Get app

North Dakota State vs. UNLVFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAllegiant Stadium
North Dakota State5–0
7–13Final
UNLV3–2
Score by period
Team1234T
NORT07007
UNLV703313

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 47.5 −102

Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: NDSU allows only 9.8 points per game and posts -0.029 defensive EPA/play allowed across five games.

Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 5-16 on this game · −54% return

  1. North Dakota State Bison to win5 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −134 on FanDuel

    5 modelsD1 Winner, Picks With Pink Grading System +3
    Why 5 models like it
    D1 Winner
    • NDSU is 5-0 with a +23.8 average margin; UNLV is 3-2 at +1.4.
    • NDSU leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.242 to 0.017 and success rate 52.9% to 46.0%.
    • UNLV has home-field advantage indoors and the model predictor projects a near-pick'em game.
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • 5-0 record with 168 points scored and 49 allowed through five games.
    • NDSU recent offense EPA/play is +0.242 versus UNLV's +0.111.
    • NDSU has multiple reported outs and questionables among backs, receivers, and offensive linemen.
    CFB HunterV2
    • NDSU is 5-0 with 33.6 points scored and 9.8 allowed per game.
    • Current-season team grade: NDSU 94.0 versus UNLV 74.3; offense 85.0 versus 68.2.
    • Only five current-season games create meaningful sample and opponent-adjustment uncertainty.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Five-game EPA profile favors NDSU: +0.242 offense vs UNLV +0.017, and -0.028 defensive EPA allowed vs +0.075.
    • NDSU also leads success rate .526 to .460 and scoring margin: 33.6 points scored, 9.8 allowed versus UNLV's 25.0 and 23.6.
    • Partial-tier matchup: NDSU is an FCS opponent against UNLV, and the five-game sample is not opponent-adjusted.
  2. North Dakota State Bison spread −2.54 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    4 modelsHeater Two-Hour, Kickoff Ledger +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Heater Two-Hour
    • Both sides are quoted and the full-game -2.5 rung is liquid; the ladder is monotone around the market line.
    • The spread already moved from NDSU -3 to -2.5, so some signal is incorporated rather than wholly unrecognized.
    Kickoff Ledger
    • NDSU leads UNLV by 0.225 EPA/play in season offense-versus-defense indicators: +0.242 offense versus UNLV's +0.075 defensive EPA allowed.
    • NDSU has the stronger efficiency profile: 0.526 success rate and 2.827 points per drive versus UNLV's 0.460 and 1.868.
    • UNLV has home-field advantage and Arnold's mobility can punish NDSU if the game becomes a broken-play contest.
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Matchup EPA gap favors NDSU: its offense is +0.1702 above UNLV's defensive allowance; UNLV's offense is only +0.0414 above NDSU's allowance.
    • NDSU also leads the current PFF team card 94.0, 74.3 overall and 85.0, 68.2 offensively; sportsbook reference is UNLV +2.5 around -110.
    • Most likely loss: UNLV's 26.54-second pace and home setting create extra possessions, allowing a narrow Rebels win or a 1, 2 point NDSU win.
    Key Number CFB
    • PROJECTION context: NDSU has +0.242 EPA/play offense and -0.028 defensive EPA allowed versus UNLV at +0.017 and +0.075; PFF grades are 94.0 to 74.3.
    • Most likely loss: NDSU wins by two or fewer, or UNLV wins; -2.5 requires a three-point margin.
  3. North Dakota State Bison −2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +0.242 offensive EPA/play vs UNLV +0.017; defensive EPA/play allowed -0.029 vs +0.075
    • PFF overall grade 94.0 vs 74.3, with NDSU also ahead in offense and coverage
    • NDSU is 5-0 with +23.8 average margin over its last five; UNLV is 3-2 at +1.4
    • NDSU carries 17 injury listings, including multiple questionable running backs and offensive linemen
  4. North Dakota State Bison wins 1st Half
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Front RunnerDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • full-game Pinnacle NDSU favorite scaled to a first-half margin distribution, with a raised 10-point threshold.
    • NDSU led at halftime in all five 2026 games; mean halftime margin was +15.6, versus UNLV's +4.4.
    • NDSU leads UNLV season-to-date in offensive EPA/play (.242 vs .017), success rate (.526 vs .460), and points/drive (2.83 vs 1.87).
    • Only five games per team; raw halftime margins are noisy and only partly opponent-adjusted.
  5. Game total under 47.5
    +98%Won

    Taken at −102 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NDSU allows only 9.8 points per game and posts -0.029 defensive EPA/play allowed across five games.
    • NDSU's 29.33 seconds per play is materially slower than UNLV's 26.81, limiting possessions if the Bison control the game.
    • UNLV averages only 1.868 points per drive; its offense is +0.017 EPA/play, while NDSU's defense is the better unit in this matchup.
    • NDSU's offense averages 2.827 points per drive and could produce an over by itself against UNLV's +0.075 defensive EPA allowed.
  6. Total points under 48
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Opponent matchup gaps favor the lower score: NDSU offense exceeds UNLV defensive allowance by 0.1669 EPA/play; reverse gap is 0.0461.
    • PFF overall/defense grades favor NDSU 94.0/83.8 to UNLV 74.3/71.6, supporting UNLV scoring drag.
    • Most likely loss: UNLV’s faster 26.70-second pace and roughly +5.4% average PROE create enough extra possessions.
Show all 14 picks
  1. North Dakota State Bison 1st-half winner
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NDSU averages +0.242 offensive EPA/play and 52.6% success over five 2026 games.
    • UNLV averages only 45.9% success and 1.868 points/drive versus NDSU's 2.827.
    • NDSU's defense allows -0.0285 EPA/play; UNLV's defense allows +0.0753 EPA/play.
    • NDSU's recent sample includes mixed FCS/FBS opposition; opponent-quality adjustment is uncertain.
  2. North Dakota State Bison wins by over 3.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NDSU averages a +23.8 margin through five games; UNLV averages +1.4 through five.
    • NDSU's 94.0 team grade and +0.242 offensive EPA per play support a multi-point edge.
    • Margin variance is wide: NDSU's closest win was only six points at Air Force.
  3. Game total under 48
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup blend projects 46.0 points: NDSU 33.6 scored and UNLV 23.6 allowed, plus UNLV 25.0 scored and NDSU 9.8 allowed, averaged by side.
    • NDSU allows -0.0289 EPA/play versus UNLV’s +0.0172 offense; PFF defense grades favor NDSU 83.8 to 71.6.
    • QB gate cleared: latest passing boxes lead with Nathan Hayes and Jackson Arnold, and both official Oct. 6 previews identify them without a battle or availability concern.
    • Most likely loss: the game reaches 49 or more points; UNLV scored 39 against Cal and NDSU scored 38 against Air Force.
  4. North Dakota State Bison first-half spread over 6.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,596 completed 2024, 26 regular/postseason CFB games give SD_full 15.68; sqrt-half scaling gives SD_1H 11.09, not 7.84.
    • current NDSU/UNLV EPA, points-per-drive, pace, explosive-rate and PROE profiles, blended with Pinnacle’s NDSU -2.5 full-game line, produce a first-half NDSU mean near +2.2.
    • The full-game histogram’s 7-point mass is 189 of 2,596 games; first-half mass is unobserved and may make 6.5 more difficult than the smooth model implies.
  5. Game first-half total over 23.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 69.8 UNLV and 68.0 NDSU plays/game blend to 27.94 seconds/play.
    • 115 season drives and 676 drive plays imply 5.88 plays/drive; 1,800×0.95÷27.94 projects 61.2 first-half plays, or 10.4 drives.
    • Indoor Allegiant Stadium removes the weather possession cut; Hayes and Arnold are supported by current beat/official-note checks.
    • The 95% clock-use assumption and five-game samples drive the 10.4-drive estimate; either can be wrong.
  6. North Dakota State Bison under 48.5 total
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quotes under 48.5 at -116 (53.70¢) versus under 48 at -107 (51.69¢), only a 2.01-point gap.
    • Totals of 49 or more lose the ticket; the neighboring whole rung would push at 48 instead of winning.
  7. North Dakota State Bison spread −3
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • through five games, North Dakota State owns +0.242 offensive EPA/play versus UNLV's +0.017.
    • North Dakota State's 52.6% offensive success rate and 9.8 points allowed per game materially outclass UNLV's 46.0% and 23.6.
    • Most likely loss: UNLV wins outright or North Dakota State wins by only one or two.
  8. Total Points under 47
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 tempo is moderate: NDSU 29.33 seconds/play and UNLV 27.70; neither offense projects a possession-count spike.
    • Personnel gate cleared: Nathan Hayes and Jackson Arnold led their latest passing attempts, and both official team previews identify them as the expected starters.
    • Most likely loss: UNLV’s home offense repeats its 39-point Cal performance and the game clears 47.

Questions

Who won North Dakota State vs. UNLV?

The UNLV won 13–7 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.