Dartmouth vs. YaleFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalYale Bowl
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DART | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| YALE | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 28 |
Top model pick, graded
WonYale Bulldogs to win 67¢
Why D1 Winner likes it: Yale allowed +0.01 EPA/play in two charted games versus Dartmouth's +0.13.
D1 WinnerDown 8% this season · 237 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −42% return
- Dartmouth Big Green to win−100%Lost
Taken at 30¢ on Polymarket
2 modelsCFB Heater, CFB HunterV2Why 2 models like it
CFB Heater- Yale is still the market favorite near 70.5%; Dartmouth's season record is 1-2 versus Yale's 2-1.
CFB HunterV2- Model Dartmouth win probability 35% versus 32% implied by the live 32¢ contract: +3 points.
- Dartmouth's offense is competitive with Yale's by current EPA/play, 0.17 versus 0.17, despite the underdog price.
- Yale's home-field advantage and defense EPA allowed of 0.01 per play support its favorite status.
- Yale Bulldogs to win+49%Won
Taken at 67¢ on Polymarket US
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Yale allowed +0.01 EPA/play in two charted games versus Dartmouth's +0.13.
- Yale's special-teams grade is 85.8 versus Dartmouth's 75.5, with Yale at home.
- Yale confirmed Dante Reno after his 298-yard, four-touchdown game; Dartmouth's Grayson Saunier is confirmed.
- Only two charted advanced games per team; Bayesian shrinkage leaves substantial model uncertainty.
- Dartmouth Big Green spread +7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model cover probability 59% versus 51% market-implied price: +8 points.
- Dartmouth current-season offense EPA/play is 0.17 versus Yale's 0.17; success rates are nearly identical, 47.5% versus 48.2%.
- Dartmouth's latest PFF defense grade is 83.7 versus Yale's 79.6, reducing the expected matchup gap.
- Only two current-season games have charted EPA, so the model distribution is wide.
- Game total under 53.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model under probability 54% versus 51% implied by the live 51¢ contract: +3 points.
- Official previews put the teams' scoring averages at roughly 31.5 Yale and 20.7 Dartmouth, a 52.2-point combined baseline.
- Yale's current defensive EPA allowed is only 0.01 per play, while Dartmouth's offense has a 0.38 pass-play rate and slower 3.12-second pace.
- The two teams' raw current scoring totals imply approximately 54 points, close to or above the market line.
- Dartmouth Big Green spread +6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- a two-game offense-defense blend projects Yale by roughly 1-3 points, below the 6.5-point spread.
- Yale's 41-24 Merrimack result inflates its recent margin, while Dartmouth just held Pennsylvania to 10 points in its latest game.
- Cross-blended scoring inputs are about 26.0 Dartmouth points and 26.75 Yale points before home-field adjustment.
- Most likely loss: Yale's home offense converts the matchup edge into a seven-point-or-larger win.
Questions
Who won Dartmouth vs. Yale?
Yale won 28-7 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.