Drake vs. ValparaisoFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBrown Field
Drake2–3
13–21Final
Valparaiso2–3
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DRAK | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| VALP | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
Top model pick, graded
WonValparaiso Beacons spread +10.5 51¢
CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-2 on this game · +85% return
- Valparaiso Beacons spread +10.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days - Game total under 55.5+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Their positions are meaningful: 425.84 and 303.2 contracts, with average entries of 46.35¢ and 46.82¢.
- Polymarket US Under costs 44¢, 2.6¢ below their average entry and within the three-cent entry band.
- Both positions are currently underwater around 44.5¢; the market may be correctly fading the signal.
- Valparaiso Beacons +8.5+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Valparaiso's 78.3 defensive PFF grade and home venue support a competitive margin.
- Drake's two recent wins were by 8 and 19 points, offering less cushion than the market requires.
- Drake's current charted offense leads this matchup in EPA per play, success rate, and explosiveness.
- Valparaiso Beacons to win+355%Won
Taken at 22¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Valparaiso owns an 84.4 PFF overall grade versus Drake's 71.2, including a 78.3 defensive grade.
- Five-game scoring margin favors Valparaiso +8.6 per game versus Drake -10.6.
- Home field and two teams at 2-3 make the 4.55x implied payout attractive.
- Only two games have advanced EPA charting for each team; current-season sample is thin.
- Game total under 54+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under 54 wins at 53 or fewer, pushes at exactly 54, and loses only at 55 or more; under 53.5 loses at 54.
- 193 of 10,371 completed 2014, 25 CFB games totaled exactly 54: 1.861% empirical push probability.
- Under 54 still loses at 55 or more; the 1.861% exact-54 mass is a push, not a win.
- Game total over 53.5−100%Lost
Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Drake's two charted games average 40.5 points scored, with 3.66 points per drive and 60.5% pass rate.
- Valparaiso averages 31.6 points scored across five games and just produced 37 points.
- Brown Field forecast is mild: 74 degrees and 8 mph wind, with no weather downgrade.
- Valparaiso's defense has allowed only 3 points in its latest game and carries a -0.035 EPA-per-play mark.
Show all 7 picks
- Drake Bulldogs spread −10.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Drake's last two 2026 games produced +0.332 and +0.337 offensive EPA/play with 15.1% and 17.0% explosive rates.
- Valparaiso's last two rows show only +0.0577 and -0.0471 offensive EPA/play, with 7.6% and 6.2% explosive rates.
- Edge class: PROJECTION. Reference label: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE. Flat stake is 1 unit.
- Most likely loss: Valparaiso keeps Drake's margin to 10 or fewer through its strong recent defensive showing and home field.
Questions
Who won Drake vs. Valparaiso?
The Valparaiso won 21–13 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.