Richmond vs. FordhamFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalMoglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RICH | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| FORD | 7 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 20 |
Top model pick, graded
WonFordham Rams +9.5 −110
Why Kickoff Ledger likes it: Richmond averages -0.143 offensive EPA/play and 45.8% success; Fordham is -0.284 and 38.7%, not a nine-point efficiency gap.
Kickoff LedgerDown 6% this season · 292 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-4 on this game · −34% return
- Richmond Spiders to win−100%Lost
Taken at −355 on FanDuel
3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Heater Two-Hour +1Why 3 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- 84% blended win projection from current record, form, EPA and team-grade gap.
- Richmond is 5-1 this season; Fordham is 1-5.
- Richmond's recent EPA sample is only four charted games and includes a 0-73 loss.
Heater Two-Hour- Both positions are recent, non-dust holdings relative to their ticket medians, and agree on the same liquid moneyline.
- No independent team model or confirmed availability adjustment supports the signal; Richmond can simply lose.
Long Way Home- Richmond's recent form is 5-1 with a -4.8 average margin; Fordham is 1-5 at -18.3.
- Current-season advanced rows show Richmond at 45.4% success and -0.143 offensive EPA/play, versus Fordham at 38.4% and -0.283.
- Richmond's 0-73 result shows extreme downside variance, while Fordham's sampled defensive EPA allowed is slightly better.
- Fordham Rams +9.5+91%Won
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Richmond averages -0.143 offensive EPA/play and 45.8% success; Fordham is -0.284 and 38.7%, not a nine-point efficiency gap.
- Simple offense-defense scoring blend makes Richmond roughly a 6.5-point favorite; FanDuel offers Fordham +9.5 at -110.
- Both teams played October 3, giving each seven days’ rest; no schedule disadvantage is embedded in the fair line.
- Fordham has scored only 23 points in four games; turnovers or short fields could produce a Richmond margin spike.
- Richmond Spiders −9.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Richmond's 2026 PFF team grade is 74.6 versus Fordham's 60.1.
- Recent offense EPA/play: Richmond -0.1595 versus Fordham -0.2614; success rates are 43.9% versus 38.6%.
- Richmond is 5-1; Fordham is 1-5 with a -18.3 average margin through six games.
- Richmond's current-season team-adv sample is only three games, while Fordham's is four.
- Game total under 44.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Both offenses are negative in current-season EPA/play: Fordham -0.283 and Richmond -0.127; Fordham averages only 5.75 points.
- Richmond scored 0 in one of three games, Fordham scored 0 in two of four, and both teams' explosive rates are below 10%.
- An outlier-trimmed cross-blend, excluding Richmond's 73-point NC State game and Fordham's 45-point Coastal Carolina game, projects roughly 39 points, 5.5 below 44.5.
- Most likely loss: Richmond reproduces its 40-point Lafayette performance while Fordham's defense again gives up 30-plus, pushing the game over 44.5.
Questions
Who won Richmond vs. Fordham?
The Fordham won 20–14 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.