Cal Poly vs. Idaho StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalICCU Dome
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 7 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 25 |
| IDAH | 3 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 63.5 −121
Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: 58.9 blended total projection (Idaho State 33.9, Cal Poly 25.0) is 7.2% below 63.5.
Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-0 on this game · +179% return
- Game total under 63.5+83%Won
Taken at −121 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 58.9 blended total projection (Idaho State 33.9, Cal Poly 25.0) is 7.2% below 63.5.
- The last five games for each team produced 6 unders in 10 combined observations at this line (60%).
- Recent scoring splits: Idaho State 37.0 points for and 21.2 against; Cal Poly 28.8 for and 30.8 against.
- Cal Poly allowed 30.8 recent points per game, and both teams have already produced totals of 69 or higher.
- Game under 62.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Last-five combined scoring average is 58.9 points across the two teams.
- Cal Poly's offense averages -0.040 EPA/play in the recent window; Idaho State's PFF defense grades 91.0 overall.
- ICCU Dome removes outdoor weather as a source of over/under variance.
- Idaho State's offense is +0.123 EPA/play across three current-season charted games, creating shootout risk.
- Cal Poly Mustangs spread +14.5+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX charges 56.52¢ (-130) for +14.5 versus 55.36¢ (-124) for +14: only a 1.16¢ premium for eliminating the push outcome.
- This is not a projection claim: the contract still loses if Idaho State wins by 15 or more.
- Cal Poly Mustangs to win+456%Won
Taken at 18¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sportsbook references price Cal Poly around +390 to +405, supporting an actionable underdog price gap.
- Idaho State has the stronger warehouse profile: 4-1 form, +15.8 recent scoring margin, and a 91.0 team grade versus Cal Poly's 84.3.
Questions
Who won Cal Poly vs. Idaho State?
The Cal Poly won 25–24 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.