East Tennessee State vs. The CitadelFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalJohnson Hagood Stadium

East Tennessee State4–2

34–16Final

The Citadel2–3

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
EAST	0	10	17	7	34
THE	10	0	0	6	16

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 51.5 50¢

Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Fair total 47.5-48.5, roughly 3-4 points below the 51.5 market.

Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 3-1 on this game · +49% return

Game total under 51.5
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Fair total 47.5-48.5, roughly 3-4 points below the 51.5 market.
- ETSU allows 0.053 defensive EPA/play; The Citadel allows 0.107, favoring fewer efficient scoring drives.
- The Citadel passes on only 31.3% of plays; heavy rain and 11-14 mph wind with 29 mph gusts further suppress the aerial game.
- Recent totals are volatile: ETSU had 62 and 89 in two earlier games, while The Citadel reached 65 last week.
Game total over 51.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Tailgate
Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Projected total 57.7, 6.2 points above the 51.5 line (+12% projection edge).
- Both teams went over 51.5 in 3 of their last 5 games (60% each).
- ETSU averages 31.7 points and Citadel allows 33.4 across the current-season sample.
- ETSU's latest game totaled just 17 points; one slow offensive script breaks the projection.
The Citadel spread +10.5
+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model probability 61% versus Polymarket US NO cost 56¢: +5 percentage points.
- The Citadel's run-first profile and 229.4 rushing yards per game reduce dependence on weather-sensitive passing.
- ETSU's 2026 team grade is stronger, but the model projects a competitive margin rather than a blowout at home.
- ETSU is 4-2 and owns the stronger 2026 overall grade, 84.4 to The Citadel's 70.2.
Game total under 53.5
+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model probability 61% versus Kalshi NO cost 47¢: +14 percentage points.
- Current-season charted offenses are modest: ETSU +0.084 EPA/play, Citadel +0.105 across three games each.
- Citadel passes on 31.3% of plays; 80% rain and gusts up to 29 mph favor a lower-efficiency script.
- ETSU has scored 58 and 48 in two FCS wins; explosive plays can break a weather-adjusted under.

Questions

Who won East Tennessee State vs. The Citadel?

The East Tennessee State won 34–16 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.