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UCLA vs. OregonFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalAutzen Stadium
UCLA4–0
17–15Final
Oregon3–1
Score by period
Team1234T
UCLA370717
ORE600915

Top model pick, graded

Won

Dierre Hill Jr. under 2.5 receptions +135

Why Touch Share Saturday likes it: 10.7% typed-target share (4/29, 3/43, 4/35) over the last three games; 26.4% share CV is below the 35% stability gate.

Touch Share SaturdayDown 18% this season · 61 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 12-8 on this game · +41% return

  1. UCLA Bruins +10.52 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    2 modelsKickoff Ledger, D1 Winner
    Why 2 models like it
    Kickoff Ledger
    • UCLA owns a 0.287 offensive EPA/play versus Oregon's 0.264 through four 2026 games.
    • Success rates favor UCLA 50.9% to 49.4%; Oregon's defensive EPA edge is modest, -0.036 to UCLA's -0.008.
    • Raiola threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns in Oregon's September 26 game; the first-start downgrade may be overstated.
    D1 Winner
    • Oregon's Dante Moore is ruled out; Dylan Raiola is confirmed for his first Oregon start.
    • Spread moved from Oregon -11.5 to -10.5 after the quarterback news, supporting the UCLA side.
    • Oregon owns the stronger team-grade profile: 94.4 overall and 84.9 pass-rush grade versus UCLA's 92.1 and 71.8.
  2. UCLA Bruins spread +112 models agree
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • UCLA is 4-0 with a +26.0 recent scoring margin; Oregon is 3-1 at +24.2, making 11 points more than recent separation.
    • QB gate cleared: Nico Iamaleava led UCLA’s latest pass attempts; Dylan Raiola was named Oregon’s starter after Dante Moore was ruled out.
    • Most likely loss: Oregon’s home-field advantage and 84.7 PFF passing grade turn its quarterback edge into a 14-plus-point win.
    Key Number CFB
    • UCLA is 4-0 with 0.291 offensive EPA/play and 50.9% success, compared with Oregon's 0.264 and 49.4%.
    • UCLA's 30.81-second pace and +0.027 PROE support a lower-possession underdog script; the +11 number stays directionally coherent with Oregon's -380 moneyline.
    • Most likely loss: Oregon wins by 12 or more behind home field and a defense graded 90.6 versus UCLA's 88.1.
  3. Game total over 58.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Key Number CFB
    Why 2 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • PWP grade 72/100: current scoring/defense blend projects 67.1 points before availability adjustment.
    • Availability-adjusted projection near 63, still 7.7% above the 58.5 posted line.
    • UCLA cleared 58.5 in only 4 of its last 10; the recent-trend gate is mixed.
    Key Number CFB
    • CFB histogram: exactly 58 occurred 275 of 10,371 regular/postseason games, or 2.652%.
    • UCLA averages +0.291 EPA/play and Oregon +0.264; Oregon’s 19.22-second pace adds possession upside.
    • Most likely loss: one offense stalls in the red zone and the game finishes at 58 or fewer.
  4. Over 58.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
  5. Dierre Hill Jr. under 2.5 receptions
    +135%Won

    Taken at +135 on BetOnline

    Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10.7% typed-target share (4/29, 3/43, 4/35) over the last three games; 26.4% share CV is below the 35% stability gate.
    • Receptions were 2, 3, 4 while receiving yards jumped 8, 50, 105; yards per target exploded 2.0 to 16.7 to 26.3 without a larger role.
    • PFF route rates were 82.6%, 80.0%, and 89.5% in the populated current-season games, confirming recurring opportunity rather than a one-game fluke.
    • Most likely loss: Oregon redirects more receiving work to Hill after Jeremiah McClellan and Jack Ressler are out, and three targets become three-plus catches.
  6. Total points over 58.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both starting quarterbacks cleared the personnel gate: latest boxes led by Nico Iamaleava and Dylan Raiola; Oct. 9 coverage expects both, while Moore is officially out.
    • PFF offense grades are 82.8 Oregon and 76.2 UCLA; the combined efficiency and explosive-play profile supports a total above the posted rung.
    • Most likely loss: Oregon's -0.0363 defensive EPA allowed per play and UCLA's slower pace produce a 34-17 type game.
Show all 17 picks
  1. 1st-quarter total over 10.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Four-game full-game points-per-drive averages are 3.66 for Oregon and 3.20 for UCLA; the opening-script projection is about 14.5 first-quarter points.
    • First-half EPA/play is positive for both teams: Oregon +0.213 and UCLA +0.220.
    • A first quarter is roughly five possessions per team and one turnover, sack or missed kick can erase several points of modeled edge.
  2. UCLA Bruins 1st-half winnerLong shot
    +317%Won

    Taken at 24¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • UCLA's last four first-half EPA/play averages +0.220, narrowly above Oregon's +0.213.
    • UCLA's first-half explosive-play rate is 15.5%, versus Oregon's 12.0%.
    • First-half success rates are close: UCLA 49.3%, Oregon 50.4%; the script matchup is much tighter than the full-game price.
    • Oregon is at home and the broader market makes the Ducks roughly a 70% first-half outcome.
  3. Oregon Ducks −10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model margin is 12.7 after a conservative 2-point adjustment for Oregon's quarterback loss.
    • Oregon allows -0.036 EPA/play this season versus UCLA's -0.0045; Oregon also leads 3.66 to 3.20 points per drive.
    • Dylan Raiola posted 289 yards and 2 TDs in his latest game, reducing the Dante Moore absence adjustment.
    • Dante Moore is officially out, alongside multiple Oregon WR/RB/OL absences; Raiola's full-game sample remains limited.
  4. under 60.5 total points
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 25 exact-total sample: 60 occurred 105 times, or 1.012%.
    • ProphetX prices under 60.5 at -140 versus the inferior under 60 at -150.
    • This is not a projection claim: totals above 60.5 still lose the ticket.
  5. Oregon Ducks first-half spread NO 6.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle full-game Oregon -10.5 anchors a first-half mean near +5.25.
    • 2,571 completed 2024, 26 CFB finals produce SD_full 15.72; sqrt-half scaling gives SD_1H 11.11, not 7.86.
    • First-half margins are unobserved; normal additive-variance scaling is structural, not directly backtested.
  6. Wayne Knight over 69.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10 straight over 69.5 in his last 10 official appearances.
    • 2026 output: 111.3 rushing yards per game across four UCLA appearances.
    • Oregon's 2026 defense has allowed -0.0448 EPA per play, a difficult matchup.
  7. Game first-half total under 30.5 points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 weeks 1-4 pace: UCLA 30.81 sec/play; Oregon clean pace 24.08 after excluding its 4.64-second outlier; blend 27.45.
    • The 8.1% uplift is matchup-specific: 0.5 × mean PROE 10.0% + 0.2 × mean explosive rate 15.3%; no weather possession cut because gust/precipitation are null.
    • Derived same-rung reference, not an independent first-half sharp quote; venue-only reference caps this at LEAN.
  8. UCLA Bruins spread +10
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • UCLA's current-season offense is +0.292 EPA/play with a 51.6% success rate, versus Oregon's +0.264 and 49.4%.
    • UCLA is 4-0 with a +26.0 recent scoring margin; Oregon is 3-1 at +24.2, while UCLA allows 18.75 points per game versus Oregon's 23.25.
    • The 10-point cushion fits the directional read: UCLA's stronger early profile makes a one-score game more likely than the market's large-favorite framing.
    • Most likely loss: Oregon's home-field advantage and superior defense turn UCLA's early efficiency into a 11-point-or-more defeat.
  9. Total Points over 57.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 FBS-only sample: UCLA averages 44.75 points across 4 games and Oregon 35.33 across 3, an 80.1-point raw baseline.
    • UCLA offense averages 50.5% success and 15.4% explosiveness; Oregon defense has allowed +0.175 EPA/play across its 3 FBS games.
    • Oregon still brings 14.8% explosiveness and +0.264 offensive EPA/play in 4 current-season games, preserving a second scoring path.
    • Most likely loss: UCLA's strong defense suppresses Raiola's first full start and Oregon finishes below 28, leaving the total at 57 or lower.
  10. Oregon Ducks spread −10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the current CFB predictor projects Oregon by 14.67 points, 4.17 above the -10.5 rung.
    • Personnel is current: OregonLive confirms Dylan Raiola starts with Dante Moore sidelined; a fresh game report lists Nico Iamaleava starting for UCLA.
    • the edge is the predictor’s margin projection, not a sportsbook or payout argument.
    • Likeliest loss path: Oregon wins but UCLA’s unbeaten 4-0 team stays within 10 points.
  11. UCLA Bruins to winLong shot
    +355%Won

    Taken at 22¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, UCLA is 4-0 with a +26.0 recent scoring margin, while Oregon is 3-1 at +24.2, much closer than the 79% Oregon market implies.
    • UCLA's current-season offense averages about +0.288 EPA/play across four games, slightly above Oregon's roughly +0.264; the market appears anchored to Oregon's stronger 2025 profile.
    • Oregon's only 2026 road game was a 39-31 loss; UCLA's unbeaten start supplies a specific matchup-level upset path despite Autzen home field.
    • Oregon's home profile includes an 84-0 demolition, and its defense may be materially better than UCLA's early schedule indicates.

Questions

Who won UCLA vs. Oregon?

The UCLA won 17–15 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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