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Kansas vs. UtahFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalRice-Eccles Stadium
Kansas2-2
24–41Final
Utah4-0
Score by period
Team1234T
KU0177624
UTAH14761441

Top model pick, graded

Won

Utah Utes spread −15.5 51¢

Why Drift likes it: Utah leads four-game offense EPA/play .352 to .090 and success rate .579 to .473.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 12-8 on this game · +16% return

  1. Game total under 49.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    3 modelsD1 Winner, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • 18 mph sustained wind and gusts to 36 mph activate the weather suppression trigger.
    • Kansas averages 0.09 offensive EPA/play and 0.48 success rate in the recent window; Utah allows -0.11 defensive EPA/play.
    • Utah's offense is strong: 0.36 recent offensive EPA/play and 0.57 success rate.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Utah and Kansas defenses both show negative defensive EPA allowed over four games: -0.15 and -0.17, respectively.
    • captured Pinnacle under 49.5 was -116; reference only, not the edge.
    • Raw scoring averages are high: Utah 43.25 points and Kansas 36.0 through four games.
    Long Way Home
    • Kansas produced -0.33 and -0.25 offensive EPA/play against Missouri and Arizona State; its 55-point games came against weaker opposition.
    • Utah allowed 17, 0, 10, and 14 points in its four 2026 games; a Kansas offense below 22 points keeps this total vulnerable.
    • Most likely loss: Utah clears roughly 35 points and Kansas reaches 15 or more, with one late score pushing the game over.
  2. Utah Utes spread −15.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah leads four-game offense EPA/play .352 to .090 and success rate .579 to .473.
    • Starting quarterbacks are confirmed: Devon Dampier for Utah and Isaiah Marshall for Kansas.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas's .181 explosive rate creates enough chunk plays for a backdoor cover at +15.5.
  3. Game total over 49.5
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Tempo GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Possession count load-bearing: 141.0 raw projected plays (74.1 Kansas, 66.9 Utah), weather-adjusted to 136.8 and 21.9 drives (11.1/10.8).
    • Current-season PPD medians 2.86/3.33, opponent-adjusted to 2.29 Kansas and 2.80 Utah; projected total is 52.2.
    • Wind advisory: south wind 17 mph with 32-mph gusts and 30% showers/thunderstorms could erase the possession edge.
  4. Under 49.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Short WeekDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah averages 3.64 points per drive with .576 success; Kansas is at 3.00 and .473.
    • Utah’s defense allows -.148 EPA/play; Kansas’ offense posts only .090 EPA/play and 27.6-second pace.
    • My fair total is 46.5, a three-point gap below the current 49.5.
    • The total already fell from 50.5 to 49.5, so the weather news is partly priced.
  5. Over 50.5 total
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Confirmed QBs are Isaiah Marshall and Devon Dampier; both lead their teams' latest passing-attempt rows, and Utah's official preview identifies Dampier as its starter.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas' defense suppresses Utah's recent scoring pace and the game finishes at 50 points or fewer.
  6. Utah Utes spread −16
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model margin mean 17.4 points with SD about 17; Utah covers -16 at 52.8% fair.
    • Load-bearing efficiency gap favors Utah: current Utah offense averages +0.35 EPA/play versus Kansas defensive allowance -0.17; adjusted scoring and 71-versus-77 play pace converge on the favorite.
    • Most likely loss: Kansas stays within 15 or wins outright after Utah fails to convert its efficiency edge into points.
Show all 18 picks
  1. Game total under 49.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah: +0.35 offensive EPA/play and 3.64 points/drive; Kansas defense is strong at -0.17 allowed EPA/play.
    • Kansas: +0.09 offensive EPA/play versus Utah's -0.15 defensive EPA/play allowed; both season profiles point to a compressed scoring matchup.
    • NWS forecasts showers/thunderstorm chances, 10, 14 mph winds with gusts to 31 mph; kickoff was moved earlier because of inclement weather.
    • Utah averages 43.25 points and can clear the number alone if its efficient offense creates short fields.
  2. Utah Utes spread −19.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah's offense-vs-Kansas-defense EPA comparison is +0.48, versus Kansas's +0.19 against Utah.
    • Utah averages 3.73 points per drive and 15 days' rest; Kansas averages 2.78 and has eight days.
    • PFF offense grades Utah 88.0 versus Kansas 83.4; Utah is 4-0, Kansas 2-2.
    • Kansas's defense allows -0.13 EPA/play versus Utah's -0.11; a low-possession game can limit separation.
  3. Utah Utes −15.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B); estimated cover probability 56.5% versus 52.4% break-even.
    • Utah is 8-2 ATS across its last 10, including 5-0 in its last five and 4-0 this season.
    • Utah’s current offense averages +0.35 EPA/play with 43.3 points per game through four games.
    • The 8-2 ATS sample spans two seasons and includes materially different opponents; current-season ATS sample is only four games.
  4. 1st-quarter total over 10.5 points
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kansas and Utah recent per-drive production averaged 3.00 and 3.89 points, respectively, supporting an aggressive opening scoring projection.
    • Recent pace and inferred drive rates project roughly 18-20 first-quarter points before variance adjustment.
    • First-quarter totals are extremely volatile: one stalled drive, missed kick, or explosive touchdown dominates the sample.
  5. Utah Utes 1st-half winnerFavorite
    +30%Won

    Taken at 77¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah's last four offense averaged 0.35 EPA/play, 57.9% success, and 3.89 points per drive.
    • Utah's offensive matchup EPA proxy is +0.53/play versus Kansas defense; Kansas's corresponding proxy is +0.24.
    • Utah is 4-0 with a +33.0 average margin in the current four-game sample; home field reinforces the script edge.
    • Only four current-season games per team; opponent quality and first-half splits are not fully observed.
  6. Game total over 52
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah and Kansas average 43.25 and 36.0 points; offensive EPA/play is +0.35 and +0.09.
    • Pinnacle’s main total is 50; ProphetX’s main is 49.5, while the model supports the higher 52 rung.
    • Utah’s 0.58 success rate and Kansas’s 0.18 explosive-play rate preserve scoring upside.
    • Most likely loss: the game finishes at 52 or fewer; exactly 52 is a push.
  7. Kansas Jayhawks spread +10
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah’s 4-0 form meets Kansas’s 2-2 mark, but Kansas’s latest EPA profile and +10 key-number cushion support the underdog side.
    • Most likely loss: Utah wins by 11 or more; exactly 10 is a push, not a win.
  8. Total Points over 50
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kansas 17.5 plus Utah 33.5 team-total anchors sum to 51, one point above this rung.
    • Most likely loss: Utah's defense controls Kansas and the game becomes a one-sided result without enough Jayhawk scoring.
    • Utah's defense has allowed -0.15 EPA/play across four games; it can suppress Kansas below its 17.5 team-total anchor.
  9. Utah Utes first-half spread NO 9.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,514 signed-margin games (2024, 26 regular) give SD 23.07; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 16.32.
    • 2026 margin averages are Utah +33.0 and Kansas +19.0; current-data half-margin is 7.0 points.
    • Pinnacle Utah -16 full-game spread scales to an 8.0-point first-half mean; blended projection is 7.5.
    • Only four 2026 games per team; weak-opponent blowouts may distort points-per-drive and margins.
  10. Game first-half total over 27.5 points
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 31.3 first-half points, 3.8 above 27.5.
    • Kansas/Utah PPD averages 3.00/3.64; drive allocation gives 32.8 pre-weather points before script uplift.
    • Weather is load-bearing: live forecast has 32-mph gusts and 30% showers; the 10% drive haircut is an estimate.
  11. Kansas Jayhawks spread +16 (push at exactly 16)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kansas +16 pushes on a 16-point Utah win; Kansas +16.5 wins that outcome.
    • ProphetX quotes Kansas +16 at -104 versus +16.5 at -111; the seven-point price gap exceeds the measured push mass.
    • Kansas +16 loses at 17 or more; exactly 16 is only a refund, not a win.
  12. Utah Utes to winFavorite
    +16%Won

    Taken at 86¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah leads current-season averages in points (43.25, 36.00), EPA/play (0.35, 0.09), success rate (57.9%, 47.3%), and scoring defense (10.25, 17.00).
    • Kansas wins outright through explosive plays; its season explosive rate is slightly higher (18.1% versus Utah's 16.5%).

Questions

Who won Kansas vs. Utah?

Utah won 41-24 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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