Mississippi Valley State Delta vs. Texas SouthernFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalShell Energy Stadium
Mississippi Valley State Delta2–4
38–34Final
Texas Southern1–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MISS | 7 | 7 | 0 | 24 | 38 |
| TEX | 7 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 34 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total over 53.5 −112
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: Blended recent score projection is approximately 60.5, 7.0 points above the 53.5 line (13.1%).
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 6-1 on this game · +127% return
- Game total over 53.5+89%Won
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Blended recent score projection is approximately 60.5, 7.0 points above the 53.5 line (13.1%).
- Texas Southern totals went over 53.5 in all five 2026 games; MVSU went over in 3 of 6.
- Both defenses have allowed explosive recent scoring: MVSU 40.0 and Texas Southern 53.3 points per advanced-game sample.
- MVSU went over only 2 of its last 5 totals, creating mixed recent evidence and moderate variance.
- Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils to win+488%Won
Taken at 17¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Mississippi Valley State’s 2026 PFF defense grade is 89.3, versus 57.8 for Texas Southern.
- Texas Southern has allowed 0.475 defensive EPA per play across three charted 2026 games.
- Mississippi Valley State’s offense is poor: -0.3166 EPA/play and 32.4% success rate across three charted games.
- Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils +14.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Exact contract rule: Mississippi Valley State +14.5 wins at a 14-point loss; this half-point rung cannot push.
- 4.185% exact-14 margin frequency: 434 of 10,371 FBS games, 2014, 2025.
- ProphetX charges only 1.30 cents more for +14.5 (-118; 54.13c) than +14 (-112; 52.83c), below the 4.185% push mass.
- The 4.185% margin rate is historical NCAAF-wide, not team- or matchup-specific.
- Under 53.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at −106 on DraftKings
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- MVSU’s last three charted games averaged 0.3166 EPA/play below expectation on offense.
- Texas Southern scored 10, 40, 10 in its last three games; the recent offensive profile is volatile rather than consistently explosive.
- The total fell from 56.5 to 53.5 at DraftKings and FanDuel before kickoff, supporting the under market family.
- Texas Southern’s defense allowed +0.3649 EPA/play in its four-game charted window, creating explosive-score risk.
- Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils +14+83%Won
Taken at −120 on DraftKings
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- MVSU’s recent defense allowed -0.0096 EPA/play across its three charted games; Texas Southern allowed +0.3649.
- PFF team grades favor MVSU 67.9, 56.2 overall and 89.3, 57.8 defensively.
- MVSU’s own recent offense averaged -0.3166 EPA/play across its last three charted games.
- Game total over 55.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The lower threshold is priced as less likely than the higher threshold on the same ProphetX ladder, a direct rung inconsistency.
- This is a same-side new-line update from the existing over 56.5 position after the broader market moved from 56.5 to 53.5.
Show all 7 picks
- Game total over 56.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- six 2026 team-games averaged 63.8 total points, 7.3 above this ladder.
- Texas Southern's defense has allowed +0.470 EPA per play across three games, a scoring-environment accelerator.
- Recent totals: Mississippi Valley State 52, 56, 55; Texas Southern 61, 83, 76, the TSU tail is underpriced.
- Mississippi Valley State averages only 14.3 points, and its recent totals remain close to this number.
Questions
Who won Mississippi Valley State Delta vs. Texas Southern?
The Mississippi Valley State Delta won 38–34 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.