Idaho vs. Weber StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalStewart Stadium
Idaho1–4
27–38Final
Weber State3–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDAH | 0 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 27 |
| WEBE | 14 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 38 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUnder 70.5 total points −110
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Fair total 65.5, five points below FanDuel’s posted 70.5.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-1 on this game · +73% return
- Under 70.5 total points+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair total 65.5, five points below FanDuel’s posted 70.5.
- Idaho averages 27.8 points and Weber 37.5 through 2026, a 65.3-point raw scoring baseline.
- Latest warehouse EPA snapshots show positive offense for both, but Weber’s defensive EPA allowed was just 0.0756.
- Biggest risk: both teams’ last two totals were high, Idaho 80/69 and Weber 85/76.
- Weber State Wildcats to win+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model 57% vs 40% contract price (2.50x implied multiplier): +17 percentage points.
- Weber's current-season team grade is 88.0 versus Idaho's 72.1; defense leads 86.8 to 60.5.
- Weber is 3-3 with a near-neutral recent margin; Idaho is 1-4 and -12.6 per game over the recent window.
- Weber has allowed 226 points in six games, so the defensive edge may be overstated by opponent mix.
- Weber State +3+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Weber +3 pushes, rather than loses, if Idaho wins by exactly 3; Weber +3.5 would win.
- point Idaho win pushes this contract, not wins it; Idaho by 4 or more loses it.
- Weber State Wildcats +3+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX prices Weber +1.5 at 46.30¢ (+116) but Weber +3 at 46.95¢ (+113): 1.5 extra points cost only 0.65¢ of probability.
- the claim is based on ProphetX's compressed spread ladder, not payout size.
- Supporting projection: Weber's last three offensive EPA/play average was about +0.040 versus Idaho's last two at about -0.017.
- Most likely loss: Idaho wins by four or more, overcoming the three-point cushion.
- Game total over 69.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, ProphetX prices over 69.5 at -111 (52.61¢) but over 70.5 at -158 (61.24¢), an impossible probability inversion across adjacent totals.
- ProphetX's under 69.5 is +100 (50.00¢), reinforcing the ladder contradiction rather than a normal half-point distribution.
- Pinnacle lists over 69.5 at -115; ProphetX improves that same-line reference to -111.
- Most likely loss: a 35, 34-type result lands on 69 or fewer, with the half-point offering no push protection.
Questions
Who won Idaho vs. Weber State?
The Weber State won 38–27 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.