Samford vs. ChattanoogaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalFinley Stadium
Samford1–4
3–19Final
Chattanooga3–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAMF | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| CHAT | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 41.5 54¢
Why CFB HunterV2 likes it: Model probability 59.0% versus a 54¢ NO cost: +5.0 probability points.
CFB HunterV2Down 13% this season · 270 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-3 on this game · −11% return
- Game total under 41.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsCFB HunterV2, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB HunterV2- Model probability 59.0% versus a 54¢ NO cost: +5.0 probability points.
- Both teams have negative recent offensive EPA/play: Samford -0.2591 and Chattanooga -0.1165.
- The blended scoring expectation sits close to 41.5, so a single explosive play or short field can flip the ticket.
Long Way Home- INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, ProphetX offers under 41.5 at -192 (65.75¢ implied), while its adjacent under 41 is -420 (80.77¢), an impossible ladder inversion.
- Samford's latest offense produced 14 points with -0.2293 EPA/play; Chattanooga's latest offense produced 3 points with -0.3360 EPA/play.
- Most likely loss: Chattanooga converts enough short fields or explosives for a 24-17 type result reaching 41 or more.
- Samford Bulldogs over 11.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Bills BelichicksDown 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- John Grass is 72-26 as an FCS head coach; Rusty Wright is listed at 42-34, a 18.2-point career win-rate gap.
- Samford +11.5 is priced -110 at FanDuel; the spread moved from +10.5 to +11.5, creating more cushion.
- Samford's recent offense EPA/play (-0.259) trails Chattanooga (-0.117), but the underdog's coaching-experience edge is the specific matchup angle.
- Samford is 1-4 in 2026 and Chattanooga is 3-3; current form and the PFF grade gap favor Chattanooga materially.
- Samford Bulldogs spread +10.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model probability 56.5% versus 49.5¢ market cost: +7.0 probability points.
- Chattanooga's current offense is -0.1165 EPA/play; Samford's is -0.2591, reducing expected margin.
- Current-season scoring blend projects roughly a one-score game, below the 10.5-point contract threshold.
- Chattanooga's 92.4 defensive grade and 86.3 overall grade create real blowout risk.
- Game total under 40.5+95%Won
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected total 38.0, a 2.5-point gap or 6.2% below the 40.5 line.
- Chattanooga leads its league in scoring defense at 14.2 points allowed per game.
- Samford has -0.259 offensive EPA per play and 1.134 points per drive across four charted games.
- The total already fell from 43.5 to 40.5, so the market has captured much of the defensive angle.
- Samford Bulldogs spread +11.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Samford’s 45-7 VMI win produced +0.2852 EPA/play and 51.9% success; Chattanooga’s 27-8 Citadel win produced +0.0310 EPA/play and 42.6% success.
- Chattanooga has averaged only 15.0 points across two 2026 games; at the 40.5 total, +11.5 gives the underdog meaningful one-score protection.
- Most likely loss: Samford repeats its 14-point UAB offensive output while Chattanooga converts home field into a 12-plus-point win.
Questions
Who won Samford vs. Chattanooga?
The Chattanooga won 19–3 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.