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Columbia vs. MaristFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalTenney Stadium at Leonidoff Field
Columbia2–1
41–28Final
Marist3–2
Score by period
Team1234T
COLU71402041
MARI0147728

Top model pick, graded

Won

Columbia Lions spread −3.5 52¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 2-9 on this game · −64% return

  1. Marist Red Foxes to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +147 on DraftKings

    3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, CFB HunterV2 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Picks With Pink Grading System
    • Marist's latest two charted games: +0.216 offensive EPA/play and -0.141 defensive EPA/play allowed.
    • Marist owns an 89.6 team grade and 89.6 defense grade versus Columbia's 78.7 and 73.8.
    • Advanced EPA sample covers only two charted games per team; the projection is materially sample-sensitive.
    CFB HunterV2
    • Model gives Marist a 43% win probability versus the 36.5% contract price, a 6.5-point gross edge.
    • Marist's current-season scoring margin is +10.6 per game; Columbia's is -6.3.
    • The model still makes Marist a minority-probability winner; one turnover or late-game possession can erase the edge.
    Long Way Home
    • Marist averages +0.216 offensive EPA/play versus Columbia's +0.006 in the verified 2026 sample.
    • Most likely loss: Columbia's stronger underlying quality, hidden by only two games of current-season data, wins comfortably.
  2. Columbia Lions spread −3.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  3. Over 43.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Power total 45.6 points; model over probability 53.0% versus a 50.0% five-book devigged reference.
    • Current-season scoring inputs: Marist averages 25.4 scored/14.8 allowed; Columbia 22.3/28.7.
    • Two-game efficiency sample favors a higher total: Marist +0.2159 offensive EPA/play and Columbia +0.2655 defensive EPA allowed.
    • Most likely loss: Columbia's offense stalls against Marist's defense and the game stays under 43.5.
  4. Marist Red Foxes spread +6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model makes Marist +6.5 a 68% outcome versus the 57.5% contract price.
    • Marist allows 14.8 points per game; Columbia allows 28.7 through the current season.
    • Advanced sample favors Marist: +0.216 offensive EPA/play and -0.168 defensive EPA/play allowed versus Columbia's +0.013 and +0.266.
    • Only two charted 2026 games per team make the EPA sample thin.
  5. Marist +3 spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Marist +3 is 46.08c (+117) versus Marist +3.5 at 52.38c (-110).
    • Columbia by 4 or more loses the +3 ticket; only the exact 3-point margin refunds it.
  6. Marist Red Foxes spread −1
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The -1 contract is a subset of a Marist ML win, making that 14.88-point gap structurally inconsistent.
    • Supporting projection: Marist's 2026 offense EPA/play is +0.216 and defense allowed is -0.168 over two charted games.
    • PFF's current card gives Marist an 89.6 defense grade versus Columbia's 73.8; Marist is home.
    • Marist -1 loses on any Columbia win and pushes if Marist wins by exactly one.
Show all 9 picks
  1. Game total under 43.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Marist averaged +0.216 offensive EPA/play and -0.168 defensive EPA allowed; Columbia posted +0.014 and +0.266.
    • Simple scoring projection is 12 Columbia plus 30.5 Marist; efficiency adjustment makes my fair total 41.5.
    • Both teams last played October 3, giving six days’ rest; no short-rest disadvantage.
    • Marist averaged 35 points while Columbia allowed 26; one efficient home performance can clear 43.5.
  2. Marist Red Foxes win 1st Half
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Marist averaged 0.216 offensive EPA/play and 2.88 points/drive across two 2026 games; Columbia averaged 0.006 and 1.48.
    • Marist’s sampled defense allowed -0.168 EPA/play, versus Columbia allowing +0.266.
    • Three-way Kalshi prices devig to roughly 38.8% Marist; my low-coverage script estimate is about 49%, a 10-point disagreement.
    • Only two 2026 games per team; opponent quality is not adjusted and the coverage tier is low.
  3. Marist Red Foxes spread +5.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quotes Marist +5.5 at 59.35¢ (-146) while its Marist +4.5 rung is 63.77¢ (-176), an illogical ladder inversion.
    • Marist's verified 2026 net EPA is +0.384/play (0.216 offense, -0.168 defense) versus Columbia's -0.261 (0.008, +0.269).
    • Marist averages 35.0 points for and 10.5 allowed across two games; Columbia averages 13.5 for and 26.0 allowed.
    • Most likely loss: Columbia's pass-heavy offense (62.4% pass rate) exploits Marist and wins by six or more.

Questions

Who won Columbia vs. Marist?

The Columbia won 41–28 on Friday, Oct 9, 2026.

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