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Air Force vs. Northern IllinoisFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalHuskie Stadium
Air Force3–1
28–7Final
Northern Illinois0–4
Score by period
Team1234T
AF7714028
NIU07007

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 48.5 −110

Why Tempo Gap likes it: Possession count load-bearing: project Air Force 10.8 drives, NIU 11.0, 21.8 total; approximately 142 plays.

Tempo GapUp 5% return this season · 85 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 7-4 on this game · +22% return

  1. Game total under 48.52 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    2 modelsTempo Gap, CFB HunterV2
    Why 2 models like it
    Tempo Gap
    • Possession count load-bearing: project Air Force 10.8 drives, NIU 11.0, 21.8 total; approximately 142 plays.
    • Garbage-time flag: Air Force-Duquesne and NIU blowouts produced scoring above 95/5 win probability, inflating current PPD samples.
    CFB HunterV2
    • Model 57% versus 51% implied at the Kalshi NO cost (1.96x multiplier): +6 probability points.
    • Current-season scoring averages combine to 42.75 points: Air Force 29.0 scored and Northern Illinois 13.75.
    • Northern Illinois has allowed 36.25 points per game, so its defensive leakage can produce a backdoor over.
  2. Northern Illinois +7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Air Force is 3-1, but Northern Illinois is 0-4 and the market has already made the Falcons a 7.5-point favorite.
    • Air Force has materially better 2026 EPA and team-grade inputs, so a decisive Falcons win can beat the spread.
  3. Game total under 48.5 points
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Efficiency gap: Air Force +0.181 offensive EPA/play and 2.73 points/drive; NIU allows +0.169 defensive EPA/play.
    • Both starting quarterbacks are listed: Liam Szarka for Air Force and Taron Dickens for NIU.
    • Slow Air Force pace (29.98 seconds/play), run-heavy profile, and a 45.5-point fair total create a 3-point cushion.
    • Biggest risk: NIU's pass-heavy offense plays 26.38 seconds/play and can create explosive scoring against Air Force.
  4. Air Force Falcons first-half spread NO 2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2,619 CFB finals from 2024, 26: SD_full 15.69; square-root scaling gives SD_1H 11.10, not a naively halved 7.85.
    • Air Force -7.5 full-game at Pinnacle, scaled with a first-half factor, gives μ_1H ≈ +4.0.
    • College key-number mass is computed: margins 3, 7, and 10 occur 227, 189, and 107 times; EDGE CLASS: PROJECTION.
    • The 3-point mass is directly adverse to NO at 2.5; full-game key-number mass is not first-half calibrated.
  5. Air Force Falcons −7.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Air Force is +0.181 offensive EPA/play with a 0.490 success rate; NIU is -0.068 EPA/play with a 0.402 success rate.
    • Air Force averages 2.73 points/drive and 29.0 points per game; NIU has allowed 36.25 points per game through four games.
    • Szarka and Dickens are both listed as the game starters; the quarterback edge is continuity for Air Force's option attack rather than a replacement scenario.
    • Biggest risk: NIU has a two-week rest advantage versus Air Force's seven days, which can improve its defensive preparation.
  6. Air Force Falcons 1st-half winner
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4-game profile: Air Force averages 74.8 plays, 49.0% success, and +0.180 offensive EPA/play.
    • Air Force averages 2.73 points per drive versus Northern Illinois' 1.30; NIU's defense allows +0.170 EPA/play.
    • Air Force's 29.98-second pace and NIU's 26.38-second pace support enough opening possessions for the stronger offense to separate.
    • Medders has not driven this offense as the established 2026 starter; the replacement-QB uncertainty is the main model risk.
Show all 10 picks
  1. Game first-half total under 19.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION edge class: Weeks 1-5 averages were AF 74.8 plays at 30.0 sec/play and NIU 67.8 at 26.4; blended pace is 28.2 sec/play.
    • Observed first-half PPD was AF 2.68 and NIU 2.04; blended 2.36. PROE (-19.9% and +18.1%) offsets, with explosive rates 10.0% and 10.9%.
    • Live state: 27 plays, five drives, and 7 points at 11:02 of Q2. About 3.8 drives remain: 7 + 3.8×2.36 projects roughly 16.0 first-half points.
    • Air Force beat reports called Evan Medders likely to start; the live box shows six carries but no Air Force pass attempt, so the QB transition remains imperfectly confirmed.
  2. Air Force Falcons spread −7
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Air Force averages +0.180 EPA/play on offense versus Northern Illinois at -0.067 through four games.
    • Air Force averages 29.0 points and allows 20.0; Northern Illinois averages 13.75 and allows 36.25.
    • Most likely loss: Air Force wins by 1-6, as the Falcons' 14-point performance against Navy shows limited offensive margin.
  3. Game total under 48
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Air Force has scored 34, 32, 36, 14; NIU has scored 0, 24, 17, 14 through five weeks, pointing to a low-40s game.
    • Fox Sports' live preview notes NIU has only 1,087 yards and six offensive touchdowns, both near the bottom of Division I. Reference is directional only, not same-line pricing.
    • The most likely loss is NIU's weak offense generating short fields or explosive scores against Air Force's uneven defense.
  4. Northern Illinois Huskies spread +7
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Air Force starter Liam Szarka is out for the season; Evan Medders steps in, a downgrade the 7-point number may not fully reflect.
    • Air Force's current-season FBS sample is only two games, so its broader efficiency profile is inflated by FCS opponents.
    • Home NIU gets the full +7 in a matchup where Air Force's quarterback change widens the variance around the favorite's margin.
    • NIU's FBS offense averages -0.122 EPA/play, while Air Force averages +0.097 in its two-game FBS sample.

Questions

Who won Air Force vs. Northern Illinois?

The Air Force won 28–7 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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