Youngstown State vs. Indiana StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalMemorial Stadium (Terre Haute
Youngstown State4–2
57–24Final
Indiana State2–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YOUN | 15 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 57 |
| IU | 10 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonYoungstown State Penguins spread −19.5 49¢
Why Long Way Home likes it: Youngstown State beat South Dakota by 19; Indiana State lost at South Dakota by 30, a 49-point common-opponent margin gap before venue adjustment.
Long Way HomeDown 4% this season · 3702 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-4 on this game · −59% return
- Game total under 64.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsCFB HunterV2, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB HunterV2- 61.4 points is the combined average of both teams' six current-season game totals.
- Youngstown State has allowed 23.2 points per game; Indiana State's offense produced -0.108 EPA/play across its recent charted sample.
- Youngstown State has scored 47 and 70 in two current-season games; explosive plays can break the under quickly.
Long Way Home- Retrieved 2026 team-game rows average 52.0 combined points: Youngstown State 29.3 scored and Indiana State 22.7.
- Indiana State has allowed 44, 42, and 44 points in the retrieved games, but Youngstown State’s corresponding totals were 58, 75, and 44; the blend remains below 64.5.
- Most likely loss: Youngstown State exploits Indiana State’s defense, creates short fields, and reaches the mid- to high-30s with enough Sycamore scoring to clear 64.5.
- Indiana State Sycamores to win−100%Lost
Taken at 10¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Indiana State Sycamores over 19.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PWP grade 73/100; estimated cover probability 57.5% versus 52.3% devigged sportsbook probability.
- Six-game scoring blend projects approximately Youngstown State 37, Indiana State 23: a 14-point margin, 5.5 points inside the spread.
- The Polymarket US contract costs 51.5¢ for Indiana State +19.5, below the sportsbook-derived 52.3% fair probability.
- Youngstown State is 4-2 while Indiana State is 2-4, and the Penguins' 85.2 overall PFF grade exceeds Indiana State's 78.1.
- Youngstown State Penguins spread −19.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Youngstown State beat South Dakota by 19; Indiana State lost at South Dakota by 30, a 49-point common-opponent margin gap before venue adjustment.
- Last-game EPA split favors YSU: +0.1714 offense and +0.0092 defense allowed versus Indiana State at -0.2045 and +0.2730.
- Youngstown State's recent results are 47-28 over South Dakota and 28-16 at Southern Illinois, supporting a multi-score road-favorite projection.
- Most likely loss: Indiana State's home field and a slow, low-possession game keep YSU from clearing 20 points.
Questions
Who won Youngstown State vs. Indiana State?
The Youngstown State won 57–24 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.