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Stanford vs. Notre DameFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalNotre Dame Stadium
Stanford2–3
7–58Final
Notre Dame5–0
Score by period
Team1234T
STAN00707
ND142371458

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 55.5 total 49¢

Why Saturday Board likes it: Pinnacle's live main total is 55.0, Over -109 / Under -107, devigged Over 50.2%; no exact 55.5 Pinnacle rung.

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-16 on this game · −44% return

  1. Game total under 54.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsKey Number CFB, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Key Number CFB
    • Stanford’s recent offense is -0.0685 EPA/play with 1.328 points per drive; Notre Dame’s defense allows -0.0315 EPA/play.
    • Notre Dame’s 2026 offense is strong, but its 30.88-second pace and Stanford’s low offensive efficiency point below the 55-point market.
    • Notre Dame averages 41.2 points through five games, while Stanford’s defense allows 0.2512 EPA/play; a blowout can produce cheap late scores.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • offense-defense midpoint is 54.3 points (Notre Dame 39.7, Stanford 14.6), just below the 54.5 rung.
    • Stanford averages 17.4 points and -0.021 EPA/play; Notre Dame allows 11.8 points and -0.0328 defensive EPA/play across five games.
    • Combined scoring averages are 58.6 points, above the line; Notre Dame's 41.2-point offense can break the under alone.
    Long Way Home
    • A simple five-game projection averages each offense with the opponent’s points allowed: Notre Dame 39.7, Stanford 14.6, total 54.3.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame’s efficient offense scores 40-plus and Stanford contributes enough for 55 or more.
  2. Stanford Cardinal spread +39.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    2 modelsKickoff Ledger, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Kickoff Ledger
    • Notre Dame’s last-five offense: +0.332 EPA/play, 55.7% success, 41.2 points; Stanford’s defense allowed +0.383 EPA/play and 38.2 points.
    • Stanford’s offense averaged -0.028 EPA/play and 17.4 points, but its 24.6-second pace is materially faster than Notre Dame’s 31.0 seconds, aiding backdoor-cover chances.
    • Biggest risk: Stanford’s defense can surrender explosive plays, allowing Notre Dame to reach 50-plus before the margin becomes competitive.
    Long Way Home
    • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, current-season averages imply roughly Notre Dame 39.7, Stanford 14.6, a 25-point margin before further adjustment.
    • Notre Dame leads Stanford by 0.360 EPA/play in offense and 0.415 defensive EPA/play allowed; the 39.5 spread is wider than this matchup profile supports.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame creates short fields, Stanford's offense collapses, and the Irish win by 40 or more.
  3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish spread −39.52 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Picks With Pink Grading System
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Notre Dame averages +0.3315 offensive EPA/play and Stanford allows +0.3825 defensive EPA/play across five 2026 games.
    • Notre Dame leads the five-game comparison in success rate (.5632 to .4345), explosive rate (.1359 to .0962), and average margin (+29.4 to -20.8).
    • Likeliest loss path: Notre Dame wins but fails to extend beyond 39.5 after halftime, or Stanford scores a late backdoor touchdown.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • style predictor projects Notre Dame by 44.57, 5.07 points beyond the 39.5 spread.
    • Notre Dame owns a 96.6 team grade versus Stanford's 69.3; defense grades are 93.2 versus 63.0.
    • Notre Dame covered this number only once in its five 2026 games; Stanford covered +39.5 in four of five by this comparison.
  4. Stanford Cardinal +39.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  5. Over 55.5 total
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live main total is 55.0, Over -109 / Under -107, devigged Over 50.2%; no exact 55.5 Pinnacle rung.
    • Most likely loss: Stanford stalls while Notre Dame protects an early lead, finishing at 55 points or fewer.
  6. Under 55 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 138.2 combined current plays translate to about 21.3 adjusted drives; the possession count is modest for a 55-point game.
    • Opponent-adjusted points per drive project roughly 4.1 for Notre Dame and 0.8 for Stanford, producing a 52.9-point mean.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame converts its efficiency edge into 50-plus points, or Stanford adds short-field/explosive scores to push the total above 55.
Show all 19 picks
  1. Stanford Cardinal spread +38.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  2. Total points over 51.5
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game scoring baseline is 58.6 points: Notre Dame averages 41.2 and Stanford 17.4.
    • Possession profile supports scoring: Stanford averages 24.51 seconds/play and +18.2% PROE; Notre Dame averages 31.27 seconds/play and +7.8% PROE.
    • CJ Carr and Davis Warren led the latest passing boxes with 29 and 30 attempts; current web checks support both as the expected quarterbacks.
    • Most likely loss: Stanford repeats its three-point offensive collapse against Wake Forest, leaving Notre Dame to score 51 or fewer alone.
  3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish spread −40.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup defense gap: Stanford allows +0.3825 EPA/play; Notre Dame allows -0.0327, while Notre Dame’s offense averages 3.70 points per drive.
    • PFF overall grades favor Notre Dame 96.6, 69.3; defense grades are 93.2, 63.0.
    • Personnel gate cleared: latest passing boxes were led by CJ Carr with 29 attempts and Davis Warren with 30; current web coverage cross-checks Carr and Warren.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame builds a lead, then second-half rotation and conservative possessions leave the 40.5-point cover short.
  4. 1st-quarter total under 13.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The same bottom-up drive model projects roughly 12.5, 13.0 first-quarter points, below the 13.5 threshold.
    • A first-quarter market is only a few possessions; one explosive Notre Dame play or defensive takeaway can decide it.
  5. 1st-half total under 30.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game 2026 PPD averages: Notre Dame 3.702, Stanford 1.331; bottom-up script projection is 27, 28 first-half points.
    • Notre Dame averaged 4.09 points per drive in its latest game; an early scripted touchdown or short field can break 30.5.
  6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish under 38.5-point margin
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model score estimate is Notre Dame 39.7, Stanford 14.6: a 25.1-point projected margin.
    • Notre Dame exceeded a 38.5-point margin in only 2 of its 5 current-season games.
    • Kalshi NO costs 47¢, implying 47%; model probability is 62%, a +15-point edge.
    • Notre Dame averages 41.2 points while Stanford allows 38.2, so an early blowout can clear the margin.
  7. Stanford Cardinal over 6.5 team points
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 72% vs 60% Kalshi cost: +12 percentage points.
    • Stanford averages 17.4 points in 2026 and scored above 6.5 in 4 of 5 games.
    • Notre Dame allows 11.8 points per game; opponents exceeded 6.5 in 4 of 5.
    • Stanford scored 3 points last week and has multiple offensive-line players listed out.
  8. Game total over 54.5 points
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over 54.5 wins outright at exactly 55; adjacent Over 55 pushes at exactly 55.
    • ProphetX Over 54.5 is -118 (54.13¢) versus Over 55 at -114 (53.27¢), only 0.86 percentage points apart.
    • Pinnacle also prices Over 55 at -113, close to ProphetX's Over 55, while the lower ProphetX rung nearly matches it despite winning on 55.
  9. Total Points under 55
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Stanford's offense produced only 87 points in five games and just 10 combined points in its last two; Notre Dame has allowed 59 total points in five games.
    • REFERENCE check is coherent, not the edge: team-total thresholds of Stanford 7.5 plus Notre Dame 47.5 sum to the 55 game rung.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame's 0.3315 offensive EPA/play overwhelms Stanford's defense and the Irish reach 50-plus before Stanford contributes.
  10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish first-half spread NO 23.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game Notre Dame -39.5, scaled to a first-half mean near 21.7 with a 0.55 first-half factor.
    • 3,347 regular-season FBS games (2023-26) give full-game margin SD 15.46; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 10.93.
    • At 23.5, N(21.7, 10.93²) estimates Notre Dame-over probability 44%, so NO is approximately 56%.
    • Davis Warren and C.J. Carr pass the plurality-start and live-preview gate, but Notre Dame's official page did not explicitly label Carr today's starter.
  11. Game first-half total under 30.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Weeks 1-5 averages are Stanford 70 plays at 24.66 seconds/play and Notre Dame 67.6 at 31.27.
    • QB gate met: Davis Warren led Stanford attempts in three straight games; CJ Carr led Notre Dame attempts in three straight, with live confirmation.
    • The 1.6-point model cushion is fragile; one Notre Dame explosive drive or short field can clear 30.5.
  12. Game total under 55
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PFF grades show Notre Dame defense at 93.2 versus Stanford offense at 66.2; Stanford scored 3 points in its latest game.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame's +0.3315 offensive EPA/play and Stanford's +0.3825 defensive EPA allowed create a 50-plus-point Irish output.
  13. Total Points under 54.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Stanford scored 87 points across five games and only 3 last week; Notre Dame allowed 59 total in its five-game window.
    • Sportsbook reference is 55 to 55.5; ProphetX's lower 54.5 rung supplies plus money on the continuing under position.
    • Most likely loss: Notre Dame's 0.3323 EPA/play offense exploits Stanford's +0.3827 defensive EPA allowed and reaches 48-plus alone.

Questions

Who won Stanford vs. Notre Dame?

The Notre Dame won 58–7 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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