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Washington State vs. Utah StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMaverik Stadium
Washington State1–4
16–17Final
Utah State1–4
Score by period
Team1234T
WSU6100016
USU037717

Top model pick, graded

Won

Washington State Cougars under 44.5 total −114

Why Picks With Pink Grading System likes it: PWP Composite Grade 74/100; estimated total 41.5 is 6.7% below the 44.5 line.

Picks With Pink Grading SystemDown 5% this season · 474 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-6 on this game · +23% return

  1. Utah State Aggies to win2 models agree
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Directional check: backing Utah State, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • This is venue self-reference only; no independent sharp reference is used, so resting orders may be stale or strategic.
    Long Way Home
    • Only 3-0 at Q1 4:50; the early score is a small sample, not enough to justify flipping the pregame favorite.
    • Live CFB data favors Utah State: success rate 37.5% to 33.3%, offense EPA/play -0.292 to -0.330, and defense EPA allowed -0.330 to -0.292.
    • Most likely loss: Washington State's opening lead reflects a real matchup edge and ProphetX's 43.1¢ contract price is more informed than the sharp snapshot.
  2. Javon Robinson over 33.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • He cleared 33.5 receiving yards in 6 of his last 10 appearances.
    • He is 2-for-3 over the line this season, with 31, 100 and 67 receiving yards.
    • Washington State has allowed +0.1154 defensive EPA per play over five games.
    • The 6-of-10 hit rate only barely clears the 60% form threshold.
  3. Kirby Vorhees over 34.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8 of his last 10 appearances cleared 34.5 rushing yards.
    • 2026 current-season average is 47.0 yards on 42 carries.
    • Utah State has allowed +0.0582 defensive EPA per play across five games.
    • FanDuel's line rose from 32.5 to 34.5 since 11:55 AM, moving against the over.
  4. Washington State Cougars under 44.5 total
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 74/100; estimated total 41.5 is 6.7% below the 44.5 line.
    • Both teams went under in 8 of their last 10 DK-total results.
    • Utah State averages 14.0 points scored; Washington State averages 19.0, with both defenses allowing 25.0.
    • The total moved from 43.5 to 44.5, signaling market pressure against the under.
  5. under 44
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so thin-at-quote plus deeper total is the two-measure signal; backing under 44, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • The book-level count is neutral at 3-3 rather than corroborating the under.
  6. Washington State Cougars under 43.5 total points
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season combined scoring is 33.0 points per game across five games each.
    • Washington State averages -0.186 offensive EPA/play; Utah State averages -0.088, limiting expected scoring.
    • Sunny Logan forecast with no reported precipitation threat supports the baseline rather than a weather-driven over.
    • Utah State's defense allows positive 0.058 EPA/play; Washington State could exploit that matchup.
Show all 15 picks
  1. Total Points under 44
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent scoring averages combine to 33.0 points (Washington State 19.0, Utah State 14.0); their recent game-total averages are 41.5 and 39.0.
    • Both offenses are negative EPA/play: Washington State -0.1860 and Utah State -0.0878; both teams average roughly 26 seconds per play.
    • QB gate passed: latest pass-attempt leaders are Caden Pinnick and Grady Brosterhous, with current previews confirming both quarterbacks.
    • Most likely loss: turnovers or explosive plays push the game to 45-plus; both defenses allow positive EPA/play.
  2. Utah State Aggies spread −7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Supporting form: Utah's 2026 regular-season offense EPA/play is -0.0878 versus Washington State's -0.1872; defensive EPA allowed is 0.0595 versus 0.1030.
    • QB gate passed: Caden Pinnick and Grady Brosterhous led their teams' latest pass-attempt rows; the official WSU preview confirms Pinnick as the named starter.
    • Utah -7 loses on any Utah margin from 1 through 7; seven-point frequency is league-wide, not matchup-specific.
  3. Utah State Aggies spread −3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah State’s five-game offense is -0.088 EPA/play versus Washington State’s -0.187; defensive EPA allowed is +0.0595 versus +0.1030.
    • Personnel gate cleared: Washington State’s official preview names Caden Pinnick; the latest Utah State preview says Grady Brosterhous has started the past four.
    • The model margin edge is only 1.513 points over the -3.5 line; variance dominates a modest projection gap.
  4. Utah State Aggies −11.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +200 on FanDuel

    CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah State’s L5 defense allowed +0.0582 EPA/play; Washington State’s L5 offense was -0.1860 EPA/play.
    • Estimated cover probability 31%; fair odds +223 versus +200 market price, implying 33.3%.
    • Both teams are 1-4; Utah State is averaging only 14.0 points across its last five games.
  5. Washington State Cougars −3.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 29¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so thin-at-quote plus deeper total is the two-measure signal; backing Washington State -3.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Book-level count does not corroborate: both sides show 3 levels.
  6. Washington State Cougars +3.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington State's 2026 team grade is 72.3 versus Utah State's 68.7, including a 78.5 defensive grade.
    • Washington State's current-season success rate is 41.5% versus Utah State's 38.8%.
    • Utah State has only a modest home-side advantage in a matchup with both teams 1-4.
    • Washington State's current-season offensive EPA/play is worse than Utah State's, -0.186 versus -0.088.
  7. under 43.5 total points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • under 43.5 wins at 0, 43 and loses at 44 or higher; it cannot push.
    • adjacent ProphetX under 44 is -105 and pushes at exactly 44; under 43.5 is +102 (49.5¢).
    • No projection edge: the under-43.5 win chance is inferred from the adjacent venue contract, not a scoring model.
  8. Game total under 44
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 scoring averages are Washington State 19.0 points and Utah State 14.0; both defenses have allowed 25.0 points per game.
    • Washington State posted negative offensive EPA in 4 of 5 games; Utah State did so in 4 of 5, with both teams below 0.43 success rate in those samples.
    • Pinnacle's live reference is under 43.5 at +101, supporting the low-total direction; ProphetX supplies the extra half-point at -103.
    • Most likely loss: Utah State's offense rebounds against Washington State's defense and an early explosive play pushes the game into a 27-21 range.
  9. Total points under 44.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game 2026 averages: Washington State 26.13 seconds/play, 0.1018 PROE, .1025 explosive rate, .415 success; Utah State 25.93, 0.1334, .1347, .3844.
    • The combined current-season scoring average is 33.0 points (Washington State 19.0, Utah State 14.0), below the 44.5 threshold.
    • The ladder is internally aligned: ProphetX's main 44 total equals Washington State 20.5 plus Utah State 23.5 team totals; no artificial ladder gap is being claimed.
    • Most likely loss: Utah State's .1347 explosive rate attacks Washington State's +0.0996 defensive EPA allowed per play for quick scores and short fields.

Questions

Who won Washington State vs. Utah State?

The Utah State won 17–16 on Friday, Oct 9, 2026.

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