Tulane vs. ArmyFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMichie Stadium

Tulane2–2

17–20Final

Army2–2

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
TULN	0	3	7	7	17
ARMY	7	0	0	13	20

Top model pick, graded

Won

Tulane Green Wave spread +3.5 48¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 5-10 on this game · −33% return

Tulane Green Wave spread +3.53 models agree
+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US
3 modelsCFB Heater, CFB HunterV2 +1
Why 3 models like it
CFB Heater
- Army leads the recent data: 0.361 offensive EPA/play and 58.1% success versus Tulane’s 0.008 and 40.4%.
CFB HunterV2
- The CFB predictor projects Army by only 1.85 points, leaving a meaningful cushion at +3.5.
- Tulane's recent defense EPA allowed is +0.0544 versus Army's +0.1169, narrowing the matchup gap.
- Army's 91.9 PFF team grade and 33.25 points per game can produce a multi-score home win.
Heater Two-Hour
- No independent model or confirmed late availability edge supports the signal; Army wins by four or more and the contract loses.
Tulane Green Wave to win3 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 39¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, CFB HunterV2 +1
Why 3 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System
- PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (Grade B): qualifying edge clears the 70-point fire bar.
- Own CFB predictor gives Tulane 44.6%; ProphetX price is 39.37¢, a 5.2-point projection edge.
- Tulane is only 2-3 in its last five and 2-2 this season; recent form is mixed.
CFB HunterV2
- Model assigns Tulane a 45% win probability versus a 38¢ contract: +7 points.
- CFB predictor gives Army only a 55.4% win baseline; this is a value price, not a blind upset.
- Only four 2026 games per team; early-season estimates are noisy.
Long Way Home
- ProphetX is three American-price points better than Pinnacle's +165 reference; the sharp reference supports the upset direction.
- Projection cross-check: Tulane's defense allowed .118 EPA/play versus Army's .133 through four 2026 games; Tulane's 2025 margin was +3.8 versus Army's +2.2.
- Most likely loss: Army's .341 offensive EPA/play average through four games overwhelms Tulane at home.
Army Black Knights spread −3.52 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsDrift, ProphetX CFB Lines
Why 2 models like it
Drift
- Army's 2026 offense leads Tulane in EPA/play .3399-.0514, success rate .5632-.4009, and explosive rate .1517-.1155.
- Army averages 33.25 points and allows 19.75; Tulane averages 18.75 and allows 23.25 through four games.
- Most likely loss: Tulane's stronger defensive EPA profile and home-field disadvantage to Army's offense keep the game within three.
ProphetX CFB Lines
- Load-bearing efficiency gap favors Army: current off EPA/play .340 vs Tulane .051 and points/drive 3.26 vs 1.72; the 3.5 key-number rung preserves the home edge.
- Four 2026 advanced rows per team and current starting-QB confirmation (Kadin Semonza, Cale Hellums) provide convergence between the margin distribution and efficiency data.
- Most likely loss: Tulane's passing game exploits Army's .133 defensive EPA/play allowed and turns the matchup into a one-score road result.
Total points over 48
−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Both offenses operate quickly: 25.61 and 24.58 seconds per play; current points per drive combine to 4.975.
- Army’s 92.9 PFF offense grade versus Tulane’s 68.2 offense grade supports the mismatch; Pinnacle’s reference total is 49.
- Army’s permissive +0.133 defensive EPA allowed creates scoring variance but does not guarantee Tulane finishing drives.
Army Black Knights spread −3
0%Push
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Army’s 2026 offense averages +0.341 EPA/play and 56.3% success over four games versus Tulane’s +0.089 defensive EPA allowed.
- Tulane’s offense averages +0.053 EPA/play and 40.1% success versus Army’s +0.133 defensive EPA allowed; net efficiency still favors Army.
- PFF’s 2026 team card favors Army 91.9, 74.3 overall and 92.9, 68.2 on offense.
- Most likely loss: Army’s +0.133 defensive EPA allowed can let Tulane sustain drives and cover.
Game total over 43.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- all three measures align, raw stakes clear the few-hundred-dollar check; backing over 43.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- SHARP REFERENCE is secondary only: captured Pinnacle showed 44 with over -129; the venue self-reference remains the primary read.
- ProphetX is the only depth source: a stale quote, cancellation, or one participant can erase this venue-self-reference signal.

Show all 11 picks

Under 48.5 total
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Under 48.5 has no push; exactly 48 total points is a win, while Under 48 pushes.
- CFB finals, 2014-25: exactly 48 points occurred 299 times, a 2.883% push-bucket asymmetry.
- ProphetX Under 48 -103 versus Under 48.5 -102, only one American price point separates the contracts.
- The 2.883% bucket is all CFB 2014-25, not matchup-specific; Army-Tulane's scoring distribution may differ.
Army Black Knights over 24.5 team points
−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- +0.2225 opponent-adjusted EPA/play: Army offense .3399 minus Tulane defensive allowance .1174, with four qualifying games for each side.
- Army is run-heavy and its pace data are slow; one 2.37-second row is malformed, so the two-clock possession read is unreliable and caps this at 0.5u.
Army Black Knights −4
−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3, 3; two of three measures support the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it configuration, with $600 on the thin side clearing the size rule of thumb.
- Only two measures support the read; book-level count does not corroborate Army over Tulane.
Game total over 51.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- book_levels are Over 3 and Under 3: two of three measures agree, with few-hundred-dollar raw size on the thin side.
- Directional coherence: backing Over 51.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- The third measure does not corroborate: both sides have 3 book_levels.
Game total under 48
+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, ProphetX team-total rungs center at Tulane 17.5 plus Army 26.5, four points below the 48-point game-total rung.
- Army's three usable recent pace readings were 29.95, 34.61, and 35.50 seconds per play; its option tempo suppresses possessions.
- Army's 59-point Bryant outlier removed, its other three recent scores average 24.7; Tulane's latest four average 18.8, keeping a conservative blend below 48.
- Tulane scored 28 and Army scored 29 in their latest non-outlier games; a normal offensive game can still clear this low-50s neighborhood.

Questions

Who won Tulane vs. Army?

The Army won 20–17 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.