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Florida State vs. LouisvilleFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalL&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Florida State3–2
20–44Final
Louisville2–3
Score by period
Team1234T
FSU1400620
LOU014141644

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 59.5 total 51¢

Why Saturday Board likes it: Estimated 10-11 possessions per side from roughly 65-68 plays and corrected pace near 27 seconds per play; both teams' explosive rates are about 18%.

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-19 on this game · +1063% return

  1. Over 59.5 total3 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsSaturday Board, Drift +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board
    • Estimated 10-11 possessions per side from roughly 65-68 plays and corrected pace near 27 seconds per play; both teams' explosive rates are about 18%.
    • Most likely loss: one offense stalls through early downs or turnovers, leaving the game below 60 points.
    Drift
    • Power total 61.3: 33.2/38.6 team scoring and 21.6/29.2 opponent points allowed.
    • Both offenses show positive EPA: FSU .305, Louisville .295; success rates .520/.540 across five games.
    • Five-game sample makes early-season efficiency estimates unstable.
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • 132.4 combined current-season plays project roughly 21, 22 possessions; adjusted blended scoring centers around 62, 64 points.
    • Current explosive-play rates are 17.9% for Florida State and 18.3% for Louisville, supporting the Over tail.
    • Most likely loss: red-zone stalls or an early game-state slowdown leave 21, 22 drives below 60 points.
  2. Florida State Seminoles to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsDrift, ProphetX Pairs +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Drift
    • 2026 sample: FSU averages +11.6 points per game in margin versus Louisville's +9.4.
    • Current-season net EPA edge is narrow for FSU: .1756 versus Louisville .1727 across five games.
    • Louisville has home field and the market has ticked modestly toward the Cardinals.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • The 9.13-point model-versus-venue gap is the named PROJECTION edge; SHARP REFERENCE: Pinnacle +154 is context only.
    • ACC preview identifies Ashton Daniels and Lincoln Kienholz as the starters; the latest report lists Kienholz probable.
    • Kienholz is probable rather than fully cleared, and cfb_injury_x_signal returned no game-specific row; a late scratch or limitation changes the read.
    Long Way Home
    • Florida State's five-game average is +0.305 offensive EPA/play versus Louisville's +0.295, with a better scoring margin: +11.6 versus +9.4.
    • Florida State has won its last two by 34-7 and 38-7; Louisville has lost its last two 30-27 and 31-28.
    • Most likely loss: Louisville's higher five-game success rate (.540 versus Florida State's .522) and home field control the game.
  3. Florida State Seminoles spread +3.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Model fair: Florida State +3.5 wins 54.0%; projected Louisville margin is only 1.8 points with SD about 17.
    • Current EPA: Florida State offense averages 0.305/play versus Louisville 0.295; the efficiency gap does not justify -3.5.
    • Most likely loss: Louisville turns its home-field edge into a margin of four or more.
    Key Number CFB
    • The ProphetX +3.5 rung is 48.54¢ versus 44.25¢ for +3: only 4.29 probability points are charged for crossing key 3.
    • Five-game form has FSU at 0.305 offensive EPA/play versus Louisville at 0.295; the efficiency gap supports a tighter margin than the Louisville favorite implies.
    • A Louisville win by 4 or more loses; its home field and 83.0 PFF defense grade materially exceed FSU's 67.3.
  4. Florida State Seminoles over 27.5 team points2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsCFB HunterV2, Saturday Scoring Environment
    Why 2 models like it
    CFB HunterV2
    • 33.2 current-season points per game; Florida State cleared 27.5 in 4 of 5.
    • Florida State posts +0.3045 offensive EPA/play and a 52.2% success rate through five games.
    • Florida State is without WR Devin Carter and RB Samuel Singleton Jr., reducing skill-position depth.
    Saturday Scoring Environment
    • +0.103 opponent-adjusted EPA/play: FSU offense .2741 minus Louisville FBS defensive allowance .1712 across four qualifying games each.
    • Two clocks are not slow: FSU 28.14 and Louisville 21.19 seconds/play; forecast southeast wind is only about 6 mph.
    • Louisville's FBS defensive EPA allowance is .1712, stronger resistance than its raw 33.25 points allowed per game suggests.
  5. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    +32900%Won

    Taken at +32900

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Louisville at 62.41¢: 90.1 team grade versus Florida State's 81.9, with an 82.9, 66.8 defensive-grade edge.
    • Golden State at 37.31¢: Valkyries have a +8.1 season net rating versus Las Vegas's +5.2 and won the last two meetings.
    • Louisville's official report lists multiple Florida State defensive and skill-position outs, while Louisville's quarterback is probable.
    • Louisville is only 2-3 and Florida State has won its last two games by a combined 58 points.
  6. Florida State Seminoles spread over 4.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 26¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sharp anchor is Louisville -3.5; Pinnacle's devigged Louisville-cover probability is 51.7%.
    • Current-form reweight moves the estimate to about 34%: FSU's five-game margin average is +11.6 versus Louisville's +9.4.
    • FSU must win by at least five, so a close Louisville home win or one-score game loses.
Show all 24 picks
  1. Louisville Cardinals spread −4.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  2. Florida State Seminoles spread +4
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season scoring blend projects Louisville by 1.4 after home-field adjustment; the market gives Louisville 4 points.
    • EPA/play is nearly even: FSU +0.305 offense versus Louisville +0.295, with comparable explosive-play rates (17.9% versus 18.3%).
    • Florida State allows 21.6 points per game versus Louisville’s 29.2; both teams have six days’ rest after Oct. 3 games.
    • Five-game samples are noisy, and the scoring-defense gap may reflect opponent mix rather than true team strength.
  3. Louisville Cardinals to win
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Louisville’s 2026 PFF defense grades 83.0 versus Florida State’s 67.3; coverage is 75.3 versus 62.1.
    • Louisville’s five-game offense success rate is 54.0% versus Florida State’s 52.0%; Louisville’s defensive EPA allowed is 0.1227 versus Florida State’s 0.1291.
    • Most likely loss: Florida State’s stronger five-game offensive EPA rate (0.3048 versus Louisville’s 0.2954) produces enough explosive drives to win outright.
  4. Louisville Cardinals spread −3
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Louisville’s 2026 PFF defense grades 83.0 versus Florida State’s 67.3; coverage is 75.3 versus 62.1.
    • Louisville’s five-game success rate is 54.0% versus Florida State’s 52.0%; explosive rates are nearly even, 18.3% versus 17.9%.
    • Florida State’s offense has the EPA edge, .3048 versus Louisville’s .2954, but Louisville’s defensive film edge supports the home margin.
    • Most likely loss: Florida State’s stronger EPA offense wins enough early downs to keep Louisville from creating separation.
  5. Game total under 57.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so two of three measures agree; backing under, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • REFERENCE only: no independent sharp reference or projection model supports the threshold.
  6. Florida State Seminoles spread +5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book-level count is tied 3-3; two measures agree, while the third does not corroborate.
    • Book levels are tied 3-3, so the signal clears only two of three measures.
  7. Louisville Cardinals −3
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX's latest graded quote is 56.9¢ for Louisville -3; the adjacent Louisville -3.5 was read at 52.61¢.
    • No independent sharp reference was used; the adjacent comparison is ProphetX venue self-reference only.
  8. Game total over 59.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only 2026 game totals averaged 60.7 for Florida State’s three FBS games and 66.8 for Louisville’s four.
    • Florida State averaged +0.281 EPA/play and 53.1% success; Louisville’s defense allowed +0.171 EPA/play.
    • Louisville averaged 33.5 points and +0.222 EPA/play; Florida State’s defense allowed +0.217 EPA/play.
    • QB availability is not explicitly confirmed: cfb_injury_x_signal returned no game rows, and the web report names expected starters without an availability designation; Tier 2/Partial.
  9. Jaleel Skinner over 2.5 receptions
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −132 on FanDuel

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Share stayed role-level while yards per target whipsawed 7.25 → 20.5 → 4.0; the latest 12-yard game is efficiency noise.
    • Routes were 19, 37, 24 with route rates of 82.6%, 90.2%, 75.0%, confirming recurring opportunity.
    • Louisville's latest offense ran 56 plays at a 64.0% pass rate with +0.198 PROE; prior FBS games had 36 and 23 pass attempts.
    • His latest PFF line was only three targets, two receptions and a 75.0% route rate.
  10. Florida State Seminoles over 3.5 first-half points marginFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 78¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Florida State leads 7-0 with 2:37 left in Q1; live data shows Ashton Daniels starting and Louisville's Lincoln Kienholz handling the offense.
    • 2026 pregame averages: Florida State 3.00 points/drive and 0.305 offensive EPA/play; Louisville allows 29.2 points/game across five games.
    • live sharp full-game lines are incoherent (+1.5 Pinnacle, -2.5 DraftKings, -5.5 FanDuel), so this remains exploratory.
    • 2024-26 signed college margin SD is 23.13; square-root first-half scaling still leaves roughly 16.36 points of broad-margin SD.
  11. Florida State Seminoles over 2.5 first-half points marginLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Raw Kalshi yes_ask 0.33 is a fraction, converted to 33¢; 1¢ spread and 551 contracts traded.
    • 2023, 25 CFB signed-margin SD was 21.96 across 2,764 games; sqrt-half scaling gives SD 15.53.
    • Projected Louisville first-half mean is +1.9; model probability of FSU winning by 2.5+ is 38.8% versus 33¢.
    • No independent first-half sharp reference; Pinnacle Louisville -3.5 is only a full-game cross-check.
  12. Ousmane Kromah over 78.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Laplace-smoothed current-season hit model: 85.7% (5 of 5 games cleared 78.5).
    • Louisville allows 423.2 yards per game, 74th-most favorable over matchup among 269 teams.
    • Kromah has logged 14-22 carries in all five 2026 appearances, supporting repeatable workload.
    • The 423.2-yard defensive average uses only five games and is noisy.
  13. Florida State Seminoles −3.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +220 on DraftKings

    CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent offense EPA/play: Florida State +0.3045, Louisville +0.2954; Florida State is 3-2.
    • Estimated cover probability 28%; fair odds +257 versus +220 market price, implying 31.3%.
    • Louisville owns the stronger 2026 grade profile: 90.1 overall versus Florida State 81.9.
  14. Under 30.5 first-half total
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 64.6 FSU and 67.8 Louisville plays per game; clean pace averages 27.79 and 27.41 seconds/play.
    • Last-three drive sample: FSU 35 drives, Louisville 36; combined 5.36 plays per drive.
    • Kienholz is reported good to go by On3, but not officially confirmed as the starter; recurrence would change the pace estimate.
  15. Under 60.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cross-matchup scoring blend centers near 61 points before weather adjustment; the under gets a modest edge at 60.5.
    • Louisville’s PFF defense grade is 83.0, while Florida State’s defense allowed 21.6 points per game through five.
    • Forecast snippets indicate meaningful shower and gust risk near kickoff, a downside for passing and explosive plays.
    • Both offenses average above 0.29 EPA/play and above 0.15 explosive-play rate in the current-season sample.
  16. Florida State Seminoles +4
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • own 54% cover estimate versus a 50.0¢ claim price (+100); ProphetX offers a full four points.
    • Florida State is 3-2 with 33.2 points for and 21.6 against over five games; Louisville is 2-3 at 38.6 for and 29.2 against.
    • FSU averages 0.305 offensive EPA/play versus Louisville's 0.295; the market's sharp reference is Louisville -3.5, while ProphetX offers FSU +4.
    • Most likely loss: Louisville wins by 5 or more after testing Florida State's depleted secondary and linebacker depth.
  17. Total points under 60
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: ProphetX team-total rungs are Florida State 26.5 and Louisville 32.5, summing to 59.
    • PROJECTION context: five-game averages show Florida State at 27.79 seconds per play and Louisville at 22.25, with mixed scoring signals.
    • Most likely loss: efficient offenses convert explosive plays and push the total above 60.
  18. Game total over 67
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • At Q1 3:40 the score is 7-0; FSU's opening touchdown drive produced repeated successful plays, while Louisville's response also generated positive-EPA plays.
    • The quote is live and liquid enough for this flat 1-unit call; this is a venue-ladder dislocation, not a payout-size argument.
    • DraftKings' live total is 60.5, and no same-line sharp reference supports over 67; the ProphetX under quote could be the more accurate side.

Questions

Who won Florida State vs. Louisville?

The Louisville won 44–20 on Friday, Oct 9, 2026.

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