Montana vs. Northern ArizonaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalJ. Lawrence Walkup Skydome
Montana5–1
44–49Final
Northern Arizona4–2
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONT | 7 | 17 | 0 | 21 | 44 |
| NORT | 7 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 49 |
Top model pick, graded
WonNorthern Arizona Lumberjacks over 9.5 −110
Why Bills Belichicks likes it: Brian Wright owns a 33-8 (.805) prior head-coaching record; Bobby Kennedy has no prior head-coaching record.
Bills BelichicksDown 11% this season · 28 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-6 on this game · −19% return
- Montana Grizzlies to win−100%Lost
Taken at 73¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCFB Heater, D1 WinnerWhy 2 models like it
CFB Heater- Montana is on the road at Northern Arizona, and FCS outcomes carry meaningful variance.
D1 Winner- Latest charted EPA/play: Montana +0.255 vs Northern Arizona -0.049, with a .518 vs .461 success-rate advantage.
- PFF overall grade is 88.5 for Montana versus 77.7 for Northern Arizona; passing grades are 90.5 versus 70.2.
- NBC Montana reports several Montana defensive backs are dealing with injuries; no official FCS availability report is on file.
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks over 9.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on BetMGM
Bills BelichicksDown 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Brian Wright owns a 33-8 (.805) prior head-coaching record; Bobby Kennedy has no prior head-coaching record.
- NAU +9.5 is the target underdog; the opener was +10, a 0.5-point move against NAU.
- NAU has a +5 turnover margin in three charted games (+1.67 per game), versus Montana's +1 (+0.33).
- Montana is 5-1 with a +15.0 recent scoring margin; NAU is 4-2 with a -1.0 margin.
- Montana Grizzlies −9.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Efficiency: Montana averages +0.254 offensive EPA/play and .510 success rate versus NAU's -0.049 and .466.
- Matchup: NAU allows +0.242 defensive EPA/play; Montana allows +0.145, with explosive rates favoring Montana .150 to .102.
- Form/rest: Montana's three-game margin is +9.0; NAU's is -11.7; both last played October 3, providing seven days' rest.
- Biggest risk: NAU's home field, Flagstaff altitude and indoor familiarity can erase part of Montana's efficiency edge.
- Game total under 64.5−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 58-point blended score projection is 6.5 below 64.5, a 10.1% projection gap.
- Under hit in 4 of 6 current-season games for each team; last-five rates are 60% and 80%.
- NAU recent offense: -0.079 EPA/play and 45.2% success rate; Montana owns an 88.5 overall grade.
- Montana scored 62 and 36 in its last two games; explosive plays can clear 64.5 if NAU sustains drives.
- Montana Grizzlies over 10.5 margin−100%Lost
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PFF team grade favors Montana 88.5, 77.7; passing grade is 90.5, 70.2, with Ah Yat at 9 TD and 0 INT.
- NAU is 11-2 at the Walkup Skydome since 2024 and has won three of the last four meetings.
- Montana Grizzlies spread −8.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Through three 2026 games, Montana leads NAU in offensive EPA/play 0.254 to -0.049, success rate .514 to .461, and explosive rate .150 to .102.
- Partial-tier FCS matchup: the three-game samples are not restricted to FBS opponents and are not opponent-adjusted.
Show all 8 picks
- Northern Arizona Lumberjacks spread +9.5+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days - Northern Arizona Lumberjacks to win+257%Won
Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The official Montana preview confirms the game is at the 7,000-foot Walkup Skydome; NAU is 4-2 and Montana 5-1, making this a live home-underdog projection rather than a blind longshot.
- Most likely loss: Montana's No. 2/3 profile and stronger overall form control the game, with NAU unable to turn home altitude into enough points.
Questions
Who won Montana vs. Northern Arizona?
The Northern Arizona won 49–44 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.