Robert Morris vs. Morgan StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHughes Stadium (MD)
Robert Morris3–2
27–28Final
Morgan State4–1
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROBE | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 27 |
| MORG | 0 | 3 | 18 | 7 | 28 |
Top model pick, graded
WonRobert Morris Colonials over 51.5 total points −114
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Season scoring averages combine for 60.9 points per game; both teams scored 33+ in their latest outings.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 7-3 on this game · +39% return
- Game total over 53.5+121%Won
Taken at +121 on DraftKings
3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, CFB HunterV2 +1Why 3 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- PWP Composite Grade 72/100 (B); qualifying edge clears the 70-point fire threshold.
- Estimated total 58.5 is 9.3% above the 53.5 posted line, exceeding the 5% projection-edge gate.
- DraftKings moved from 54.5 to 53.5, opposing the over and signaling some market resistance.
CFB HunterV2- Model: over 53.5 lands 56% vs the Kalshi contract's 45¢ graded price implied at 45%; +11-point edge.
- The raw current-season scoring rates combine for 57.2 points per game: RMU 25.6 and Morgan 31.6.
- RMU's 89.9 defensive grade and Morgan's poor recent offensive EPA (-0.2558) can suppress scoring.
Long Way Home- Recent combined results cleared 53.5 in all five observed team games: Robert Morris totals 64, 59, 55; Morgan State 73, 77.
- Robert Morris allows 35.7 points per game and Morgan State allows 52.5 across the current-season warehouse sample.
- Morgan State scored only 7 against Arizona State; that offensive collapse alone can sink the over.
- Robert Morris Colonials to win−100%Lost
Taken at +290 on FanDuel
2 modelsBrewing CFB Moneylines, CFB HunterV2Why 2 models like it
Brewing CFB Moneylines- Robert Morris owns the stronger 2026 offense EPA (+0.031 vs Morgan -0.011) and PFF defense (89.9 vs 72.5).
- Official preview identifies Cameron Edge and Carson Haggard as the expected starting quarterbacks.
- Morgan's current success rate (.462) and points per drive (2.02) exceed Robert Morris (.411 and 1.82).
CFB HunterV2- Model: Robert Morris wins 36% vs the Kalshi contract's 25¢ graded price implied at 25%; +11-point edge.
- Robert Morris grades better overall (85.5 vs 80.8) and on defense (89.9 vs 72.5).
- Morgan State is 4-1 with a +4.0 recent margin and owns home field.
- Robert Morris Colonials under 53.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days - Robert Morris Colonials over 51.5 total points+88%Won
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season scoring averages combine for 60.9 points per game; both teams scored 33+ in their latest outings.
- Morgan’s latest efficiency profile was strong: +0.302 offensive EPA/play, 52.4% success, 15.9% explosive rate.
- Confirmed starters Cameron Edge and Carson Haggard combined for 740 passing yards and seven touchdowns last week.
- The efficiency sample is sparse and opponent quality varies substantially, including each team’s FBS matchup.
- Robert Morris Colonials spread +10.5+56%Won
Taken at 64¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The sharp main spread is Morgan State -10, leaving ProphetX's +10.5 a half-point key-number entry rather than a move beyond the market's central number.
- Robert Morris has the stronger latest PFF card: 85.5 overall and 89.9 defense versus Morgan's 80.8 and 72.5; current EPA also favors RMU on offense and defense.
- The RMU quarterback gate is met: Carson Haggard led the latest box with 28 attempts, and the official Oct. 9 preview identifies him for this matchup.
- Most likely loss: Morgan State's homecoming offense repeats its 38-point Villanova performance and wins by 11 or more.
- Robert Morris Colonials +10+88%Won
Taken at −113 on DraftKings
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 3 charted 2026 games: Robert Morris averaged +0.029 offensive EPA/play versus Morgan State -0.011.
- Robert Morris defensive EPA allowed averaged 0.289/play versus Morgan State 0.424; lower is better.
- PFF team card favors Robert Morris overall 85.5, 80.8 and defense 89.9, 72.5.
- Morgan State QB Cameron Edge has 67.3% completions and 9.1 yards/attempt in two charted games versus Haggard's 59.8% and 7.3.
Show all 7 picks
- Robert Morris Colonials spread +10+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Robert Morris's two latest games finished 33-31 and 28-31, a combined one-point margin; Morgan's latest win was only 38-35 at Villanova.
- Reference label: SHARP REFERENCE; edge class: PROJECTION.
- Most likely loss: Morgan State's 4-1 profile translates into a comfortable home win by 11 or more.
Questions
Who won Robert Morris vs. Morgan State?
The Morgan State won 28–27 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.