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UT Martin vs. Tennessee StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalNissan Stadium
UT Martin1–4
42–28Final
Tennessee State1–4
Score by period
Team1234T
UT014141442
TENN1470728

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 46.5 −103

Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: 53.4-point recent average; 9 of the last 10 combined totals cleared 46.5.

Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 2-5 on this game · −39% return

  1. Under 45.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both offenses are negative in 2026 EPA/play: UT Martin -0.081 and Tennessee State -0.132; success rates are .414 and .381.
    • Surber and Lee are listed starters, so the projection does not rely on an unverified backup assumption.
    • NWS Nashville reports rain impacts and 30, 45 mph gust potential near kickoff; my fair total is 40.5.
    • Both defenses have allowed substantial scoring against stronger opponents: 44.0 points per game for UT Martin and 45.5 for Tennessee State.
  2. Game total over 46.5
    +97%Won

    Taken at −103 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 53.4-point recent average; 9 of the last 10 combined totals cleared 46.5.
    • Comparable FCS games went over 46.5 in all six observed results.
    • Offense/defense blend projects 53.4 points, 6.9 above the posted total.
    • Only five completed games per team; opponent quality and blowout variance widen the distribution.
  3. Tennessee State Tigers +8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • UT Martin's 2026 offense is -0.081 EPA/play; Tennessee State is -0.132, a modest efficiency gap.
    • Tennessee State's defense is slightly better: +0.332 EPA allowed/play versus UT Martin's +0.392.
    • Tate Surber and Daylin Lee are listed as the starting quarterbacks for this matchup.
    • UT Martin has the rest edge: 14 days since its last game versus seven for Tennessee State.
  4. Game total under 46.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on DraftKings

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent offenses: UT Martin -0.081 EPA/play and Tennessee State -0.132; scoring averages are 21.2 and 16.0.
    • Under support strengthened from -110 opener to Pinnacle -127 while the total stayed 46.5.
    • Outdoor Nissan Stadium and regional rain/gust reports provide a situational under modifier.
    • Both defenses allowed 0.392 EPA/play for UT Martin and 0.333 for Tennessee State in charted games.
  5. Tennessee State Tigers to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both teams are 1-4, while UT Martin's last-five scoring margin is only 4.8 points better.
    • Tennessee State is at home and UT Martin has a 0-3 2025 record with 34 points scored and 111 allowed.
    • UT Martin's schedule strength may be materially better, especially after facing two FBS opponents.
  6. Tennessee State +8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • UT Martin's first three 2026 losses were by 45, 24, and 23; Tennessee State's latest loss was only 7, making -8.5 look inflated.
    • UT Martin also lost to Austin Peay by 23, while Tennessee State is home; the current small-sample form does not justify this favorite margin.
    • Pinnacle shows the same Tennessee State +8.5 at -115; ProphetX offers +113, a substantially better price on the same side.
    • Most likely loss: UT Martin's offense wins field position and turns this into a 9+ point result before Tennessee State can answer.
Show all 7 picks
  1. UT Martin Skyhawks to win
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The live deficit is only one score, 14-7 at 14:07 of Q2, leaving substantial time for the pregame favorite's strength to reassert.
    • My live-adjusted UT Martin win estimate is 50%, a 7.26-point cushion over the graded contract price.
    • No confirmed roster-change signal was surfaced; the projection treats the early score as a noisy state update rather than a proven personnel reversal.
    • Most likely loss: Tennessee State's early control is genuine, its offense keeps winning downs, and UT Martin never closes the deficit.

Questions

Who won UT Martin vs. Tennessee State?

The UT Martin won 42–28 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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