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Texas A&M vs. MissouriFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMemorial Stadium
Texas A&M3–2
6–27Final
Missouri4–1
Score by period
Team1234T
TA&M30036
MIZ01010727

Top model pick, graded

Won

Missouri to win 64¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-17 on this game · −51% return

  1. Game total over 50.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    3 modelsTempo Gap, CFB HunterV2 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Tempo Gap
      • Official Game Day statuses: Texas A&M has Terry Bussey and Blake Ivy out, Mario Craver game-time decision; Missouri has Ahmad Hardy, Malae Fonoti and Josh Atkins out.
      CFB HunterV2
      • Model centers the matchup around 53, 54 combined points; 57% estimated over probability.
      • Current-season scoring averages are Missouri 37.6 and Texas A&M 31.8 points per game.
      • Both defenses allow under 20 points per game this season, creating a credible low-scoring path.
      Long Way Home
      • Missouri's five latest team-game totals were 62, 55, 44, 59, and 68; four cleared 50.5.
      • The teams' latest five-game scoring averages are 37.6 for Missouri and 31.8 for Texas A&M, a 69.4-point raw scoring blend before opponent adjustment.
      • Most likely loss: Texas A&M repeats its two 41-point recent game totals and Missouri cannot carry the scoreboard alone.
    • Missouri Tigers spread −42 models agree
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsProphetX CFB Lines, Saturday Board Pairs
      Why 2 models like it
      ProphetX CFB Lines
      • Efficiency gap favors Missouri: current offensive EPA/play +0.163 versus Texas A&M +0.071, while defensive EPA allowed is nearly even (-0.096 versus -0.099).
      • Key-number trade: -4 is beyond the key 3, but the plus-money rung compensates; the distribution's projected Missouri margin is about 5 points.
      • Most likely loss: Texas A&M's run game and Marcel Reed turn a near-even efficiency matchup into a one-score road result.
      Saturday Board Pairs
      • PFF 2026 grades favor Missouri: offense 83.3, 69.2, defense 89.6, 80.4, overall 92.9, 84.9.
      • Pinnacle’s reference is Missouri -4 at -112; ProphetX’s -103 offers the better venue price without changing the number.
      • Most likely loss: Texas A&M’s higher success rate and similar -0.097 defensive EPA allowed keep Missouri from separating.
    • Total points over 492 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Tempo Board
      Why 2 models like it
      Saturday Board Pairs
      • Five-game EPA matchup gaps favor scoring: Missouri offense +0.1635 versus A&M defense -0.0989 allowed; A&M +0.0707 versus Missouri -0.0936.
      • only scoring cross-checks point toward roughly 53 combined points after excluding each team’s FCS opener.
      • Most likely loss: the 28.43-second average pace produces too few possessions despite explosive-play ability.
      Tempo Board
      • ProphetX's same-event team totals are Missouri 27.5 and Texas A&M 23.5, summing to 51 against the 49-point full-game rung.
      • Combined current-season scoring is 69.4 points per game; both defenses have negative EPA allowed, but both offenses retain a viable explosive-play path.
      • Most likely loss: the two negative defensive-EPA profiles prove more predictive than the ladder gap, producing red-zone stalls and 49 or fewer points.
    • Texas A&M Aggies to win2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +150 on DraftKings

      2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, ProphetX Pairs
      Why 2 models like it
      Picks With Pink Grading System
      • PWP grade 74/100 (B): qualifying edge with a positive model-price gap.
      • Texas A&M is 3-2 straight up this season and 6-4 over its last 10 regular-season games.
      • Mario Craver remains officially questionable; Texas A&M also lists Terry Bussey and Blake Ivy out.
      ProphetX Pairs
      • Personnel gate: an Oct. 9 matchup report identifies Marcel Reed and Austin Simmons as the expected starting quarterbacks.
      • Likeliest loss path: Missouri's home advantage and superior FBS-only defensive EPA turn the near-pick'em projection into a clear Tigers win.
    • Missouri to win
      +56%Won

      Taken at 64¢ on Polymarket

      CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
    • Missouri Tigers spread 3.5
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

      Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Load-bearing efficiency: Missouri current off EPA/play 0.163 versus Texas A&M 0.073, PPD 2.89 versus 2.58; home field supports the margin distribution.
      • Most likely loss: Texas A&M's strong defense keeps Missouri within three points despite the home-field edge.
    Show all 18 picks
    1. Over 50.5 total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

      Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Possession convergence: 70-75 plays/team, roughly 27-30 seconds/play; 11 possessions and discounted PPD project 51.7 points.
      • Most likely loss: one offense stalls; 50 points or fewer fails Over 50.5.
    2. 1st-quarter total over 10.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

      Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Five-game points-per-drive averages are 2.894 for Missouri and 2.584 for Texas A&M.
      • Official team pages identify Austin Simmons and Marcel Reed as the current starting quarterbacks; last-game pass-attempt leaders agree.
      • A first quarter is a tiny, high-variance sample where one score or stop can swing the result.
    3. Missouri wins 1st half
      +82%Won

      Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

      Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Missouri's five-game offense averages +0.1635 EPA/play versus Texas A&M's +0.0709.
      • EPA matchup proxy favors Missouri: .262 offensive-minus-opponent-defense versus Texas A&M's .167.
      • The estimated edge is only about 3 percentage points over the devigged 1H reference.
    4. Game 1H total over 24.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Five-game 2026 first-half scoring averages: Missouri 22.4, Texas A&M 14.6; combined 37.0 points.
      • Projected first-half drives average 6.4 for Missouri and 5.4 for Texas A&M; PPD model yields 32.5 points.
      • Both offenses have positive EPA matchups versus the opponent's recent defensive EPA allowed; Missouri's advantage is larger.
      • A first half has roughly 11-12 possessions; one turnover, missed field goal, or stalled red zone trip can erase the edge.
    5. Texas A&M Aggies spread +7.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 63¢ on ProphetX

      House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • +7.5 is a half-point rung, so it cannot push; it wins when Missouri leads by exactly 7.
      • The adjacent Texas A&M +7 whole-number rung pushes on exactly 7; historical NCAAF exact-7 margin mass is 821 games, 7.916%.
      • ProphetX quotes Texas A&M +7.5 at -172 (63.24c) versus +7 at -420 (80.77c): the broader half-point contract is 17.53c cheaper.
      • The selected +7.5 has no push; Missouri by 8 or more loses.
    6. Game total under 49.5
      +108%Won

      Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Both defenses allow -0.096 EPA/play; Missouri's PFF defense is 89.6 and Texas A&M's is 80.4.
      • Average pace is 28.47 seconds per play; Texas A&M's offense is only +0.073 EPA/play despite Missouri's +0.163 mark.
      • Most likely loss: Missouri's efficient offense and Texas A&M's recent defensive lapses push the game to 50 or more.
    7. Texas A&M Aggies spread +3.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • EPA/pace read: Missouri's offense is stronger (+0.163 EPA/play vs +0.071), but Texas A&M's defense is similarly strong (-0.099 allowed vs -0.094); the sharp reference is Missouri -3.5.
      • QB gate passed: latest box leaders are Marcel Reed (19 attempts) and Austin Simmons (30); same-day official team pages identify both quarterbacks and neither is out/doubtful.
      • The ladder's +3.5 rung is the preferred key-number entry rather than the thinner +3 quote; no same-game second leg is needed.
      • Most likely loss: Missouri wins by four or more, making the key-number protection irrelevant.
    8. Texas A&M Aggies spread +1.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 41¢ on Novig

      Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle de-vigged anchor is 50.0% at Missouri -3.5 / Texas A&M +3.5.
      • Moving to Texas A&M +1.5 crosses the 3-point key; applying the 6% mass gives 44.0% fair.
      • Texas A&M's latest profile was strong: 0.319 offensive EPA/play, 55.6% success rate, and a 34-7 win over Arkansas.
      • The 3-point mass is a structural adjustment, not a game-specific distribution estimate.
    9. Missouri Tigers first-half spread NO 2.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle full-game Missouri -3.5 agrees with the +4.0 full-game projection scaled to +2.0 first half.
      • Season-to-date: Mizzou +0.163 EPA/play and 2.894 points/drive versus A&M +0.071 and 2.584.
      • The 1.8-point probability edge is thin against an 11.20-point first-half SD; normal-score approximation can miss discrete scoring.
    10. Game over 24.5 first-half total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2026 weeks 1-5: A&M averaged 75.4 plays at 29.7 seconds/play; Missouri 70.0 plays at 27.2 seconds/play.
      • First-half drive uplift uses the matchup: mean PROE +6.6% and mean explosive rate 12.6%, averaged into 9.6%.
      • Both quarterbacks are supported by last-game plurality and live Oct. 9 previews: Marcel Reed and Austin Simmons.
      • Derived reference, not an independent first-half sharp line; venue self-reference limits this to LEAN.
    11. Texas A&M Aggies spread +4.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Texas A&M's five-game success rate is .477 versus Missouri's .455; defensive EPA allowed is nearly identical (-.0986 vs -.0962).
      • A&M's +13.2 average margin is understated by the LSU -29; it rebounded to a 27-point Arkansas win last week.
      • DraftKings and Pinnacle show Missouri -4, while FanDuel shows -3.5; ProphetX gives A&M the extra half-point.
      • Missouri is at home and averages a +17.6 margin; its latest game produced 560 yards and 45 points.
    12. Total Points over 50
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • UPDATE from held over 49: the board moved to a new 50 rung; this is not a repeat.
      • ProphetX team totals 27.5 + 23.5 sum to 51, one point above the game rung.
      • Most likely loss: negative defensive EPA allowed for both teams (-0.0986 Texas A&M; -0.0962 Missouri) suppresses scoring below 50.

    Questions

    Who won Texas A&M vs. Missouri?

    The Missouri won 27–6 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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