William & Mary vs. North Carolina CentralFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalO'Kelly-Riddick Stadium

William & Mary2–4

17–14Final

North Carolina Central2–4

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
WILL	7	0	7	3	17
UNC	0	7	7	0	14

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 57.5 total 58¢

Why D1 Winner likes it: 2026 charted efficiency: NCCU allowed 0.081 EPA/play versus W&M's 0.344.

D1 WinnerDown 8% this season · 237 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 2-6 on this game · −56% return

North Carolina Central Eagles to win2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsCFB HunterV2, Key Number CFB
Why 2 models like it
CFB HunterV2
- NCCU current-season offense is -0.008 EPA/play versus W&M's -0.273.
- NCCU's defensive EPA allowed is +0.081/play versus W&M's +0.344.
- NCCU and W&M are both 2-4, and the current-season sample remains only two fully charted games.
Key Number CFB
- Projection: NCCU's latest six-game PFF defense grade is 87.8 versus W&M's 63.9; recent EPA/play is -0.176 versus -0.286.
- Most likely loss: William & Mary wins outright; the moneyline has no spread protection.
Game total over 57.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
Under 57.5 total
+72%Won
Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2026 charted efficiency: NCCU allowed 0.081 EPA/play versus W&M's 0.344.
- W&M averaged 0.328 success rate and 10.5 points in two charted 2026 games.
- Durham forecast: 90% rain chance near kickoff, 11, 14 mph wind and gusts to 29 mph.
- W&M allowed 51.5 points per game in the two charted contests, creating short-field and defensive-score risk.
North Carolina Central Eagles −3.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Polymarket US
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PWP composite estimate: 73/100; projected cover probability 58% versus the 45.5¢ executable contract cost.
- North Carolina Central is 2-0 ATS in its two graded 2026 games; William & Mary is 0-2.
- PFF team grade favors NCCU 75.9-61.8, with an 87.8-63.9 defensive-grade advantage.
- ATS sample is only two games per team, far short of the preferred L10 consistency gate.
North Carolina Central Eagles wins by over 3.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 45¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 0.008 vs W&M -0.273 current-season offensive EPA/play.
- NCCU allows +0.081 defensive EPA/play versus W&M +0.344; lower is better.
- Team grades favor NCCU 75.9-61.8, including an 89.3 coverage grade.
- Only two current-season advanced games are charted, so EPA and grade stability are limited.
William & Mary Tribe spread +3.5
+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- +3.5 wins on an exact 3-point NCCU margin; the adjacent +3 contract pushes there.
- This is not a team-strength model; William & Mary can still lose by five or more.

Show all 7 picks

North Carolina Central Eagles spread −3
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- William & Mary is 1-4 with a -24.8 recent scoring margin; North Carolina Central is 2-3 at -7.0, a materially stronger current profile.
- Current EPA rows favor NCCU: -0.008 offensive EPA and +0.081 defensive EPA allowed versus William & Mary's -0.273 and +0.344.
- The exchange price is a concrete market miss at the key three: +101 on ProphetX versus -120 at the sharp reference.
- Most likely loss: NCCU repeats its low-output performances and fails to separate at home; a margin of 1-2 loses while exactly 3 pushes.

Questions

Who won William & Mary vs. North Carolina Central?

The William & Mary won 17–14 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.