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Sam Houston vs. LibertyFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalWilliams Stadium (VA)
Sam Houston1-3
3–35Final
Liberty4-1
Score by period
Team1234T
SHSU03003
LIB7771435

Top model pick, graded

Won

Liberty Flames spread over 13.5 51¢

Why Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner likes it: +0.19 offensive EPA/play over Liberty's last 10 versus Sam Houston -0.02.

Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 16% return this season · 85 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-11 on this game · −12% return

  1. Sam Houston Bearkats spread +142 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsHouse Rules, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    House Rules
    • ProphetX +14 is -112 (52.83¢) versus +14.5 at -125 (55.56¢): only a 2.73-point price gap.
    • Sam Houston +14 loses on any Liberty win by 15 or more; a push is not a win.
    Key Number CFB
    • That 3.08-point probability step is smaller than the empirical mass carried by the half-point from +13.5 to +14.
    • Liberty is 4-1 with an 88.7 PFF team grade; a superior home performance can win by 15 or more.
  2. Total points over 52.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsKey Number CFB, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    Key Number CFB
    • 2026 scoring averages combine to 58.2 points: Liberty 30.4, Sam Houston 27.8.
    • Both offenses are positive EPA/play (+0.16 Liberty, +0.06 Sam Houston); recent paces are 25.32 and 24.03 seconds.
    • Liberty's 76.5 PFF defense can force punts, making the over dependent on efficient Liberty scoring.
    Tempo Board
    • ProphetX’s same-event team totals are Liberty 33.5 and Sam Houston 20.5; their 54-point sum sits 1.5 above the game total.
    • 2026 sample: Sam Houston averages 28.92 seconds/play, 19.4% PROE, 12.2% explosive plays and 47.1% success across 4 games.
    • Most likely loss: Liberty’s -0.08 defensive EPA/play allowed suppresses Sam Houston, which scored only 17.3 points per game across its 3 FBS opponents.
  3. Liberty Flames spread over 13.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +0.19 offensive EPA/play over Liberty's last 10 versus Sam Houston -0.02.
    • Liberty's defense allowed +0.04 EPA/play; Sam Houston allowed +0.10.
    • Liberty owns a 4-1, +12.6 recent scoring-margin profile and an 88.7 PFF team grade.
    • No CFB injury designations or player-availability feed is on file; lineup status is a proxy, capping conviction.
  4. Under 52.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Load-bearing possession factor: 139.6 combined current-season plays imply roughly 20, 21 drives; opponent-adjusted PPD and garbage-time shrink produce a 51.3-point center.
    • Most likely loss: explosive gains from Liberty's 13.8% or Sam Houston's 12.2% current explosive-play rates turn 20, 21 drives into a shootout.
  5. Liberty Flames spread −17.5
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Novig

    Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Fox Sports' current listing names Landyn Locke and Deshawn Purdie as the starting quarterbacks.
    • Key-number mass is a structural approximation, not a full margin-distribution model.
  6. Liberty Flames first-half spread NO over 9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle’s Liberty -13.5 full-game spread scales to a 6.75-point first-half mean.
    • Own 2024-26 CFB sample: 2,560 margins, SD 15.73; sqrt-half-possession scaling gives first-half SD 11.12.
    • Only five Liberty and four Sam Houston 2026 games inform the matchup projection.
Show all 18 picks
  1. Sam Houston Bearkats +13.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Net EPA/play: Liberty +0.25 versus Sam Houston +0.18; the 0.07 gap maps closer to a 10.5-point fair line than 13.5.
    • Success/explosive rates favor Liberty (.497/.138 vs .471/.122), but the efficiency separation is not dominant.
    • Rest favors Sam Houston: last game Sept. 26 versus Liberty Oct. 2, roughly 12 days to 6.
    • Liberty’s defense has allowed -0.08 EPA/play; turnovers or short fields could turn the modest matchup gap into a rout.
  2. Liberty Flames spread −13.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liberty averages +0.16 EPA/play and 49.7% success over 5 games; Sam Houston averages +0.14 and 47.1% over 4.
    • Liberty’s defense allows -0.08 EPA/play versus Sam Houston’s -0.04; Liberty also leads the explosive-rate comparison, 13.8% to 12.2%.
    • Personnel gate cleared: box data leads with Deshawn Purdie and Landyn Locke; official game-day pages identify the same quarterbacks, with no open battle or out report found.
    • Most likely loss: Sam Houston’s positive +0.14 offensive EPA/play produces enough explosive drives to keep Liberty within 13 points.
  3. Liberty Flames win 1st HalfFavorite
    +37%Won

    Taken at 73¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent four-game average: Liberty 2.87 points per drive versus Sam Houston’s 2.03.
    • Liberty’s recent-four success rate is .513 and EPA/play +.217, versus Sam Houston’s .471 and +.139.
    • Liberty’s defensive EPA allowed is -0.13 recently, materially better than Sam Houston’s -0.04.
    • Pinnacle is a reference price, not an independent first-half model; information may overlap with Kalshi.
  4. Sam Houston Bearkats spread +13.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season margin blend projects Liberty ahead by roughly 8, 9, below the 13.5-point contract line.
    • Efficiency is close: Liberty +0.16 offensive EPA/play and -0.08 defensive EPA/play; Sam Houston +0.14 and -0.04.
    • Sam Houston has only four current-season games; its 2025 profile was 2-10 with a -20.1 scoring margin.
  5. Game total under 56
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quotes under 56 at 61.54¢ (-160) versus under 56.5 at 61.83¢ (-162): only a 0.29-point gap for the push rung.
    • Most outcomes are ordinary wins or losses; the push protection is only the exact-56 bucket, and the game can land well above 56.
  6. Total points under 52
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Two of three measures agree: under is thin at quote and deep in total depth; raw thin-side stake is well above a few hundred dollars.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: under 3 levels versus over 3, so this clears only the two-measure minimum.
  7. Total Points over 52
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 samples show Liberty at 49.7% success / 13.9% explosive and Sam Houston at 47.1% / 12.2%; neither offense projects a low-event game.
    • Sam Houston’s four-game PROE average is +19.4%; the teams average 27.75 and 30.4 points, respectively, before matchup adjustment.
    • Personnel gate cleared through latest passing boxes and live official team material: Landyn Locke for Sam Houston and Deshawn Purdie for Liberty; no same-day X signal reported a change.
    • Most likely loss: Liberty’s -0.08 defensive EPA/play allowed suppresses Sam Houston and the game finishes 52 or fewer.
  8. Game total under 52
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only 2026 scoring: Liberty averages 32.0 for and 16.5 against across four FBS games; Sam Houston averages 17.3 for and 32.0 against across three.
    • The observed FBS scoring blend is 49.3 points, 2.7 below the ProphetX total; Liberty's defensive EPA allowed is -0.07 versus Sam Houston's 0.13.
    • Personnel lookup names Landyn Locke and Deshawn Purdie as the current expected quarterbacks; no injury note was listed.
    • Four and three FBS games are small samples with no opponent-strength adjustment.
  9. Game total over 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Personnel gate cleared: latest pass-attempt leaders are Deshawn Purdie and Landyn Locke; Fox's two-hour listing names both starters, and Liberty's official preview names Locke.
    • Most likely loss: Liberty's -0.08 defensive EPA/play allowed suppresses Sam Houston, leaving the game dependent on one-sided scoring.
  10. Game first-half total over 27.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SHSU averages 71.0 plays, 28.92 sec/play, and 8.0 first-half drives; Liberty averages 68.6, 30.92, and 5.4.
    • Weighted PROE 11.7% and explosive rate 12.8% produce a specific +0.75-point script uplift under the model formula.
    • Derived same-rung reference, not an independent first-half sharp line; this is LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
  11. Game total under 52.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Liberty’s defense allows 17.8 points per game and -0.08 EPA/play; Sam Houston’s offense averages only a 0.47 success rate.
    • Most likely loss: Liberty creates explosive home-offense possessions and Sam Houston contributes enough for the game to clear 52.5.
  12. Sam Houston Bearkats +13
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 current results: Liberty averages +12.6 margin across five games; Sam Houston is +3.8 across four, a gap below the posted spread after schedule adjustment.
    • 2025 efficiency baseline: Liberty +0.06 offensive EPA/play and 26.5 points allowed/game; Sam Houston's current offense has been more competitive than its 2025 17.8 points/game baseline.
    • Most likely loss: Liberty's home advantage and superior recent form turn the matchup into a double-digit win despite the projection gap.

Questions

Who won Sam Houston vs. Liberty?

Liberty won 35-3 on Thursday, Oct 8, 2026.

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