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Iowa vs. WashingtonFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalHusky Stadium
Iowa4–1
41–24Final
Washington3–2
Score by period
Team1234T
IOWA13147741
WASH0315624

Top model pick, graded

Won

Iowa Hawkeyes −3.5 +200

Why CFB Moonshot Singles likes it: Iowa’s L5 defense allowed -0.1262 EPA/play; Washington’s L5 offense produced +0.1398 EPA/play.

CFB Moonshot SinglesDown 10% this season · 209 picksLongshots
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How the picks did

Models went 16-8 on this game · +40% return

  1. Iowa Hawkeyes to win4 models agree
    +130%Won

    Taken at +130 on DraftKings

    4 modelsBrewing CFB Moneylines, CFB HunterV2 +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Brewing CFB Moneylines
    • Iowa's last-five scoring margin is +16.4 per game versus Washington's +8.2.
    • Iowa's 2026 team grade is 91.8 versus Washington's 89.7, with nearly identical defense grades.
    • Jeremy Hecklinski is the confirmed starter after Hank Brown's shoulder issue; Hecklinski has only 32 attempts this season.
    CFB HunterV2
    • Iowa is 4-1 with a +82 point differential; Washington is 3-2 with +41.
    • Iowa quarterback Hank Brown is an official game-time decision at 4:00 PM PT; the baseline may overstate Iowa if he sits.
    ProphetX Pairs
    • Iowa is 4-1 over its last five with +16.4 average margin; Washington is 3-2 with +8.2.
    • Iowa's FBS-only success rate is .448 versus Washington's .427 across four games each.
    • The predictor is timestamped 12:02 AM, before the later report confirming Iowa's first-time starter Jeremy Hecklinski.
    Long Way Home
    • INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, ProphetX prices Iowa -3.5 at -235 (70.15¢), while the Iowa moneyline contract now grades at 59.02¢; covering -3.5 is a subset of winning.
    • Iowa leads 6-0 at 5:39 of Q1; the live warehouse shows Iowa +0.181 EPA/play and 40.0% success versus Washington -0.461 and 16.7%.
    • Most likely loss: Washington's offense recovers from its poor opening efficiency and wins outright at home.
  2. Iowa Hawkeyes −3.5Long shotHigh conviction
    +200%Won

    Taken at +200 on DraftKings

    CFB Moonshot SinglesUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa’s L5 defense allowed -0.1262 EPA/play; Washington’s L5 offense produced +0.1398 EPA/play.
    • Estimated cover probability 45%; fair odds +122 versus +200 market price, implying 33.3%.
    • Iowa’s estimated cover rate is model-sensitive; a three-point win loses despite the matchup edge.
  3. Iowa Hawkeyes over 41.5 total
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both teams' last-five scoring averages imply 43.2 combined points; both offenses are positive in recent EPA/play.
    • Iowa QB Hank Brown is a game-time decision, creating material uncertainty for the offense.
  4. Over 41.5 total
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Possession convergence favors the Over: Iowa and Washington average 65 and 68 plays, 28.4 and 27.4 seconds per play, with 2.08 and 2.26 points per drive; combined explosive rate is 14.2%.
    • Most likely loss: one offense stalls on early downs or turnovers, producing a sub-42-point game despite the modest model edge.
  5. Iowa Hawkeyes spread +2.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Vig Gap CFBNew model
    Why it likes it
    • The Polymarket US contract is live, quoted, and accepting orders; its exact full-game Iowa +2.5 ladder rung is identified by the contract slug.
    • Washington winning by 3 or more points is the direct loss path; a late score or overtime margin can decide a 2.5-point ticket.
  6. Iowa Hawkeyes under 41.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    Short WeekDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa offense is +0.067 EPA/play; Washington defense allows -0.084 EPA/play through five games.
    • Washington offense is +0.124 EPA/play against Iowa's -0.125 defensive EPA/play allowed; both efficiency profiles support a low total.
    • Hank Brown's shoulder sprain is resolved into a Jeremy Hecklinski start, removing Iowa's starting-quarterback uncertainty.
    • Washington has a 15.2% explosive-play rate and can break the under with a few explosive passes.
Show all 21 picks
  1. Under 41.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model mean 40.3 points; 54.5% under 41.5 from a possession/efficiency distribution.
    • Current teams average 65 and 68 plays; pace is 28.44/27.11 seconds per play, supporting roughly 20, 21 combined possessions.
    • Adjusted current-season points per drive are 2.08 Iowa and 2.26 Washington; Iowa's confirmed QB change to Jeremy Hecklinski lowers the away-offense baseline.
    • Most likely loss: Washington's explosive rate and home-field efficiency create an early lead, forcing Iowa to abandon its lower-tempo approach.
  2. Iowa vs. Washington total under 41.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  3. Dezmen Roebuck under 63.5 receiving yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 70% under hit rate: 7 of his last 10 appearances stayed below 63.5 yards.
    • Iowa ranks 13th of 212 teams by current defensive EPA allowed (-0.1253 per play).
    • Model probability 66%; FanDuel -114 implies 53.3%, a 12.7-point value margin.
    • The 10-game sample spans two seasons and opponent quality is uneven.
  4. Washington Huskies to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −150 on FanDuel

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington's 2026 offense leads Iowa in EPA/play, 0.140 to 0.067, and explosive rate, 15.2% to 13.2%.
    • Washington's passing grade is 68.6 versus Iowa's 60.5; both defenses grade nearly identically at 90.1 and 90.2.
    • Multiple Oct. 9 reports citing ESPN say unproven Iowa backup Jeremy Hecklinski starts for injured Hank Brown.
    • Iowa's current defense is stronger by EPA allowed, -0.1253 versus Washington's -0.0656, and can keep this close.
  5. Iowa Hawkeyes +2.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Composite Grade 74/100; estimated Iowa cover probability 57% versus roughly 50% at +100.
    • Iowa is 3-2 ATS in 2026; Washington is 1-4 ATS, failing to cover four times as a favorite.
    • Iowa is 4-1 with a +82 scoring margin; Washington is 3-2 with a +41 margin.
    • Jeremy Hecklinski starts after only 5-for-5, 67-yard 2026 passing; inexperience could depress Iowa's offense.
  6. Over 7.5 first-quarter points
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Both teams averaged 3.0 first-quarter drives across five games, providing roughly six opening-quarter possessions.
    • Iowa had 8 first-quarter scoring drives in 15 games sampled; Washington had 6 in 15.
    • The raw first-quarter share of the 26.8-point first-half projection is roughly 12-13 points.
    • One missed field goal, explosive play, or empty red-zone trip can move this thin quarter by a touchdown.
  7. Over 20.5 first-half points
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game first-half drive averages are 6.4 for Iowa and 6.0 for Washington; their paces are 28.44 and 27.11 seconds per play.
    • Raw points-per-drive times those drive averages projects 26.8 first-half points before opponent and quarterback adjustments.
    • Washington’s +0.251 offensive-versus-opponent defensive EPA/play matchup can carry scoring after Iowa’s quarterback downgrade.
    • The five-game points-per-drive sample includes weaker opponents and may overstate production against this matchup.
  8. Washington Huskies win 1st Half
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington’s five-game matchup EPA differential is +0.251/play, versus Iowa’s +0.151/play.
    • Washington averaged 6.0 first-half drives and 2.26 points/drive across five games.
    • Iowa’s Jeremy Hecklinski start was confirmed pregame after Hank Brown’s AC-joint injury; Washington coverage identifies Demond Williams Jr. as its quarterback.
    • Washington’s official game page did not separately list a starter; the live beat report is the confirmation source.
  9. Game total over 44.5
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • At least two measures agree: over is thinner at quote, deeper behind it, and has more stacked levels.
    • The under depth and level fields were omitted by ProphetX; treating them as zero beyond the quote may overstate asymmetry.
  10. Iowa Hawkeyes @ Washington Huskies over 41.5 total points
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Book_levels are tied 3-3, so the third measure does not corroborate; the thin-plus-deep core pairing supplies two of three measures.
    • Book_levels tie 3-3; there is no distinct participant-count confirmation.
  11. Iowa Hawkeyes spread −6.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Iowa -6.5 wins if Iowa wins by exactly 7; adjacent Iowa -7 pushes at exactly 7.
    • ProphetX quoted Iowa -6.5 and Iowa -7 at the same -150 American price; the half-point contract strictly improves the 7-margin outcome.
    • A live Q1 market can reprice or suspend before the exchange order is actionable.
  12. Washington Huskies spread −3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington's 2026 efficiency averages +0.140 EPA/play offense and -0.066 defensive EPA allowed across five games.
    • Fresh web check reports Iowa will start Jeremy Hecklinski; Hank Brown is dealing with an upper-body injury.
    • Pinnacle's reference spread is Washington -3, supporting Washington as the projection direction.
    • Most likely loss: Washington wins by exactly 3, the key margin the -3.5 rung must survive.
  13. Total points under 42
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game 2026 averages are Iowa 28.44 seconds/play, 0.4775 success, 0.1325 explosive; Washington 27.11, 0.460, 0.152.
    • Defensive EPA allowed is negative for both: Iowa -0.1262 and Washington -0.0656 per play across five games.
    • Hank Brown led Iowa's last-game pass attempts (27), but live reporting confirms first-time starter Jeremy Hecklinski; the quarterback change supports Iowa scoring downside.
    • Most likely loss: Washington's explosive passing attack creates short fields and Iowa reaches 43-plus despite the backup quarterback.
  14. Iowa Hawkeyes spread +2
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • only four-game profile: Iowa has a .448 success rate versus Washington's .427; the model's Iowa edge survives the venue's +2 number.
    • Iowa's Jeremy Hecklinski is making his first expected start; ESPN reports Hank Brown is not expected to play except in an emergency.
  15. Game total under 40.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Seattle Times reports Iowa will start backup QB Jeremy Hecklinski after Hank Brown's throwing-shoulder AC-joint sprain.
    • Iowa averages only 0.067 EPA/play across five games; the late quarterback change adds downside to an already modest offense.
    • Pinnacle also posts under 40.5, at -107; ProphetX supplies a materially better price.
    • Most likely loss: Washington's explosive offense converts short fields or Iowa's defense gives up enough chunk plays to reach 41.

Questions

Who won Iowa vs. Washington?

The Iowa won 41–24 on Friday, Oct 9, 2026.

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