55.5% over 13.5.
        • Tennessee: +0.236 EPA/play and 2.869 points/drive over five games; Arkansas: -0.028 and 1.564.
        • Tennessee team grade 88.5 versus Arkansas 70.8, supporting a meaningful underlying gap.
        • Faizon Brandon remains an official game-time decision; MacIntyre starter reports are not official confirmation.
      9. under 50.5 total points
        +113%Won

        Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

        House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • under 50.5 wins when the final total is exactly 50; adjacent under 50 only pushes there.
        • Exact total 50 occurred 53 of 3,660 CFB finals from 2022, 25: 1.448% push/win-state asymmetry.
        • ProphetX prices under 50.5 at +112 (47.17¢) versus under 50 at +110 (47.62¢): the better-settling rung is also longer.
        • No projection edge is claimed; under 50.5 still loses at 51 or more, and the adjacent prices may reflect forecasting differences.
      10. Game total over 52
        −100%Lost

        Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

        Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
        Why it likes it
        • Tennessee’s offense produces +0.236 EPA/play and 2.869 points per drive; Arkansas allows +0.167 EPA/play defensively.
        • Tennessee’s -500 moneyline and -13.5 spread at -107 are directionally coherent with Tennessee supplying the scoring pressure.
        • QB gate cleared: George MacIntyre is confirmed by a current game report and availability data; KJ Jackson led Arkansas’s latest passing box and appears as its quarterback in the Oct. 10 preview.
        • Most likely loss: Arkansas stalls and Tennessee’s defense controls the game, leaving 51 or fewer points; exactly 52 is a push.

      Questions

      Who won Tennessee vs. Arkansas?

      The Tennessee won 24–17 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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