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Maryland vs. Ohio StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalOhio Stadium
Maryland2-3
16–45Final
Ohio State4-1
Score by period
Team1234T
MD376016
OSU14177745

Top model pick, graded

Won

Maryland Terrapins spread +29.5 44¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 12-14 on this game · −12% return

  1. Ohio State Buckeyes spread −323 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Key Number CFB +1
    Why 3 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Efficiency convergence favors Ohio State: current offense averages +0.32 EPA/play and 3.59 points/drive versus Maryland’s +0.13 and 2.49.
    • Malik Washington and Julian Sayin are same-day listed starters and match Maryland’s and Ohio State’s latest pass-attempt leaders.
    • Most likely loss: Maryland stays within 31, or Ohio State wins by exactly 32 and the whole-number rung pushes.
    Key Number CFB
    • Ohio State leads Maryland 0.32 to 0.13 in 2026 offensive EPA/play and has the stronger defense: -0.09 versus -0.04 EPA/play allowed.
    • PFF's 2026 team card favors Ohio State 96.5 overall to Maryland's 83.1; sportsbooks corroborate Ohio State around -32.5.
    • Ohio State's 2026 scoring range includes only 23 points at Texas, so the 31-point baseline has substantial game-script variance.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • cfb_predictor projects Ohio State by 35.34 points, 3.34 points beyond this fallback rung.
    • Ohio State's defensive EPA allowed is -0.09 versus Maryland's -0.04 across five 2026 games each.
    • Likeliest loss path: Maryland stays within 32 through a backdoor score after Ohio State controls the game.
  2. Game total over 56.52 models agree
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    2 modelsD1 Winner, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • Ohio State averages 42.2 points and Maryland 30.4; the 72.6-point combined baseline clears the posted total.
    • Ohio State leads at +0.32 EPA/play and 0.54 success rate; Maryland's faster opponent-adjusted offensive profile supports scoring upside.
    • Maryland scored only 23, 3, and 26 points in its last three games; Ohio State allows 12.6 points per game.
    Long Way Home
    • Ohio State averaged 42.2 points and Maryland 30.4 through five games: a 72.6 combined baseline is 16.1 above the total.
    • Combined offensive EPA is +0.45 per play; Ohio State's 54.2% and Maryland's 49.0% success rates support sustained scoring.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State controls the game early, Maryland stalls, and the total finishes at 56 or lower.
  3. Ohio State −33.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −117 on BetOnline

    2 modelsRnj, Resting Money
    Why 2 models like it
    Rnj
    • Spread market ranges from Ohio State -33.5 at BetOnline.ag to -34.5 at other books; -33.5 preserves one point.
    • Last-four matchup net EPA/play edge for Ohio State: +0.09, above the +0.08 gate.
    • EPA clears the minimum gate narrowly and misses the +0.12 high-conviction threshold.
    Resting Money
    • Backing Ohio State -33.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Venue self-reference is the only reference; no independent sharp-book check or projection model supports this call.
  4. Maryland Terrapins spread +29.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  5. Under 56.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Possession convergence: current averages are 70.2 Ohio State plays and 75.2 Maryland plays, with PPD 3.70 and 2.49; opponent-adjusted projection is 55.2 total.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State's explosive offense creates early short fields and the game reaches 57 points.
  6. Over 56.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted scoring rates project roughly 62, 63 total points before conservative blowout discounts.
    • Current explosive rates are 0.16 for Ohio State and 0.14 for Maryland, supporting the Over tail.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State controls the game while Maryland stalls, producing a one-sided score below 57.
Show all 22 picks
  1. Game total over 55.5 points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game actual totals average 55.8 for Ohio State and 60.6 for Maryland.
    • Model total center 59.0 with SD 16 gives about 59% over 55.5.
    • The 56.5 Pinnacle anchor implies only 50.9% over after devigging; our estimate is higher.
    • Both team samples cover only five games and opponent quality varies substantially.
  2. Ohio State Buckeyes NO over 27.5-point winning margin
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model margin center 30.5, below the 32.5-point Pinnacle anchor.
    • SD 16 gives about 43% for Ohio State not winning by 28 or more.
    • Anchor-only Maryland cover probability is above the sharp fair probability at +32.5.
    • Five-game samples are thin and Maryland’s schedule mixes cupcakes with two severe Big Ten losses.
  3. Ohio State Buckeyes first-half spread NO 27.5Favorite
    +35%Won

    Taken at 74¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's pregame Ohio State -31 full-game spread scales to a 15.5-point first-half mean; live 14-3 Q1 updates it to roughly 17.
    • 2,605 completed FBS games from 2024-2026 produced SD_full 15.67; sqrt-half scaling gives SD_1H 11.08, not 7.83.
    • My mean-plus-SD distribution plus the college 28-point mass (79 of 2,605 games) puts Ohio State over 27.5 near 20%, so NO is about 80%.
    • Ohio State needs only 17 more net points in Q2 to clear 27.5 from the live 11-point margin; one explosive quarter defeats the NO.
  4. Ohio State Buckeyes first-half spread NO 23.5
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game Ohio State -32.5, scaled and adjusted for first-half script, gives a +17.2-point mean.
    • At the exact 23.5 rung, the mean-plus-SD model gives Ohio State over probability 27.2%, or NO probability 72.8%.
    • Kalshi spread is 0.02 with 144.54 contracts traded; 23.5 is away from the computed college margin masses at 3, 7, 10, 14 and 17.
    • Five-game form is thin and includes Maryland’s 62-0 opener; opponent-strength adjustment remains noisy.
  5. Total points under 56.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Defensive counter: Ohio State allows -0.09 EPA/play and Maryland -0.04, reducing the chance both offenses sustain an efficient shootout.
    • PROE is positive for both offenses, but the pace feed contains extreme single-game outliers; the projection favors a modestly lower possession-quality game rather than a strong under.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State's +0.32 offensive EPA/play and 3.71 points per drive produce 40-plus points before Maryland contributes enough.
  6. Ohio State Buckeyes spread −31
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup gaps favor Ohio State: its offense is +0.36 EPA/play above Maryland’s defensive allowance, while Maryland’s offense faces Ohio State’s -0.09 defensive allowance.
    • PFF current-season grades support the efficiency gap: Ohio State leads 96.5, 83.1 overall, 93.0, 71.0 offense, and 92.0, 78.7 defense.
    • Personnel gate cleared: Malik Washington led Maryland with 44 pass attempts and Julian Sayin led Ohio State with 27 last week; same-day coverage identifies both as the quarterbacks.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State wins comfortably, then second-half rotation or conservative possessions leaves the 31-point cover short.
  7. Ohio State Buckeyes −33.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects Ohio State by 35.34; versus -33.5, the 1.84-point margin surplus is a 5.5% projection edge.
    • Ohio State covered 7 of its last 10 tracked DK spreads, including 4 of 5 in 2026; Maryland covered 2 of 10.
    • DraftKings -108 implies 51.9%; my 54% cover estimate is approximately +4% expected value.
    • The model edge is only 1.84 points, so a backdoor Maryland cover remains highly live.
  8. Maryland Terrapins +33.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 58% versus Polymarket US's 54¢ takeable YES price: approximately +4 percentage points.
    • Current-season scoring-margin form is Ohio State +29.6 per game versus Maryland +0.2 through five games.
    • Ohio State's strong home profile still projects a win, but the model's expected margin remains below 33.5.
    • Ohio State's recent offense averages 0.26 EPA/play and 3.19 points per drive, creating a genuine blowout path.
  9. Malik Washington over 0.5 passing touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +110 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington recorded at least one passing touchdown in 8 of his last 10 appearances, including 4 of 5 this season.
    • FanDuel lists Washington for this game and the official availability report does not flag him out.
    • FanDuel +110 implies 47.6%; my estimate is 58.0%, a 10.4-point probability margin.
    • Ohio State's recent defense is strong at -0.08 EPA allowed per play, which can suppress red-zone efficiency.
  10. Malik Washington over 175.5 passing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 of his last 10 appearances cleared 175.5 passing yards; he is 4-for-5 over this line in 2026.
    • FanDuel lists Washington for this game and the official availability report does not flag him out.
    • FanDuel -114 implies 53.8%; my matchup-adjusted hit estimate is 64.0%.
    • Ohio State has allowed -0.08 defensive EPA per play over its recent window, an elite matchup against the over.
  11. Game total under 56.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair total 53.5, a three-point cushion below the 56.5 market.
    • Ohio State averages 0.31 offensive EPA/play; Maryland’s offense fell to 23 points at Nebraska after 3 at UCLA.
    • Ohio State’s season pace is 31.38 seconds/play in its latest game, supporting a slower, clock-draining script.
    • Ohio State’s explosive offense can clear the number alone if Maryland’s defense repeats its recent breakdowns.
  12. Game first-half total over 34.5 points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 36.5 first-half points from 16 already scored, 28 opening plays, and roughly 70 projected first-half plays.
    • Season-to-date pace: Maryland 75.2 plays/game and Ohio State 70.2; 72.7 combined first-half plays is the historical baseline.
    • Mean positive PROE is 15.7% and mean explosive rate 15.5%; their average supplies a specific 15.6% first-half scoring-rate uplift.
    • 72% precipitation can reduce remaining possessions; realized opening pace may not persist.
  13. Game first-half total over 30.5 points
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
  14. Game total under 56.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ohio State’s defense allows -0.09 EPA/play and Maryland’s latest three FBS games averaged only 17.3 points (23, 3, 26).
    • The five-game profiles show Maryland at 0.13 offensive EPA/play versus Ohio State’s 92.0 PFF defensive grade; Maryland’s 19.17-second pace limits sustained scoring.
    • QB gate cleared this wake: Malik Washington led Maryland’s latest passing box and is named the starter in official game notes; Ohio State’s official game center lists Julian Sayin at QB.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State’s offense creates 57 or more points through explosive plays, turnovers, or short fields.
  15. Maryland Terrapins spread +31
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ohio State’s five-game profile averages 42.2 points scored and 12.6 allowed; Maryland averages 30.4 scored and 30.2 allowed.
    • A simple offense-defense blend points to roughly a 15-point margin before home-field and opponent adjustments; 31 remains a large cushion.
    • Maryland’s recent 23-48 and 3-54 losses create blowout risk, but the market must overcome the full 31-point threshold; my cover estimate is 56%.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State creates short fields, Maryland’s offense collapses, and the Buckeyes win by 31 or more.
  16. Total Points over 56.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game FBS-only 2026 sample: Maryland averages 22.5 and Ohio State 38.75 points, a 61.25-point combined baseline.
    • Maryland’s FBS defense has allowed +0.09 EPA/play, creating a second scoring path despite Ohio State’s strong -0.04 FBS defensive mark.
    • QB gate cleared: Malik Washington led Maryland with 44 latest pass attempts and is named in Maryland’s official preview; Julian Sayin led Ohio State with 27 and is confirmed as the current starter by Ohio State’s live roster profile and current preview.
    • Most likely loss: Ohio State’s defense suppresses Maryland and a game script around 45-10 finishes at 55 or fewer.

Questions

Who won Maryland vs. Ohio State?

Ohio State won 45-16 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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