Princeton vs. WagnerFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalHameline Field at Wagner College Stadium
Princeton2–1
28–13Final
Wagner1–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRIN | 7 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 28 |
| WAGN | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
Top model pick, graded
WonPrinceton Tigers to win 92¢
Why CFB Heater likes it: Princeton enters 2-1 with a 71-28 scoring margin; Wagner is 1-4 and has allowed 216 points.
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-3 on this game · −12% return
- Princeton Tigers to win+9%Won
Taken at 92¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Princeton enters 2-1 with a 71-28 scoring margin; Wagner is 1-4 and has allowed 216 points.
- This is a 91.5% contract: a rare upset loses the full position, while the upside is only 8.5¢ before fees.
- Princeton Tigers −24.5−100%Lost
Taken at −119 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Princeton leads the matchup sample by +0.458 EPA/play: +0.304 offense versus Wagner's +0.493 defensive EPA allowed.
- Princeton's 52.6% offensive success and 14.6% explosive rate attack a Wagner defense allowing 60.3 points per game.
- Official Princeton game notes list freshman Wyatt Becker atop the QB depth chart; Fox's fresh game page lists Becker and Benjamin Newman as starters.
- Princeton has only two 2026 efficiency games, while Wagner's schedule and opponent quality create noisy small-sample comparisons.
- Princeton Tigers win by over 22.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model probability 65% versus Kalshi's 60¢ implied 60%; +5 percentage points.
- Princeton's last two wins were by 22 and 28, while Wagner has allowed 216 points in five games.
- Current-season EPA gap is substantial: Princeton offense +0.3076/play versus Wagner -0.2569; Wagner defense allows +0.4224/play.
- Princeton's advanced sample is only two charted 2026 games, so opponent adjustment remains uncertain.
- Game total over 43.5−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The matchup pairs Princeton's +0.304 offensive EPA/play with Wagner's +0.493 defensive EPA/play allowed.
- Princeton posted a 14.6% explosive-play rate against a Wagner defense that has struggled to prevent efficient gains.
- Both teams are on seven days' rest; north wind around 6 mph and no stated precipitation should not suppress scoring.
- Wagner averages only 8.0 points and Princeton allows 3.5, making a one-sided 35-0 or 38-3 script a serious under path.
- Game total under 43.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- projected score Princeton 32, Wagner 8 (40 total), 3.5 below the 43.5 line.
- Princeton has allowed 3.5 points per game across its two 2026 games; Wagner has scored 8.0 per game across three.
- Reference label: SHARP REFERENCE; this is a projection edge, not a payout-size argument.
- Most likely ticket loss: Princeton scores 44 or more by itself, or Wagner adds short-field points against a mismatch.
- Wagner Seahawks spread +23+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- The +23 rung is the clear outlier within ProphetX's own spread ladder; this is a pricing-mismatch claim, not a payout-size claim.
- Pinnacle has Wagner +25 at +101, supporting the underdog side even though it is not the same line.
- Most likely loss: Princeton's defense, which has allowed 3.5 points per game in two 2026 games, turns Wagner's weak offense into a 24-plus-point win.
Questions
Who won Princeton vs. Wagner?
The Princeton won 28–13 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.