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LSU vs. KentuckyFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalKroger Field
LSU4–1
34–35Final
Kentucky4–1
Score by period
Team12345T
LSU10737734
UK71406835

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total over 52.5 points 44¢

Why Saturday Rung likes it: The six most recent FBS-only game totals for these teams average 56.8 points.

Saturday RungDown 21% this season · 52 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-19 on this game · −46% return

  1. LSU Tigers spread −94 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • PFF supports LSU: 94.8 overall, 93.5 defense and 90.6 passing grades versus Kentucky's 86.3, 73.5 and 59.7.
    • QB gate cleared: last passing boxes were led by Sam Leavitt and Kenny Minchey; an Oct. 9 preview identifies both as starters.
    • LSU's official report lists five players out, and replacement effects are not fully quantified.
    Key Number CFB
    • 9.5 is +105 / 48.78¢; the 1.96-point gap exceeds directional exact-9 mass, favoring protected -9.
    • Projection: LSU posts +0.226 offensive EPA/play and -0.197 defensive EPA allowed versus Kentucky at +0.211 and +0.077.
    • Most likely loss: LSU wins by eight or fewer; exactly nine is a push, not a win.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • LSU averages +0.1786 offensive EPA/play across four 2026 FBS games versus Kentucky's +0.1268.
    • LSU allows -0.1868 defensive EPA/play in that FBS sample; Kentucky allows +0.1001, a 0.2869 EPA/play gap.
    • Kentucky has home field and only needs to lose by eight or fewer; one-score variance is material.
    Long Way Home
    • LSU's five-game profile: +0.226 offensive EPA/play, -0.197 defensive EPA/play allowed, and +28.4 average margin.
    • Kentucky's corresponding profile is +0.212 offensive EPA/play, +0.078 defensive EPA/play allowed, and +7.8 average margin.
    • Most likely loss: Kentucky's home field and offense keep the game within eight or create a late backdoor cover.
  2. Under 50.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    2 modelsShort Week, House Rules
    Why 2 models like it
    Short Week
    • LSU allows -.198 EPA/play versus Kentucky’s +.077, the clearest efficiency mismatch in this matchup.
    • LSU’s 25.2-second pace is slower than Kentucky’s 29.4; LSU also leads points per drive 3.26 to 2.76.
    • The number already moved from 51.5 to 50.5, reflecting the weather and availability news.
    House Rules
    • under 50.5 wins at exactly 50; under 50 merely pushes there.
    • ProphetX prices: under 50.5 is 51.69¢ (-107) versus under 50 at 50.98¢ (-104), only 0.71 points apart.
    • Small gap: 0.71 price points versus 1.422% historical exact-50 frequency; ladder noise can erase it.
  3. Game total over 50.52 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, CFB HunterV2
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP Composite Grade 74/100; blended projection is approximately 56.5 points, 6.0 above the line.
    • Kentucky cleared 50.5 in 7 of its last 10; LSU cleared it in 5 of 10.
    • LSU's last-10 over rate is only 50%, and its defense allows -0.198 EPA per play.
    CFB HunterV2
    • Model projects approximately 54-55 total points; over 50.5 is 58% versus the 49% contract price, a 9-point probability edge.
    • LSU averages 43.6 points and Kentucky 34.6 through five current-season games.
    • Kentucky faces an LSU defense allowing only 15.2 points per game and -0.197 EPA/play.
  4. LSU Tigers under 51.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  5. LSU Tigers spread −14.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Novig

    Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle de-vigged LSU -9.5 anchor is 50.9%.
    • Crossing 10 and 14 adds 7.0 points of stated margin-key mass; adjusted LSU -14.5 fair is 43.9%.
    • Both sides are live and the spread ladder is monotonic through the relevant rungs.
    • The 3.5% masses at 10 and 14 are structural estimates, not a matchup-calibrated model.
  6. Game total over 52.5 points
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The six most recent FBS-only game totals for these teams average 56.8 points.
    • Current-season offenses average 43.6 points for LSU and 34.6 for Kentucky.
    • Kalshi shows a 1c spread and 1,987 contracts traded at the 52.5 rung.
    • LSU has allowed only 15.2 points per game overall, creating a clear under path.
Show all 21 picks
  1. LSU Tigers over 10.5 winning margin
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday RungUp 71% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current FBS margins: LSU +41, -8, +29; Kentucky -28, +10, +1.
    • Margin estimate is 11.5 with SD about 16; estimated win probability is 53%.
    • The model is only about 2 points above the sharp anchor, so variance remains substantial.
  2. CJ Baxter under 53.5 rushing yards
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 53.5 in 8 of his last 10 appearances across 2026 and 2025.
    • LSU's defense ranks 5th of 273 teams by defensive EPA allowed per play at -0.198.
    • Baxter is under this line only 3 of 5 times in 2026, with recent highs of 149 and 87 yards.
  3. Game total under 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 50.5 market vs an estimated fair total near 47.5 after matchup and weather adjustments.
    • LSU allows -0.197 defensive EPA/play; Kentucky allows +0.077, creating a strong defensive contrast.
    • Both starting quarterbacks are confirmed: LSU's Sam Leavitt and Kentucky's Kenny Minchey.
    • Kentucky averages 0.211 offensive EPA/play and scored 35 last week, so its offense can break the under.
  4. Total points under 50.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game sample: LSU allows -0.1968 EPA/play; its 93.5 defense and 93.7 coverage grades counter Kentucky’s offense.
    • Combined pace averages 27.37 seconds/play; LSU and Kentucky PROE average +6.2% and +9.5%, a moderate possession environment.
    • Kentucky’s defense allows +0.0768 EPA/play, giving LSU a scoring path, but the efficiency read remains modestly under 50.5.
    • Most likely loss: Kentucky’s +0.2106 offensive EPA/play sustains efficient drives despite LSU’s strong defense.
  5. 1st-quarter total over 10.5 points
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game points-per-drive averages are 3.26 for LSU and 2.76 for Kentucky.
    • LSU averaged 86.4 plays at a 25.2-second pace; Kentucky averaged 66.8 plays at 29.5 seconds.
    • Bottom-up pace and drive-rate estimate projects roughly 12.5-13.5 first-quarter points.
    • A first quarter has very few possessions; one punt, turnover, or missed field goal dominates the result.
  6. LSU Tigers 1st-half winnerFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 68¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game LSU offense: 0.226 EPA/play, 3.26 points/drive, 25.2-second pace.
    • Kentucky's recent defense allowed 0.077 EPA/play; LSU's defense allowed -0.197 EPA/play.
    • Matchup EPA points strongly toward LSU's opening script despite the road venue.
    • Kentucky's offense posted a 52.7% five-game success rate and can win early downs.
  7. LSU Tigers spread −9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model margin about 11.5 points; LSU wins by over 9.5 at 55% versus 50% implied by the 2.00x contract.
    • LSU is +28.4 points per game in current-season margin; Kentucky is +7.8.
    • LSU defense allows -0.197 EPA/play versus Kentucky's +0.078 allowed; PFF defense grades are 93.5 versus 73.5.
    • LSU has only one current-season road sample and lost that game 24-32 at Ole Miss.
  8. Game total over 51
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • LSU posts +0.225 EPA/play and 3.255 points per drive; Kentucky posts +0.212 EPA/play and 2.764 points per drive.
    • QB gate: latest official boxes lead with Sam Leavitt for LSU and Kenny Minchey for Kentucky; October 10 game-day reports identify both, with Leavitt reporting his hamstring healthy.
    • Most likely loss: LSU's -0.198 defensive EPA allowed suppresses Kentucky and the game finishes 50 or fewer; exactly 51 is a push.
  9. Total Points over 51
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only scoring baseline is 64.3 points across three qualifying opponents per team: LSU 36.7, Kentucky 27.7.
    • LSU averages 43.6 points; Kentucky averages 34.6, while Kentucky’s +0.078 defensive EPA allowed offers LSU multiple scoring paths.
    • QB gate cleared: Sam Leavitt and Kenny Minchey led their latest passing rows; the official LSU preview identifies both for this matchup.
    • Most likely loss: LSU’s -0.198 defensive EPA allowed suppresses Kentucky and the Wildcats fail to reach 20 points.
  10. Under 50.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
  11. Game total under 51
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only 2026: LSU allows -0.187 EPA/play versus Kentucky's +0.099, a 0.286/play defensive gap.
    • LSU's FBS pace is 25.99 seconds/play versus Kentucky's 29.17, a 3.18-second gap favoring fewer possessions.
    • Personnel check: Sam Leavitt said his hamstring would be 100%; a same-day preview identifies Kenny Minchey as Kentucky's quarterback; no cfb injury signal posted.
    • Kentucky's FBS offense still posted +0.125 EPA/play and a 50.7% success rate; sustained drives can clear 51.
  12. LSU Tigers first-half spread over 4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,499 2024, 26 regular-season finals: SD_full 15.80; square-root scaling gives SD_1H 11.17, not 7.90.
    • Pinnacle LSU −9.5 full game; blending the +20.6 current margin gap with market gives μ_1H ≈ +7.1.
    • First-half margins are unobserved; additive-variance scaling omits correlated drives, special teams, clock, and halftime strategy.
  13. LSU Tigers to winFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 75¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  14. LSU Tigers −9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • LSU's season margin is +28.4 points per game versus Kentucky's +7.8.
    • Efficiency matchup favors LSU on both sides: +0.226 offensive EPA/play versus Kentucky's +0.077 defensive EPA allowed, and LSU's defense allows -0.197.
    • Leavitt and Minchey are both confirmed starters; each team has a full seven-day rest interval.
    • Kentucky's home field and projected rain/wind can compress scoring and make a two-score margin harder.
  15. Game first-half total over 23.5 points
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blended pace is 27.36 seconds/play from LSU 25.34 and Kentucky 29.38; observed plays/drive blend is 6.11.
    • No independent same-rung sharp quote; the derived reference caps this at LEAN.

Questions

Who won LSU vs. Kentucky?

The Kentucky won 35–34 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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