Harvard vs. CornellFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalSchoellkopf Field
Harvard3–0
41–29Final
Cornell2–1
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HARV | 0 | 21 | 17 | 3 | 41 |
| CORN | 10 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 29 |
Top model pick, graded
WonOver 40.5 total points −110
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Cornell averages 36.5 points and Harvard 17.0; a simple opponent-adjusted projection reaches 43.3.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-5 on this game · −68% return
- Cornell Big Red spread +7−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsDrift, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
Drift- Cornell averages +0.2787 offensive EPA/play versus Harvard +0.0480, with success rate .5158-.4706 and explosive rate .1580-.0914.
- Cornell's current-season scoring margin is +17.0 per game versus Harvard's +3.5; both teams have a current-season sample, but only two games each.
- Most likely loss: Harvard's stronger underlying reputation and slightly better defensive EPA turn Cornell's two-game efficiency edge into noise.
Long Way Home- Cornell's latest two wins produced +0.2065 and +0.3509 offensive EPA/play with 51.6% success rates; the market may be over-weighting Harvard's 3-0 recent run.
- Cornell has scored 38 and 35 in its last two, while Harvard's last two wins were 14-10 and 20-17; a seven-point home cushion is valuable in a narrow matchup.
- Most likely loss: Harvard's defense repeats its low-scoring form and wins by eight or more after forcing short fields.
- Cornell Big Red to win−100%Lost
Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsCFB HunterV2, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB HunterV2- Cornell leads Harvard by 0.231 EPA per play and 4.5 success-rate points in the current charted sample.
- Cornell has the stronger overall 2026 grade, 88.3 to 84.3, and owns home-field advantage.
- Only two advanced games are charted for each team, making the efficiency gap fragile.
Long Way Home- Most likely loss: Harvard's 3-0 recent form holds while Cornell's two-game offensive spike regresses; Harvard wins outright.
- Over 40.5 total points+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Cornell averages 36.5 points and Harvard 17.0; a simple opponent-adjusted projection reaches 43.3.
- Cornell’s offense leads this matchup in EPA/play (+0.279), success rate (51.6%), and explosiveness (15.8%).
- Both confirmed quarterbacks are active starters, and both teams have seven days’ rest.
- The two-game samples are thin, and Cornell’s 36.5-point scoring average may regress sharply.
- Cornell Big Red +6.5−100%Lost
Taken at +100 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Cornell averages +0.279 EPA/play and 51.6% success versus Harvard’s +0.048 and 47.1%.
- Defensive efficiency is nearly even: Cornell allows -0.0331 EPA/play; Harvard allows -0.0365.
- Both teams had seven days’ rest; no recovery disadvantage offsets Cornell’s home field.
- Only two 2026 advanced-stat games per team make Cornell’s EPA advantage highly sample-sensitive.
Questions
Who won Harvard vs. Cornell?
The Harvard won 41–29 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.