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Duke vs. Georgia TechFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBobby Dodd Stadium
Duke4–0
25–28Final
Georgia Tech1–3
Score by period
Team1234T
DUKE0108725
GT777728

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 43.5 total points 58¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-21 on this game · −35% return

  1. Duke Blue Devils spread −4.54 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    4 modelsSaturday Board, ProphetX CFB Lines +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Saturday Board
    • Exact-rung Pinnacle is Duke -4.5 -105 / Georgia Tech +4.5 -107; devigged Duke cover probability is 49.8%.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia Tech wins outright or Duke wins by four points or fewer.
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Load-bearing efficiency gap favors Duke: +0.271 EPA/play offense and -0.144 defensive EPA allowed versus Georgia Tech's +0.143 and +0.134; the -4.5 rung also clears key 3.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia Tech's home offense converts explosive plays and wins outright or by four or fewer.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Four-game 2026 sample: Duke offense averages +0.2729 EPA/play versus Georgia Tech defense allowing +0.1353; Duke's matchup gap is +0.1376.
    • Georgia Tech offense averages +0.1428 EPA/play against Duke defense allowing -0.1409, a +0.2837 defensive matchup advantage for Duke.
    • Duke has three official offensive-line players listed out; protection or rotation changes could reduce the efficiency edge.
    Key Number CFB
    • Duke's 2026 offense is +0.273 EPA/play versus Georgia Tech's +0.143; Duke defense is -0.141 allowed versus Tech's +0.135.
    • Duke is 4-0 with a +25.25 average margin; Georgia Tech is 1-3 with a +1.0 recent margin, and PFF grades favor Duke 93.6, 82.7.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia Tech wins outright or Duke wins by four or fewer, failing the -4.5 cover.
  2. Duke Blue Devils to winFavorite4 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −205 on FanDuel

    4 modelsD1 Winner, Saturday Board Pairs +2
    Why 4 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • Duke averages +0.286 offensive EPA/play and -0.141 defensive EPA/play; Georgia Tech is +0.143 and +0.135.
    • Duke’s current team grade is 93.6 versus Georgia Tech’s 82.7, with an 86.6, 80.2 defensive-grade edge.
    • Duke’s original starter Lawrence Gardner is out; Eget’s ACC sample remains only four games.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Four-game 2026 sample: Duke averages +0.2568 EPA/play versus Georgia Tech +0.1428; Duke defense allows -0.1409 versus GT +0.1353.
    • PFF favors Duke 93.6, 82.7 overall and 82.4, 69.1 on offense; latest box and official game center support Walker Eget.
    • Only four current-season games per team; EPA, success, and explosive rates remain opponent-sensitive.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Duke is 4-0 with a +25.2 recent average margin; Georgia Tech is 1-3 with a +1.0 recent average margin.
    • Duke's 93.6 team grade and 86.6 defense grade exceed Georgia Tech's 82.7 and 80.2.
    • The moneyline moved sharply against Duke, from -265 opening to -205 current.
    Key Number CFB
    • Duke's current-season profile is +0.2568 offensive EPA/play and -0.1409 defensive EPA allowed/play; Georgia Tech is +0.1456 and +0.1238.
    • Duke is 4-0 with a +25.2 recent scoring margin versus Georgia Tech's 1-3 and +1.0; the venue ladder direction is coherent with that gap.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia Tech wins outright despite Duke's efficiency and form advantages.
  3. Game total over 45.52 models agree
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP composite 72/100: model total is approximately 50.1, about 10% above the 45.5 posted line.
    • The last five listed team games produce 7 overs in 10 team-game observations at 45.5: Duke 3/5, Georgia Tech 4/5.
    • Duke's current four-game sample is only 2/4 over 45.5, so the recent over signal is not uniform.
    Long Way Home
    • Duke averages 36.25 points and Georgia Tech 27.0 through four 2026 games.
    • Duke averages 0.270 offensive EPA/play; Georgia Tech allows +0.135 defensive EPA/play, a favorable matchup for sustained scoring.
    • Most likely loss: Duke's starting QB Lawrence Gardner is out and the replacement fails to sustain the offense, leaving Georgia Tech below 20 points.
  4. Game total under 45.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, CFB HunterV2
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Book levels are Under 3, Over 3; two of three measures agree, and the thin side clears the few-hundred-dollar check.
    • Venue self-reference only; no independent order-flow or projection confirmation.
    CFB HunterV2
    • The independent score estimate is about 43, 44 points, below the 45.5 threshold.
    • Georgia Tech averages 27.0 points but allows 26.0; its 0.143 offense EPA trails Duke's 0.273 and several GT receivers are out.
    • Duke averages 36.25 points and Georgia Tech has multiple defensive-line absences, creating over risk if Duke reaches efficiency.
  5. Duke Blue Devils over 27.5 team pointsHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +131 on Pinnacle

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent-adjusted EPA delta +0.075: Duke offense +0.257 minus Georgia Tech defensive allowance +0.182.
    • The current sample is only four games per side; it clears the full-tier gate but remains early-season data.
  6. Over 43.5 total points
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Show all 23 picks
  1. Game total over 45.5 points
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 48¢ graded price versus my 51% estimate still clears the 3-point edge gate.
    • Sharp total is 44, 44.5; this rung is only one point above the anchor.
    • Recent Duke game totals averaged 47.25; recent Georgia Tech game totals averaged 48.0.
    • The sharp anchor is below this rung, so the model edge is modest and vulnerable to market efficiency.
  2. Kevin Roche Jr. over 4.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +128 on BetOnline

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Target share was 25.0%, 18.2%, and 35.9% over the last three games; mean 26.4%, CV 27.7%.
    • Share rose 43.6% first-to-last while yards per target fell 6.6 to 4.2, the required usage-production divergence.
    • Georgia Tech averaged 33.7 pass attempts, 51.5% pass rate, and positive PROE across those three games.
    • Most likely loss: Duke leads early, Georgia Tech repeats its 22-pass game, and Roche finishes with four or fewer receptions.
  3. Duke Blue Devils spread −6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  4. Dalen Penson over 37.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four 2026 appearances cleared 37.5: 73, 58, 58, and 52 receiving yards.
    • Penson averages 60.3 yards, 22.8 above this line, with 3-6 receptions each game.
    • Georgia Tech's recent offense posts a 52.5% pass rate and 0.1427 explosive-play rate.
    • Duke's 75.9 coverage grade can compress Penson's catch efficiency and yards after catch.
  5. Alberto Mendoza over 189.5 passing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four 2026 appearances cleared 189.5: 268, 249, 221, and 237 yards.
    • Mendoza averages 243.8 yards, 54.3 above this line.
    • Georgia Tech has a 52.5% recent pass rate and 0.5086 success rate.
    • Duke carries an 86.6 PFF defense grade and could pressure Mendoza into shorter drives.
  6. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets alternate spread −3.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +262 on DraftKings

    CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 days
  7. Game 1st-half total over 23.5 points
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game 2026 averages: Duke 3.15 points/drive, Georgia Tech 2.22; combined baseline is 5.37.
    • Duke posts +0.273 offensive EPA/play; Georgia Tech allows +0.135 defensive EPA/play, favoring Duke's opening script.
    • The teams average 72.5 and 68.5 plays with 30.4- and 26.4-second pace; bottom-up projection is approximately 26 first-half points.
    • Only four 2026 games per team; opponent-quality adjustment and first-half splits are limited.
  8. Duke −7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are Duke 3, Georgia Tech 3; two of three measures agree, with substantial thin-side size.
    • Venue self-reference only; no independent order-flow or projection confirmation.
  9. Duke Blue Devils spread over 5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Duke is 4-0 with a +25.25 average margin; Georgia Tech is 1-3 with a +1.0 average margin.
    • Duke leads current-season offense EPA 0.273 to 0.143 and defense EPA allowed is -0.141 versus Georgia Tech's +0.135.
    • PFF team grade is 93.6 for Duke versus 82.7 for Georgia Tech; Duke's offense grade is 82.4 versus 69.1.
    • Duke QB Lawrence Gardner is officially out, while the remaining quarterback starter is not explicitly confirmed.
  10. Duke Blue Devils −7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Duke -7 wins by 8+, pushes on exactly 7, and loses only below 7.
    • ProphetX prices Duke -7 at +140 versus Duke -7.5 at +154: only a 14-American-point concession to remove the push.
    • Pinnacle also prices Duke -7, at +136; ProphetX offers four American points more.
    • A push is not a win: Duke must win by 8+; a Duke loss or win by 6 or fewer loses.
  11. Total Points over 48
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • four-game 2026 scoring averages are Duke 36.25 plus Georgia Tech 27.0, a 63.25-point baseline.
    • QB gate cleared: Walker Eget and Alberto Mendoza led their latest passing rows; Duke's official game page lists Eget, while live search confirms Mendoza's current role.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia Tech repeats a low offensive output and Duke's strong defense holds the game below 49.
  12. Duke Blue Devils first-half spread NO 2.5
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,601 CFB finals from 2024, 26 give SD_full 15.67; sqrt-half scaling gives 11.08, and the remaining 14:20 gives approximately 7.66.
    • At the exact 2.5 rung, a live-state mean near +0.4 Duke points gives smooth P(Duke margin ≤2.5) ≈60.8%; a conservative discrete-mass haircut publishes 59%.
    • live Pinnacle full-game Duke −1.5 agrees directionally with a near-even first-half projection; no independent first-half sharp quote is posted.
    • Current live efficiency is a tiny sample: Georgia Tech has +0.252 EPA/play on 17 plays versus Duke −0.444 on 6; those rates can regress sharply.
  13. Duke Blue Devils first-half spread NO 6.5
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,764 completed 2023, 25 non-preseason CFB games give winning-margin SD_full 14.59; square-root half scaling gives SD_1H 10.32, not 7.30.
    • 2026 profiles show Duke at 0.286 EPA/play and 3.153 points/drive versus Georgia Tech at 0.143 and 2.220; shrinking toward Pinnacle Duke −5 produces μ_1H ≈ +2.8.
    • No directly observed first-half sample; normal scoring omits discrete possessions, correlated drives, and halftime strategy.
  14. 1st-quarter total over 10.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Duke and Georgia Tech averaged 72.5 and 68.5 offensive plays across four 2026 games.
    • Recent points-per-drive averages were 3.15 for Duke and 2.22 for Georgia Tech, supporting roughly 13-14 projected first-quarter points after regression.
    • Both starting quarterbacks are resolved live: Duke's Walker Eget and Georgia Tech's Alberto Mendoza.
    • A first quarter is a tiny sample: one turnover, missed field goal, or explosive play can move the result by a touchdown.
  15. Game first-half total under 23.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season window: four games; combined 141 plays, 22.5 drives, 6.27 plays/drive; pace was Duke 30.66 and Georgia Tech 26.47 seconds/play.
    • Matchup PPD baselines: Duke offense 3.09 / Georgia Tech defense 2.42; Georgia Tech offense 2.51 / Duke defense 0.98.
    • NWS gives broad-area 15, 25 mph wind, 35, 45 mph gusts and heavy rain; the 15% drive cut may be wrong at kickoff.
  16. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets to win
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Live state is tied 7-7 in Q2 with Georgia Tech producing +0.252 EPA/play on 17 plays versus Duke -0.444 on 6 plays.
    • Own live-adjusted win estimate: 52%; the venue's underdog quote has not reflected the tied score and Georgia Tech's early efficiency.
    • Single-leg ticket avoids ProphetX combination tax; reference label is SHARP REFERENCE.
    • Most likely loss: Duke's pregame strength reasserts after halftime and the Blue Devils turn the tie into a multi-score lead.
  17. Duke Blue Devils spread −5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Duke is 4-0 with a +25.3 average margin in the four current-season rows; Georgia Tech is 2-2 at +1.0.
    • Duke's listed aggregate offensive EPA/play is approximately +0.273 versus Georgia Tech's +0.143; Duke's defensive EPA allowed is also materially better.
    • Common-opponent signal: Duke beat Stanford by 28, while Georgia Tech lost to Stanford by 7; the 35-point gap supports a margin above five.
    • Most likely loss: Georgia Tech's home field and rushing game keep the margin to four or fewer.

Questions

Who won Duke vs. Georgia Tech?

The Georgia Tech won 28–25 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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