Tarleton State vs. Austin PeayFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalFortera Stadium
Tarleton State5–0
40–32Final
Austin Peay5–1
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TARL | 10 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 40 |
| AUST | 3 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 32 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTarleton State Texans to win +114
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B); own win estimate 52% versus 46.7% raw implied at +114, a +5.3-point projection edge.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-1 on this game · +61% return
- Tarleton State Texans to win+114%Won
Taken at +114 on FanDuel
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, CFB HunterV2Why 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B); own win estimate 52% versus 46.7% raw implied at +114, a +5.3-point projection edge.
- Recent charted EPA: Tarleton +0.0976 offense and -0.1364 defense per play versus Austin Peay +0.0129 and -0.0072.
- Austin Peay is 4-0 at home and the official preview notes a 10-game home winning streak in Clarksville.
CFB HunterV2- Tarleton's latest three-game EPA profile: +0.0959 offense, -0.1379 defense allowed.
- Tarleton's current-season profile is 5-0 with a +17.8 recent scoring margin.
- Only 2-3 current-season games have advanced EPA charting, making the efficiency sample thin.
- Game total under 60.5−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- NWS Middle Tennessee forecast calls for 1, 2 inches of rain and gusts up to 45 mph; wind/rain materially suppress deep passing and kicking.
- Tarleton’s latest efficiency was explosive (0.302 EPA/play, 0.257 explosive rate), but Austin Peay’s latest offense was only 0.193 EPA/play; weather is the matchup equalizer.
- Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed in same-day sources: Tarleton’s Kaden Anderson and Austin Peay’s Chris Parson.
- Both offenses are averaging strong recent scoring outputs, including 56 Tarleton points and 42 Austin Peay points last week.
- Tarleton State Texans spread +1.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Questions
Who won Tarleton State vs. Austin Peay?
The Tarleton State won 40–32 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.