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Wyoming vs. San José StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCEFCU Stadium
Wyoming2-3
16–13Final
San José State3-2
Score by period
Team12345T
WYO3307316
SJSU0760013

Top model pick, graded

Won

Wyoming Cowboys game total under 43.5 52¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 16-13 on this game · +7% return

  1. Game total under 42.52 models agree
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    2 modelsNCAAF Trend & Market Flow Quant, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    NCAAF Trend & Market Flow Quant
    • 19 unders in 28 DK-graded Wyoming games over 2024-26 (67.9%), clearing the 65% trend gate.
    • Combined recent offensive output is 36.8 points per game across the teams' last five games, 5.7 below 42.5.
    • San José State's defense allowed +0.12 EPA/play recently, creating a path to explosive scoring.
    Long Way Home
    • five-game 2026 scoring averages are Wyoming 14.2 and San José State 22.6, summing to 36.8 points before matchup adjustment.
    • Blending each offense with the opponent's five-game points allowed yields an estimated total near 41.9, below 42.5.
    • Most likely loss: both offenses beat their recent baseline, with San José State's home attack pushing the game into the mid-40s.
  2. San José State Spartans spread −42 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • San José State’s defense allowed +0.07 EPA/play versus Wyoming’s +0.09; points per drive also favors SJSU 1.86 to 1.46.
    • Personnel gate cleared: Luke Weaver led SJSU with 28 latest-game pass attempts and Tyler Hughes led Wyoming with 14; the live Yahoo preview names both quarterbacks, with no same-day X-signal issue.
    • The current sample is only five games per team; Wyoming’s latest 28-0 loss and SJSU’s 3-2 record may be opponent-sensitive.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • CFB predictor projects San José State +9.12; ProphetX is only -4.
    • FBS form, San José State allows 0.08 EPA/play versus Wyoming's 0.17; the Spartans average 20.8 points versus Wyoming's 16.7.
    • Small sample: three Wyoming FBS games and four San José State FBS games; SJSU's offense trails Wyoming in EPA/play, 0.05 to 0.13, and success rate, .458 to .500.
  3. Wyoming Cowboys game total under 43.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  4. Wyoming Cowboys spread +4
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 54.0% on Wyoming +4; Pinnacle exact-rung reference is 50.0%, a 4.0-point gap.
    • Power rating projects San José State by 2.7: scoring blend, Wyoming allowing 22.0 points/game versus SJSU allowing 25.0, and Wyoming's 0.13 explosive rate.
    • Most likely loss: SJSU's offense wins the efficiency matchup; its 0.06 offensive EPA/play and .4747 success rate exceed Wyoming's .0267 and .4508.
  5. Under 42.5 total
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Power rating: 53.0% under; five-game scoring blend projects 41.9 points versus the 42.5 rung.
    • Wyoming averages 14.2 points, -7.8 margin, 0.02 offensive EPA/play and .448 success rate in 2026.
    • Most likely loss: San José State's offense exploits Wyoming's defense, which allowed 0.09 EPA/play across five games.
  6. Under 42 total
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Possession load-bearing factor: current averages are 73.4 San José State plays and 60.0 Wyoming plays; adjusted scoring efficiency supports roughly 21 combined drives and a 40.8-point mean.
    • Same-day starters page names Tyler Hughes and Luke Weaver, matching each team's latest pass-attempt leader; that keeps the quarterback gate open.
    • Most likely loss: San José State converts one or two explosive plays into short-field touchdowns, pushing an ordinary possession count above 42.
Show all 27 picks
  1. Jerry McClure over 2.5 receptions
    +61%Won

    Taken at −164 on FanDuel

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Receptions were 4, 3, and 2 while yards per attributed target varied 6.8, 1.6, and 1.0; stable opportunity separated from volatile output.
    • PFF charting gives McClure a 96.5% route rate, 31 targets, and 19 receptions across 5 current-season games.
    • San José State attempted 28, 38, and 34 passes in the latest three games; the -4.5 spread avoids the brief's blowout cutoff.
    • Cooper Hoch is officially questionable; his availability could materially redirect San José State targets.
  2. Wyoming Cowboys wins 1st Half
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • first-half margin model makes Wyoming 65%, a 9-point cushion over the 56¢ graded price; raised 7-point bar used.
    • Live state is 3-0 Wyoming with 13:33 left in Q2; Wyoming just drove 63 yards over 18 plays to a turnover on downs.
    • San José State missed a 44-yard field goal; full-game direction also favors Wyoming, preserving directional coherence.
    • San José State has 13:33 to score; one touchdown flips the first-half result.
  3. Wyoming vs. San Jose State over 41.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  4. Luke Weaver over 1.5 passing touchdowns
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2+ passing touchdowns in 4 of 5 2026 starts (80%).
    • Model probability 61% versus FanDuel's 51.9% implied at -108: 9.1-point margin.
    • San José State averages 1.66 points per drive recently; Wyoming's defense allows +0.09 EPA per play.
    • Wyoming allows only 141.6 opponent passing yards per game, a strong 253rd-of-269 allowed-yard rank.
  5. Game total under 42.5 points
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wyoming averages 14.2 points and 0.03 offensive EPA/play; San José State allows 0.07 defensive EPA/play.
    • Wyoming produced 162 yards and was shut out last week; Tyler Hughes remains the named starter, while SJSU's current depth chart lists Luke Weaver at QB1.
    • Both teams played Oct. 3, creating an equal six-day rest window with no fatigue edge either way.
    • Biggest risk: SJSU's offense averages 0.06 EPA/play and 1.86 points per drive against a Wyoming defense allowing 0.09 EPA/play.
  6. San José State Spartans to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −185 on DraftKings

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SJSU leads current-season opponent-adjusted efficiency: +0.06 EPA/play offense versus Wyoming's +0.03.
    • SJSU's success rate is 47.5% versus Wyoming's 45.5%; defensive EPA allowed is also better, 0.07 versus 0.09.
    • QB/injury family converges: Luke Weaver has a five-game passing sample, while Wyoming lists three CBs and three OL/OT players out on the 3:30pm official report.
    • The home moneyline moved from -225 opening to -185; no verified public-bet split explains the move, weakening the market-family signal.
  7. San Jose State Spartans −10.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +201 on DraftKings

    CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • San Jose State is 3-2; its L5 offense EPA/play is +0.06 versus Wyoming’s +0.03.
    • Estimated cover probability 40%; fair odds +150 versus +201 market price, implying 33.2%.
    • San Jose State has no resolved 2026 PFF team-grade card, weakening the matchup estimate.
  8. San José State Spartans wins 1st Half
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent three-game SJSU offense averaged 1.74 points per drive, 47.8% success, and 25.1 seconds per play.
    • Wyoming's recent three-game defense allowed +0.13 EPA per play; SJSU's opening-script pace should create more early possessions.
    • Kalshi three-way substitute reference is liquid and tight: SJSU 56%, Wyoming 36%, tie 8%; 2,592 contracts traded.
    • Only three recent SJSU games and three Wyoming games feed the core comparison; opponent quality is uneven.
  9. Wyoming Cowboys under 42.5 total points
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 40-point model projection is 2.5 below the 42.5 threshold.
    • Wyoming averages 14.2 points and 0.03 offensive EPA/play through five games.
    • Wyoming's last five include 0 points at North Dakota State and only 14.2 points per game overall.
    • San José State averages 22.6 points and Luke Weaver has 1,278 passing yards and 11 touchdowns.
  10. Total Points under 43
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent scoring averages 36.2 total points in Wyoming games and 47.6 in San José State games; the combined scoring average is 36.8 points per game.
    • Efficiency is modest: Wyoming and San José State average +0.03 and +0.06 offensive EPA/play; the Spartans run at 24.71 seconds per play.
    • QB gate: latest box leaders are Tyler Hughes and Luke Weaver; an 11:03 AM PDT Mercury News update identifies both as the current game quarterbacks.
    • Most likely loss: San José State creates explosive possessions or short fields and the game reaches 44-plus; exactly 43 is a push, not a win.
  11. Wyoming Cowboys spread +3.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX Wyoming +3 is +125 (44.44¢), while +3.5 is 48.78¢: only a 4.34-point probability increase for crossing exact 3.
    • Recent defensive EPA allowed favors Wyoming, +0.04 versus San José State +0.12; latest box leaders and a same-day preview name Tyler Hughes and Luke Weaver as the QBs.
    • Most likely loss: San José State’s home advantage and stronger offense produce a win by 4 or more.
  12. Game total under 42
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only 2026 scoring averages are 16.7 Wyoming and 20.8 San José State points, a 37.4-point combined baseline.
    • Wyoming’s FBS offense averages 0.13 EPA/play but San José State’s defense allows only 0.08; Wyoming averages 16.7 FBS points.
    • San José State’s FBS offense averages 0.05 EPA/play against Wyoming’s 0.17 defensive EPA allowed, limiting confidence in a runaway home attack.
    • Both current previews identify Tyler Hughes and Luke Weaver, but neither gives a formal game-day starter designation; late QB news could break the projection.
  13. San José State Spartans over 6.5 first-half points margin
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 season-to-date signed-margin SD is 24.76; square-root scaling gives 17.51 first-half SD.
    • Pinnacle’s full-game San José State -4.0 supports the positive direction; it is not an independent first-half price.
    • college margin masses are 3 points (50 games) and 7 (48); 6.5 sits immediately below the 7-point mass.
    • No independent first-half sharp price; the same-rung reference is model-derived, so this is capped LEAN.
  14. San José State Spartans over 3.5 first-half points margin
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Raw Kalshi yes_ask 0.46 is a fraction, converted to 46¢; 1¢ spread and 146.62 contracts traded.
    • 46.8% at the exact 3.5 rung from mean +2.6 and first-half SD 11.12.
    • 2026 metrics favor SJSU: 1.86 versus 1.46 points per drive and 0.06 versus 0.02 offensive EPA/play.
    • Full-game anchor blends a five-game season margin gap with Pinnacle; no independent first-half sharp price exists.
  15. Jerry McClure under 31.5 receiving yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 31.5 yards hit in 3 of five 2026 games (60%).
    • Wyoming allows 141.6 opponent passing yards per game, a strong 253rd-of-269 allowed-yard rank for this under.
    • Model probability 61% versus FanDuel's 53.3% implied at -114: 7.7-point margin.
    • Five-game sample is thin, and player boxes do not provide target counts.
  16. under 44
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The possession read is modest: Wyoming averages 20.01 seconds/play with 1.4% PROE, while San José State is 24.71 seconds/play with 11.8% PROE; neither offense pairs elite efficiency with sustained explosiveness.
    • sportsbook totals center at 42.5, 43.5; the ProphetX 44 rung provides extra total cushion, while sportsbook prices are context only.
    • Personnel gate cleared from latest passing boxes and current web coverage: Tyler Hughes and Luke Weaver are the named quarterbacks, with no reported OUT, open battle, or game-time decision.
    • Most likely loss: both defenses allowing positive EPA/play, San José State 0.07 and Wyoming 0.09, turns chunk plays into a 45-plus total.
  17. Game total under 43.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent 10-game blended under rate is 60%: Wyoming 8/10, San José State 4/10.
    • Recent scoring average is 41.25 points, 2.25 below FanDuel’s 43.5 line (5.2% projection gap).
    • Season scoring averages combine for 36.8 points: Wyoming 14.2, San José State 22.6.
    • San José State went over in 3 of its last 5 and its 10-game under rate is only 40%.
  18. Game first-half total under 21.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Clean pace window: Wyoming 31.07 sec/play; SJSU 24.71; blend 27.89.
    • Five-game drives: Wyoming 10.6, SJSU 12.6; first-half projection 9.69 drives from 53.8 plays / 5.55 plays-drive.
    • Two Wyoming pace rows report 2.98 and 3.87 seconds/play; excluded as data errors, reducing confidence.
  19. San José State Spartans spread −7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • San José State -7.5 loses on exactly a seven-point home win; adjacent -7 pushes.
    • ProphetX quotes -7 at 41.32¢ and -7.5 at 37.59¢; the observed gap is 3.73 points.
    • That push mass implies roughly a 2.51-point quote gap; the extra 1.22 points favors -7.5.
    • The 2014-present CFB margin distribution is aggregate, not team-specific.
  20. Total points over 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Position update: the open over 42.5 moved to 43.5; this same-side new-line add is justified by the fresh venue move and still-live projection.
    • Both defenses allowed positive EPA/play: San José State .0712 and Wyoming .0937, leaving an explosive-scoring path above 43.5.
    • Personnel gate cleared: latest pass-attempt leaders Tyler Hughes and Luke Weaver were cross-checked by same-day game reporting; no same-day X injury row appeared.
    • Most likely loss: Wyoming repeats its 0-point, .302-success-rate outing against North Dakota State and leaves San José State carrying the total.
  21. Total points over 42.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both defenses allowed positive EPA/play in the five-game samples: San José State .071 and Wyoming .094, supporting scoring efficiency.
    • Personnel and coverage gates cleared: Tyler Hughes and Luke Weaver led their teams' latest pass attempts, current Oct. 9 reporting names both, and each team has five 2026 rows.
    • Most likely loss: Wyoming's offense repeats its 0-point, .302-success-rate performance against North Dakota State.

Questions

Who won Wyoming vs. San José State?

Wyoming won 16-13 on Friday, Oct 9, 2026.

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