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Tulsa vs. NavyFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalNavy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Tulsa3–2
26–34Final
Navy1–3
Score by period
Team1234T
TLSA1466026
NAVY7761434

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game 1st-half total over 23.5 points 51¢

Why Kickoff Script likes it: Observed snaps and pace imply about 34 Tulsa plays and 33 Navy plays in a 30-minute half before possession adjustments.

Kickoff ScriptDown 7% this season · 363 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 5-8 on this game · −17% return

  1. Tulsa Golden Hurricane spread +33 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Long Way Home +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • FBS coverage gate cleared: Tulsa has 5 and Navy 4 current-season efficiency rows; PFF overall grades are close, Tulsa 80.6 and Navy 82.4.
    • Most likely loss: Navy's home option attack converts its +0.0663 offensive EPA/play into sustained drives against Tulsa's defense and wins by four or more.
    Long Way Home
    • PROJECTION; NO REFERENCE, Tulsa's current-season defensive EPA allowed averages -0.006/play across five rows versus Navy's +0.086 across four.
    • Tulsa's recent form is 3-2 with a +6.6 scoring margin; Navy is 1-3 at +2.5, making Navy -3 look too wide.
    • Most likely loss: Navy's home run game controls possession and wins by 4 or more.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Tulsa's 2026 defensive EPA allowed is -0.0058 versus Navy's +0.0863; lower allowed EPA supports the underdog's margin resistance.
    • Tulsa's offense averages +0.0726 EPA/play and +0.1008 PROE, while Navy's PROE is -0.1057; Tulsa has the more aggressive offensive profile.
    • Tulsa's starting quarterback was not officially confirmed; the game-specific CFB X-signal feed was empty, making personnel status Thin.
  2. Navy Midshipmen to win2 models agree
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Money, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Money
    • Backing Navy, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches. Live ProphetX quote is -142, represented as 58.68¢.
    Long Way Home
    • Navy -2.5 must win outright, so the exchange's own spread ladder implies materially more Navy win equity than its moneyline price.
    • Live score is Tulsa 17, Navy 7, yet the spread remains Navy -2.5; the +200 outright quote is structurally inconsistent with that related market.
    • Most likely loss: Tulsa's 17-7 lead and superior live efficiency hold, leaving Navy unable to win outright.
  3. Tulsa Golden Hurricane spread +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tulsa’s defense allows -0.006 EPA/play versus Navy’s 0.084; Baylor Hayes and Jackson Gutierrez are same-day expected starters matching latest pass leaders.
    • Most likely loss: Navy’s 2.432 points per drive and home field produce a win by three or more.
  4. Game 1st-half total over 23.5 points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Observed snaps and pace imply about 34 Tulsa plays and 33 Navy plays in a 30-minute half before possession adjustments.
    • Tulsa's +10.1% PROE and 44.0% success rate support early scoring aggression, while both current quarterbacks were confirmed by official team previews.
    • PPD and pace are full-game aggregates rather than first-half splits; five Tulsa and four Navy games leave a thin sample.
  5. Tulsa Golden Hurricane 1st-half winner
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tulsa averaged 25.7 seconds per play over five games versus Navy's 29.4, creating a faster opening-script environment.
    • Tulsa's recent PROE was +10.1%; Navy's was -10.6%, a strong aggression contrast for first-half side value.
    • EPA matchup indicator favors Tulsa: Tulsa offense +0.073 versus Navy defense allowed +0.087, compared with Navy +0.082 versus Tulsa allowed -0.006.
    • Navy's four-game offensive PPD average is 2.43, above Tulsa's 2.15, and its explosive rate is higher.
  6. Tulsa Golden Hurricane over 20.5 team points
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 27.8 points per game through five 2026 games; Tulsa cleared 20.5 in four.
    • Navy allows 22.75 points per game, with +0.0838 defensive EPA allowed per play.
    • Tulsa offense averages +0.0726 EPA per play; Baylor Hayes returned and accounted for five touchdowns last week.
    • Tulsa scored only six points against Arkansas, showing meaningful downside against stronger defenses.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Tulsa Golden Hurricane spread +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tulsa's 2026 form is +0.0726 offensive EPA/play and -0.0065 defensive EPA allowed versus Navy's +0.0663 and +0.0863.
    • PFF's 2026 card gives Tulsa an 81.5 pass-block grade and 73.7 coverage grade versus Navy's 67.1 and 49.9, supporting a competitive margin.
    • QB gate checked: Baylor Hayes and Jackson Gutierrez led the latest pass-attempt boxes; current official previews confirm Hayes' return/captain status and Gutierrez's quarterback usage.
    • Most likely loss: Navy wins by 4 or more; Tulsa +3.5 has no protection at margin 4.
  2. Tulsa Golden Hurricane to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tulsa's 2026 profile has better defensive EPA allowed, -0.0065 versus Navy's +0.0863, and a better scoring margin, +6.6 versus +2.5.
    • Tulsa averages 27.8 points per game against 21.2 allowed; Navy averages 25.25 against 22.75 through four games.
    • The predictor is essentially a toss-up, so the 53% estimate relies on a modest Tulsa adjustment rather than a large model separation.
  3. Tulsa Golden Hurricane first-half spread NO 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle’s full-game Navy -3 (-105) scales to a first-half Navy mean near +1.5.
    • 2,479 2024, 26 regular-season CFB finals produce SD_full 15.84; sqrt-half scaling gives SD_1H 11.20, not 7.92.
    • at the exact Tulsa-over-2.5 rung, N(+1.5, 11.20²) gives Tulsa NO about 64% versus 62¢; the rung has 1¢ width and 1,545 contracts traded.
    • Only five Tulsa and four Navy games inform current EPA, pace, explosive rate and points-per-drive inputs; opponent adjustment is thin.
  4. Game total under 48.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX prices under 48.5 at -121 (54.75¢) versus under 48 at -119 (54.34¢): only 0.41 percentage points for converting 48 from push to win.
    • Under 48.5 still loses at 49 or more; no team-level scoring estimate is being claimed.

Questions

Who won Tulsa vs. Navy?

The Navy won 34–26 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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