San Diego vs. ButlerFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBud and Jackie Sellick Bowl
San Diego2-3
10–41Final
Butler4-1
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAN | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| BUTL | 10 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 41 |
Top model pick, graded
WonButler Bulldogs to win 41¢
Why CFB HunterV2 likes it: Model: Butler 49% win probability versus 41% implied at the 2.44x contract multiplier (+8 points).
CFB HunterV2Down 13% this season · 270 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-3 on this game · +25% return
- Butler Bulldogs to win+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsCFB HunterV2, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB HunterV2- Model: Butler 49% win probability versus 41% implied at the 2.44x contract multiplier (+8 points).
- Butler's current-season overall grade is 92.0 versus San Diego's 76.9.
- Butler has only one current-season game with charted advanced data; San Diego has only two.
Long Way Home- Butler leads 10-3 late in Q1; its live offense is +0.74 EPA/play with a 40% explosive-play rate.
- San Diego is at -0.08 EPA/play, 37.5% success and 12.5% explosive rate through 16 offensive plays.
- Most likely loss: San Diego's pregame strength is real, the tiny Butler sample regresses, and the Toreros rally from the early deficit.
- Game total over 57.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days - Game total over 59.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP Composite Grade 75/100; estimated 66.4-point projection is 6.9 points above 59.5.
- Estimated 63% win probability versus 52.4% implied at FanDuel -110.
- San Diego cleared 59.5 in all five recent games; Butler cleared it in three of five.
- Butler's latest defense grade is 90.2, and its defense allowed -0.05 EPA per play in the lone charted game.
- Game total under 57.5+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under 57.5 wins at 57 or fewer and never pushes; adjacent under 57 pushes exactly at 57.
- ProphetX prices under 57.5 at +110 (47.62¢) versus under 57 at -104 (50.98¢), despite the extra win at 57.
- Totals of 58 or more lose the exact under 57.5 contract.
- Butler Bulldogs +3.5+82%Won
Taken at −122 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Butler: +0.13 offensive EPA/play and 53.1% success rate; San Diego allows +0.11 defensive EPA/play.
- San Diego's offense is stronger at +0.16 EPA/play, but Butler's defense allows only -0.09 EPA/play.
- Butler is coming off a bye: 14 days since its last game versus seven for San Diego.
- Only one 2026 Butler game and two San Diego games make the efficiency sample fragile.
- Game total over 58.5−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Eight of the 10 retrieved 2026 totals cleared 58.5, averaging 66.4 points; the mechanism is sustained scoring above the market threshold.
- Butler’s four totals average 63.25 (3 of 4 over); San Diego’s five totals average 71.8 (5 of 5 over).
- San Diego’s latest offense produced +0.33 EPA/play in a 63-14 win; Butler’s latest produced +0.17 EPA/play in a 33-28 win.
- Most likely loss: one offense stalls after the recent scoring-heavy stretch, leaving the game at 58 or fewer points.
Show all 7 picks
- Butler Bulldogs spread +3+108%Won
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle shows Butler +2.5 at +111; ProphetX offers the better +3 number at a comparable price.
- Butler’s 2026 home wins include 52-0 and 47-20; San Diego’s road losses include 17-59 and 17-50.
- San Diego’s 63-14 win over Davidson last week could carry into a road win by 4+ points, the most direct loss path.
Questions
Who won San Diego vs. Butler?
Butler won 41-10 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.