Morehead State vs. DaytonFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalWelcome Stadium
Morehead State1–4
28–56Final
Dayton3–1
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MORE | 7 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 28 |
| DAYT | 14 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 56 |
Top model pick, graded
WonDayton Flyers −19.5 −115
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Morehead State's latest offense posted -0.2355 EPA/play, 37.5% success, and 0.909 points per drive.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-4 on this game · −63% return
- Game total under 54.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Novig
2 modelsCFB HunterV2, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB HunterV2- Model 59% versus Novig's 52% takeable pregame probability; +7 percentage points before any in-play fee.
- Morehead State scored only 12 points across its last three games and averaged 25.4 points season-wide only because of a 75-point outlier.
- Dayton's defense allowed 30 in its latest game, and Morehead State's defense has allowed 225 in five games.
Long Way Home- a simple 2026 form blend points to roughly 47, 51 total points, below 54.5.
- Dayton's four completed 2026 totals were 63, 37, 31, and 52; three stayed below this number.
- Most likely loss: Dayton reaches 40-plus points and Morehead State adds short-field or garbage-time scores.
- Morehead State Eagles spread +27.5−100%Lost
Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model 68% versus the 60.5¢ takeable contract price; roughly +7.5 percentage points before venue fee.
- Morehead State is 1-4, but Dayton's current-season scoring margin is only +10.2 per recent-form data.
- Morehead State scored 12 total points across its last three games, while Dayton allowed 30 in its latest game.
- Morehead State's early 75- and 40-point games make its offensive baseline highly opponent-sensitive.
- Dayton Flyers −19.5+87%Won
Taken at −115 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Morehead State's latest offense posted -0.2355 EPA/play, 37.5% success, and 0.909 points per drive.
- Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed: Bryce Schondelmyer and David Parsons; both teams had seven days' rest.
- Home-field Dayton projects around 23 points better; fair spread estimated Dayton -23.0 versus the -19.5 market line.
- Dayton's latest defense allowed +0.332 EPA/play and 30 points, so the matchup data are not uniformly supportive.
- Morehead State Eagles spread +20.5−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3, so the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it pairing supplies two of three measures; backing Morehead State +20.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Only venue self-reference supports the read; there is no independent same-line confirmation, and the 3-3 book-level tie does not corroborate it.
Questions
Who won Morehead State vs. Dayton?
The Dayton won 56–28 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.