Florida A&M vs. Alabama StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalASU Football Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
| ALA | 7 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 27 |
Top model pick, graded
WonFlorida A&M Rattlers +14.5 51¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-11 on this game · −84% return
- Florida A&M Rattlers +14.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Alabama State spread −14.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model 52.5% cover probability: ALST current-season net EPA/play edge is +0.65 versus FAMU.
- ALST offensive success rate 43.0% and explosive rate 9.1% exceed FAMU's 29.3% and 3.7%.
- FAMU has -44.5 average scoring margin; ALST is -0.3, despite only 2 versus 3 current-season games.
- The most likely loss is Alabama State winning by 14 or fewer; the spread is close to fair.
- Florida A&M Rattlers under 49.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The captured Polymarket US total moved toward Under on the nearby 48.5 rung: Under 38.5c opening to 50.5c pregame.
- Recent team data are thin and poor offenses can still produce explosive scores, turnovers, or defensive touchdowns; the total can clear 49.5 quickly.
- Game under 47.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Fair total 43.5, four points below FanDuel's 47.5.
- FAMU posted -0.19 offensive EPA/play, 29.3% success and 3.7% explosiveness in two games.
- Season scoring averages are Alabama State 22.7 and FAMU 14.0 points.
- Biggest risk: rain and gusts create turnovers or short fields, producing non-offensive points.
- Alabama State Hornets wins 1st half−100%Lost
Taken at 79¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Live pregame reporting clears the QB gate: Aaron Frye starts for Alabama State and Armond Parker starts for Florida A&M.
- Both starters are replacement quarterbacks, so the opening-script projection is less stable than the team rates suggest.
- Alabama State Hornets over 14.5-point win−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Alabama State leads current-season EPA success 43.5%, 29.3% and explosive rate 9.1%, 3.7%.
- Florida A&M has allowed 184 points in five games; Alabama State has allowed 82.
- A 14.5-point margin is sensitive to turnovers, late-game pace, and backdoor scoring.
Show all 12 picks
- Alabama State Hornets to win−100%Lost
Taken at 87¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Alabama State is 3-2 with a +10.0 scoring margin; Florida A&M is 1-4 at -19.4.
- Current-season EPA success is 43.5% for Alabama State versus 29.3% for Florida A&M.
- PFF overall grades favor Alabama State 79.5, 56.3; defense grades favor Alabama State 85.7, 64.3.
- Both starting quarterbacks are freshmen, creating substantial unmodeled performance variance.
- Total points under 50.5−100%Lost
Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Season scoring averages are 26.4 for Alabama State and 17.4 for Florida A&M, combining to 43.8 points.
- Florida A&M's recent offense is -0.12 EPA/play; Alabama State's latest PFF card is 85.7 overall defensively versus Florida A&M's 64.3.
- The CFB histogram puts meaningful mass at exact totals 41 (285/11,082), 44 (278/11,082), and 47 (219/11,082); 50.5 gives three points above the captured main total.
- Florida A&M's defense allowed +0.48 EPA/play in its recent charted games, giving Alabama State a route to a short-field or explosive scoring surge.
- Florida A&M Rattlers under 47.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at −121 on DraftKings
Long WeekDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- FAM averages 14.0 points and -0.19 EPA/play; Alabama State averages 22.7 points and -0.09 EPA/play.
- FAM posts only a 0.29 success rate and 0.04 explosive rate; Alabama State's defense allows -0.02 EPA/play.
- The season scoring baseline is 36.7 combined points before opponent adjustment.
- FAM's defense allows +0.54 EPA/play, giving Alabama State a path to score quickly.
- Game total under 47.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Alabama State averages 22.7 points and Florida A&M 14.0, a 36.7-point combined scoring baseline, 10.8 below 47.5.
- Most likely loss: Florida A&M's defense has allowed 58.5 points per game; Alabama State's 0.09 explosive rate can create quick scores.
- Game total under 50.5−100%Lost
Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 efficiency: Florida A&M posted -0.19 EPA/play, 29.3% success, and 3.7% explosive rate in two games.
- Both starters are confirmed freshman replacements: Armond Parker for FAMU and Aaron Frye for Alabama State.
- FAMU has only two current-season games, so this is Partial-tier rather than Full-tier evidence.
- Alabama State Hornets −14.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Florida A&M's offense is at -0.19 EPA/play across two 2026 games and has scored only 7 and 21 points.
- Florida A&M's defense allowed 40 and 77 points; its +0.53 defensive EPA allowed contrasts with Alabama State's -0.03 across three games.
- The projection favors Alabama State converting the matchup's defensive gap into a margin, while the exchange price is materially better than the sharp same-line reference.
- Most likely loss: Alabama State wins but its own offense stalls; its 2026 offensive EPA/play is only about -0.10 across three games.
Questions
Who won Florida A&M vs. Alabama State?
Florida A&M won 28-27 on Friday, Oct 9, 2026.