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Syracuse vs. VirginiaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalScott Stadium
Syracuse2–2
25–28Final
Virginia3–2
Score by period
Team1234T
SYR7100825
UVA7071428

Top model pick, graded

Won

Virginia Cavaliers to win 83¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-4 on this game · +18% return

  1. Syracuse Orange spread +143 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Virginia's offense is efficient at +0.1875 EPA/play, but Syracuse's offense also clears +0.15 EPA/play; the efficiency gap does not require a 15-point margin.
    • Both teams clear the FBS coverage gate with 4 Syracuse and 5 Virginia current-season team-game rows.
    • Most likely loss: Virginia's 92.0 PFF overall grade versus Syracuse's 79.2, home field and the Cavaliers' superior offensive line create a multi-score game.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Success rates are nearly identical (.466 Syracuse, .465 Virginia), so the 14-point main number gives Syracuse substantial margin protection rather than reflecting a clear efficiency gap.
    • Likeliest loss path: Nelson struggles in his expected first start and Virginia turns its home-field edge into a 15-plus-point win.
    Long Way Home
    • Syracuse posted +0.208 EPA/play and 42 points in its latest game; its 2026 offense has been positive in three of four games.
    • Virginia's defense allowed +0.334 and +0.240 EPA/play in its two latest games, a vulnerability the market's 14-point gap may overstate.
    • Most likely loss: Virginia's superior defense creates short fields and turns Syracuse's recent offensive spike into a two-score win.
  2. Virginia Cavaliers to winFavorite
    +20%Won

    Taken at 83¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  3. Under 49.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
  4. Over 49.5 total points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 54.0% over versus Pinnacle exact-rung devig 50.2%; gap +3.8p.
    • Current-season averages imply 54.8 points before a conservative Syracuse quarterback adjustment.
    • Virginia and Syracuse average .188/.152 EPA per play and .498/.493 success rates; combined explosive rates are .107/.127.
    • Most likely loss: Syracuse's quarterback transition stalls drives and Virginia's slow pace keeps the game below 50.
  5. Virginia Cavaliers −13.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP grade 71/100: projected Virginia margin -16.5 versus the posted -13.5, a 22% line-relative projection edge.
    • Virginia is +15.8 per game in 2026; its PFF overall grade is 92.0 versus Syracuse's 79.2.
    • Virginia has covered this number in 3 of its last 5 and 6 of its last 10; the market move from -9.5 to -13.5 agrees.
    • Only 5 Virginia games are in the current-season cover sample, and the team lost 38-7 at Florida State last week.
  6. Syracuse Orange spread +15
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels tie 3-3; thin-at-quote plus deeper total gives the required two-of-three configuration.
    • Directional check: backing Syracuse +15, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
    • The reference is venue self-reference; no independent sharp reference was used.
Show all 9 picks
  1. Game total under 49.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Baseline scoring blend is 54.8 points; QB and weather adjustments lower the model mean to roughly 48.
    • Weather.gov: 100% rain, northeast wind 7, 11 mph with gusts to 21 mph, and 1, 2 inches possible.
    • Malachi Nelson is expected to start; Amari Odom is doubtful, Steve Angeli is out, and Nelson has only 2 current-season attempts.
    • Virginia’s current home offense averages 3.21 points per drive and could overcome weather effects.
  2. Game total over 50.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Over 50.5 wins when the final total is exactly 51; it has no push outcome.
    • The adjacent whole-number Over 51 pushes at exactly 51, while Over 50.5 wins; the leg matches the exact contract analyzed.
    • exactly 51 total points occurred in 334 games, 3.221% of the historical sample.
    • The 3.221% exact-total frequency is all CFB 2014, 25, not Syracuse, Virginia-specific.
  3. Syracuse Orange to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 18¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle's same-line reference is Syracuse +434, while ProphetX improves the underdog price to +470.
    • Most likely loss: Virginia wins at home, consistent with the model's central margin and the market's favorite status.

Questions

Who won Syracuse vs. Virginia?

The Virginia won 28–25 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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