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Iowa State vs. BYUFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLaVell Edwards Stadium
Iowa State3–2
10–24Final
BYU4–0
Score by period
Team1234T
ISU030710
BYU1317324

Top model pick, graded

Won

BYU Cougars spread −11.5 50¢

Why Saturday Board likes it: Existing BYU -10.5 position; the line moved to a new -11.5 rung, so this is a same-side update, not a flip.

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-12 on this game · +4% return

  1. BYU Cougars spread −11.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSaturday Board, Rnj
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board
    • Existing BYU -10.5 position; the line moved to a new -11.5 rung, so this is a same-side update, not a flip.
    • Most likely loss: BYU wins by 11 or fewer, with Iowa State staying inside the new number.
    Rnj
    • 1.0-point sportsbook spread variance: BYU -11 at BetOnline to -12 at Pinnacle; DraftKings posts -11.5.
    • Last-4 weighted net EPA/play: BYU +0.367 versus Iowa State +0.076, a +0.291 differential.
    • The gate is met at exactly 1.0 point, below the 1.5-point high-conviction spread threshold.
  2. BYU Cougars spread −10.52 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSaturday Board, Saturday Board Pairs
  3. BYU Cougars −10.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsHeater Early Bird, Long Week
    Why 2 models like it
    Heater Early Bird
    • Sport-filtered records are positive: 17-2, 7-1, and 46-0 respectively.
    • Their recent BYU entries average about 49.7¢; Polymarket US offers the BYU side at 50¢.
    • This is a look-ahead position before final injury and lineup information.
    Long Week
    • +0.303 offensive EPA/play, 0.540 success rate, 0.156 explosive rate; Iowa State: +0.178, 0.447, 0.130.
    • BYU is 4-0 with a +23.0 average margin in its last four; Iowa State is +12.4 across five games.
    • Iowa State's offense can backdoor, scoring 45 points against West Virginia last week.
  4. Legend Glasker over 4.5 receptions
    +134%Won

    Taken at +134 on FanDuel

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Exact market is player_receptions over 4.5 at FanDuel +134; BetOnline's same-line +126/-164 devigs to 41.6% over (fair +140).
    • Typed target share was 3/22, 5/17, 5/26, 5/24: 20.8% mean, 27.3% CV; last-three mean rose to 23.2%.
    • Yards per attributed target cratered 21.7 to 1.8 from first to latest while share rose 13.6% to 20.8%, the required usage-production divergence.
    • Most likely loss: BYU leads by multiple scores, shifts to its run game and Glasker finishes with four or fewer receptions.
  5. BYU Cougars first-half spread over 6.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game BYU -12; current-form margin differential is +10.6, a close directional match.
    • first-half mean +5.3; empirical full-game SD 14.77 scales to 10.44 at half (14.77/√2).
    • exact 6.5 rung gives BYU-over probability 45.4%, hence NO probability 54.6%.
    • Weather gust and precipitation are null in cfb_game; a possible shower forecast leaves possession adjustment unresolved.
  6. BYU Cougars −18.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +215 on FanDuel

    CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • BYU is 4-0 with +23.0 recent scoring margin; L5 offense EPA/play is +0.2864.
    • Estimated cover probability 35%; fair odds +186 versus +215 market price, implying 31.7%.
    • BYU’s projected margin is below 18.5, so the model edge depends on a wide-tail outcome.
Show all 22 picks
  1. Iowa State Cyclones +11.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP projection: BYU by 9.5, 2.0 points below the posted -11.5 handicap.
    • That is a 17.4% relative projection cushion; DraftKings offers -112 on Iowa State +11.5.
    • BYU's recent defensive EPA allowed is 0.0122, while Iowa State's is 0.0682; expect a competitive but imperfect game.
    • BYU is 4-0 with a +23.0 average margin; its home-field edge can erase the cushion.
  2. Iowa State Cyclones win 1st HalfLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup EPA is nearly even: BYU offense .244 adjusted versus ISU defense, ISU offense .230 versus BYU defense.
    • Iowa State’s recent pace averaged 30.4 seconds per play versus BYU’s 32.4, creating a modest opening-script possession edge.
    • Iowa State averaged .451 success rate, .176 offensive EPA/play, and .130 explosive rate across its recent sample.
    • BYU is 4-0 and ranked No. 8, with home-field and overall roster-strength advantages not fully captured by recent EPA.
  3. Game total over 49.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • book_levels are over 3 versus under 3; there is no third-measure corroboration, but the two core measures agree.
    • Backing over, which is thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
    • Venue self-reference only; no independent sharp reference validates this order-flow hypothesis.
  4. Over 46.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 58% model probability versus 51¢ contract price: +7 percentage points before fees.
    • Current-season graded scoring averages are BYU 44.0 points and Iowa State 30.8 points per game.
    • Offensive EPA/play is +0.411 for BYU and +0.137 for Iowa State; the matchup baseline clears 46.5.
    • Both defenses allow roughly 16 points per game in the current graded samples.
  5. Iowa State Cyclones +10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 56% model probability versus 48¢ contract price: +8 percentage points before fees.
    • Current-season margins are BYU +28.3 and Iowa State +14.8 across graded games; the gap is below 10.5 points after matchup adjustment.
    • Iowa State has posted 0.137 EPA/play and a 44.6% success rate this season.
    • BYU is 4-0 at home with a 94.7 PFF team grade versus Iowa State's 88.6.
  6. Game total under 46
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 46 wins at 45 or fewer, pushes at exactly 46; under 46.5 wins at 46, so the contracts are not interchangeable.
    • CFB history: exactly 46 total points occurred in 111 games, 1.002% of completed regular/postseason games.
    • The 1.002% push estimate is league-wide, not Iowa State/BYU-specific; this desk is not projecting the game's scoring.
  7. Total Points under 44.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The adjacent under 43.5 is +127 (44.05¢); the larger under-44.5 win set is inexplicably cheaper.
    • QB gate passed: the latest pass-attempt leaders are Jaylen Raynor and Bear Bachmeier, and the current official Cyclones primer identifies both.
    • Most likely loss: BYU's +0.3025 offensive EPA/play and Iowa State's +0.0585 defensive EPA allowed produce 45 or more points.
  8. BYU Cougars spread −7Favorite
    +52%Won

    Taken at 66¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • BYU current-season offense EPA/play is +0.3025 versus Iowa State +0.1763; defensive EPA allowed is -0.0537 versus +0.0585.
    • PFF team grades favor BYU 94.7 to 88.6, while the same ProphetX event prices BYU moneyline -415.
    • Most likely loss: Iowa State keeps the game within six points; a BYU win by exactly seven is a push rather than a win.
  9. BYU Cougars spread −12
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • FBS-only 2026 averages favor BYU in offensive EPA (+0.229 vs +0.095) and defensive EPA allowed (-0.013 vs +0.189).
    • BYU also leads FBS-only success rate .507-.435 and explosive rate .135-.127; this is a home-field projection, not a simulation.
    • SHARP REFERENCE only: sportsbook main numbers sit 11.5 to 12; ProphetX is offering plus money at -12.
    • CFB injury-X signal returned no rows; Raynor and Bachmeier are supported by current game/player listings, but late QB status is not directly cleared, making this Tier 2.
  10. Game total over 46
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only 2026: BYU +0.229 offensive EPA/play and Iowa State +0.161; success rates .507 and .461.
    • only explosive rates are .135 for BYU and .132 for Iowa State; Iowa State's defense allows +0.134 EPA/play.
    • Pinnacle's pregame total was 47, with over -106; ProphetX offers over 46 at -116.
    • Only three BYU and four Iowa State FBS games inform the efficiency sample.
  11. BYU Cougars over 28.5 team points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +0.2423 opponent-adjusted EPA/play: BYU offense +0.3025 minus Iowa State defensive allowance +0.0602, from 4 and 5 current-season qualifying games.
    • Pace caps this at 0.5u rather than vetoing it: BYU 32.40 and Iowa State opponents 28.69 seconds/play versus the 25.91 FBS median.
    • No game-specific cfb_injury_x_signal row was found; late skill-position news remains possible, and BYU's run-heavy profile can shorten possessions.
  12. Game total under 47
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • BYU allowed -0.0537 defensive EPA/play across four games; its offense averaged +0.3025 EPA/play but posted -0.0237 last week.
    • Pinnacle also showed under 47 at -111; DraftKings/FanDuel were under 46.5 at -112/-108, so ProphetX adds a half-point.
    • Most likely loss: BYU's +0.3025 offensive EPA/play attacks Iowa State's defense allowing +0.0585 and produces 48 or more.
  13. Game first-half total over 23.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 13.1 projected first-half drives: Iowa State 6.6, BYU 6.5, versus 23.0 combined full-game drives.
    • Season-to-date mean PROE is 0.9% and explosive rate 14.3%; the derived first-half uplift is 4.0%, not flat halving.
    • No independent first-half sharp line; this is a derived same-rung reference, so the claim is LEAN, not RECOMMENDED.
  14. Total points under 46.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION context, 2026 sample: BYU averages 32.40 seconds/play and .540 success; Iowa State averages 30.44 seconds/play and .451 success across five games.
    • BYU's defense has allowed -0.054 EPA/play across four games, while Iowa State's offense is only .130 explosive; the low-side scoring path is more plausible than the full-game number implies.
    • Most likely loss: BYU's .540 success and .156 explosive rates attack Iowa State's +0.0585 defensive EPA allowed and create multiple explosive scores.
  15. Game total over 47.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • own estimate is 54% versus 47.62¢ implied; Pinnacle's nearest over 47 is -104.
    • Season production: BYU averages 37.25 points and Iowa State 33.60; the blended matchup baseline is 53.1 points.
    • Iowa State's official game-day report lists four defensive players OUT, expanding BYU's scoring paths.
    • Most likely loss: BYU's two RB outs, including LJ Martin, suppress rushing efficiency and the game finishes 47 or lower.
  16. Iowa State Cyclones to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 20¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • my win estimate is 23.5% versus ProphetX's 19.61¢ price; Pinnacle also prices Iowa State as an underdog at +358.
    • Iowa State's five-game offense averages +0.176 EPA/play, including +0.334 and +0.358 in its last two; that creates a live upset path.
    • BYU's latest offense produced only -0.024 EPA/play against TCU, so the market may be overweighting BYU's 4-0 record and scoring margin.
    • Most likely loss: BYU's superior aggregate profile controls the game; it averages +0.303 offensive EPA/play and 0.540 success versus Iowa State's +0.447 success rate.

Questions

Who won Iowa State vs. BYU?

The BYU won 24–10 on Friday, Oct 9, 2026.

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