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Coastal Carolina vs. MarshallFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalJoan C. Edwards Stadium
Coastal Carolina1–4
27–21Final
Marshall3–2
Score by period
Team1234T
CCU31014027
MRSH0071421

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 58.5 total points 53¢

Why Drift likes it: Model 57.0% under: five-game scoring cross-average projects 53.5 points from Marshall 22.2 PF/35.0 PA and Coastal 24.8 PF/25.0 PA.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 14-6 on this game · +38% return

  1. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers to win3 models agree
    +170%Won

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, CFB HunterV2 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Five-game sample: Coastal allows +0.1154 EPA/play versus Marshall’s +0.2254, a 0.1100 defensive-allowance edge.
    • Latest boxes led with Deuce Bailey and Carlos Del Rio-Wilson; Marshall’s official preview names both, with no same-day X injury signal.
    • Coastal is 1-4 and has allowed at least 31 points in three of its last four games.
    CFB HunterV2
    • 51% model win probability versus 36.5% contract price: +14.5 percentage points.
    • Coastal's recent defensive EPA allowed rate (0.1154) is materially better than Marshall's (0.2254).
    • Marshall has home field and the commercial spread market implies a sizable home advantage, contrary to the predictor.
    Long Way Home
    • Marshall's five-game defense has allowed +0.2254 EPA/play versus Coastal's +0.1154, a 0.110-point defensive gap the market may underweight.
    • Coastal averages 24.8 points per game against Marshall's 22.2, while Marshall allows 35.0 versus Coastal's 25.0.
    • Most likely loss: Marshall's home advantage and better +0.0913 offensive EPA/play sustain control despite its defensive leakage.
  2. Game total under 58.53 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, CFB HunterV2 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Our conservative scoring blend projects 55 points, 3.5 below the 58.5 line (about 6% projection separation).
    • Under hit in 7 of each team's last 10 games at 58.5; Coastal is 5-for-5 under in its last five.
    • Marshall's defense has allowed 0.2001 EPA/play over the recent window, creating a path to an efficient home scoring day.
    CFB HunterV2
    • 61% model under probability versus a 52% takeable price: +9 percentage points.
    • The teams' last-five scoring averages combine to 54.0 points, below the 58.5 threshold.
    • Marshall's defense has allowed 0.2254 EPA per play recently, creating real over potential.
    Long Way Home
    • Coastal Carolina's five 2026 game totals are 55, 36, 52, 51, and 55; none reached 58.5.
    • The five Coastal/Marshall totals average 55.2 points, 3.3 below this threshold.
    • Marshall's recent totals include 71 and 62, so its offense can produce a fast over by itself.
  3. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers spread +4.52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, D1 Winner
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Efficiency convergence favors the dog: Coastal's five-game offense averages +0.0589 EPA/play against Marshall's +0.2254 defensive EPA allowed, while Coastal's .1355 explosive rate exceeds Marshall's .0992.
    • The +4.5 rung sits above key 3; a conservative home-field-adjusted margin mean of Marshall +2.5 leaves Coastal covering 54.7% of the distribution.
    • Most likely loss: Marshall's home edge and stronger .4823 current success rate produce a win by five or more.
    D1 Winner
    • Coastal allows 0.115 EPA/play versus Marshall's 0.225 through five 2026 games.
    • Deuce Bailey is officially expected to start; 1,267 yards, 12 TD, and 2 INT this season.
    • Marshall has home field and the market moved from roughly -4 to -4.5 against Coastal.
  4. Under 58.5 total points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 57.0% under: five-game scoring cross-average projects 53.5 points from Marshall 22.2 PF/35.0 PA and Coastal 24.8 PF/25.0 PA.
    • Marshall's current-season offense is 0.091 EPA/play with a .482 success rate; Coastal is 0.060 EPA/play and .441 success, while both teams' recent scoring profiles stay below 58.5.
    • Most likely loss: Marshall and Coastal both outperform their five-game scoring baselines, pushing the game above 58.5.
  5. Marshall Thundering Herd −9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Novig

    Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle main spread de-vigs to 49.0% for Marshall -4.5; shifting across the 7 key subtracts about 5 points.
    • Official previews identify Marshall QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson and Coastal QB Deuce Bailey; Pinnacle and Novig both show the game line.
    • The 44.0% rung estimate is structural, not a directly published Pinnacle -9.5 fair quote.
  6. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers wins 1st HalfFavorite
    +20%Won

    Taken at 83¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • live Pinnacle has Marshall -194 / Coastal +169 full-game; I applied a conservative first-half state adjustment with an 8.0-point raised bar.
    • Live state is Coastal 9-0 at 12:31 Q2; current passing rows show Bailey 5/10 with 1 TD/1 INT and Del Rio-Wilson 2/6 with 3 INT.
    • Season-to-date halftime margins were Coastal -0.8 and Marshall -6.8; the current lead and turnover state dominate the pregame baseline.
    • DERIVED REFERENCE, not a genuine independent first-half sharp quote; the 8.0-point disagreement bar is intentionally raised.
Show all 15 picks
  1. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers spread +5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PFF supports Coastal's structural edge: 77.4 overall and 76.2 defense versus Marshall's 70.6 and 62.6.
    • The matchup's defensive gap is meaningful: Coastal allows +0.1154 EPA/play, 0.1100 better than Marshall's +0.2254.
    • Official team pages and latest passing boxes cross-check Deuce Bailey and Carlos Del Rio-Wilson as the quarterbacks; sportsbook reference is Marshall -4.5.
    • Coastal is 1-4 and has allowed 31-plus points in three of its last four games.
  2. 1st-half total under 29.5 points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projection is roughly 22, 25 first-half points from recent pace and points-per-drive inputs.
    • Coastal averaged 1.91 points per drive and .441 success rate over its last five; Marshall averaged 1.71 and .483.
    • Combined recent scoring averaged 47.0 full-game points, while both teams’ explosive rates stayed modest: .136 Coastal, .100 Marshall.
    • The warehouse lacks first-half-specific drive and scoring splits, so the projection extrapolates full-game PPD into the opening script.
  3. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +4.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 62% model cover probability versus a 51% takeable price: +11 percentage points.
    • The CFB predictor projects essentially no margin gap (Marshall -0.202 points), while Coastal owns the stronger 2026 team and defensive grades.
    • Coastal's 0.4378 recent offensive success rate is paired with Marshall's 0.2254 defensive EPA allowed rate.
    • Marshall's home environment and faster recent pace can create a multi-score swing.
  4. Marshall Thundering Herd spread −9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • QB gate cleared: latest passing boxes led with Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (37 attempts) and Deuce Bailey (33); official Oct. 8/9 previews identify both quarterbacks.
    • Most likely loss: Marshall wins by nine or fewer, or Coastal Carolina wins outright.
  5. Total Points over 58.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX team-total anchors are Marshall 31.5 and Coastal Carolina 27.5; their 59-point sum supports the full-game over.
    • Defensive EPA allowed is positive for both teams: Coastal Carolina +0.1154 and Marshall +0.2254 per play across five games.
    • QB gate cleared live: official Marshall preview names Carlos Del Rio-Wilson; the latest passing rows also identify him and Deuce Bailey as the respective leaders.
    • Most likely loss: Coastal Carolina stalls below its 27.5 team-total anchor and the combined score finishes 58 or lower.
  6. Marshall Thundering Herd first-half spread NO 17.5Favorite
    +9%Won

    Taken at 92¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's live full-game spread is Marshall -4.5; the scaled first-half center is approximately Marshall -2.5.
    • Own 2024-2026 CFB final-margin sample: 2,611 games, empirical SD 15.68; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 11.09, not 7.84.
    • NO REFERENCE at the exact rung: this is model-only after scaling, so the brief caps it at EXPLORATORY; the 92-cent venue self-reference implies only 90% NO at the midpoint.
  7. Game total over 57.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Three recent CFB positions agree on Over 57.5: azntek02, cooljit, and Dredgerton.
    • The 2-point probability cushion is small; a near-efficient total can lose on ordinary variance.
  8. TJ Lester to score a touchdown
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +130 on DraftKings

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3 TD-producing appearances in 5 2026 games: two rushing and one receiving.
    • 22 carries across those five games, with a touchdown in 3 of 5 appearances.
    • Coastal's recent defense allowed +0.1611 EPA per play over its last 10 games, a favorable environment.
    • Five-game current-season sample is the fallback rather than a verified 10-game hit-rate sample.
  9. Game first-half total over 29.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Weeks 1, 5 drive ledger: Coastal averaged 6.0 and Marshall 6.6 first-half drives; combined 12.6 versus 24.2 full-game drives.
    • Weather is a real possession cut: live forecast shows 85% rain, 14-mph wind, and 23-mph gusts; the modeled 8% haircut may be too small.

Questions

Who won Coastal Carolina vs. Marshall?

The Coastal Carolina won 27–21 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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