Houston vs. Kansas StateFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBill Snyder Family Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 7 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 35 |
| KSU | 3 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 16 |
Top model pick, graded
WonUnder 55 total 51¢
Why ProphetX CFB Lines likes it: 146.4 current combined plays and an adjusted 20.5-drive projection point to about 54.0 total points; possession count favors the Under.
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% this season · 286 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-13 on this game · −19% return
- Houston Cougars spread +2.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs- PFF’s current-season card favors Houston overall 93.1, 91.8 and offense 85.9, 78.4, including an 80.8, 69.3 passing-grade edge.
- Personnel gate cleared: Conner Weigman led Houston’s latest passing box with 33 attempts and is described as a starter in the official Houston preview; Avery Johnson led Kansas State with 50 and the official K-State preview calls his 31st start.
- Most likely loss: Kansas State’s stronger current defense (-0.1320 EPA allowed per play versus Houston’s -0.0492) and home field turn its efficiency into a multi-score margin.
ProphetX Pairs- Pinnacle context is Kansas State -2.5 at -108 / Houston +2.5 at -104; reference only, not the edge.
- K-State's FBS defensive EPA is -0.068 versus Houston's +0.101; the home defense is the clearest cover-loss path.
- Game total over 54.5−100%Lost
Taken at −118 on DraftKings
2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- Season offense/defense blend projects 58.3 points, a 7.0% edge above 54.5.
- The latest five priced totals produced three overs (60.0%), meeting the recent-form preference.
- Kansas State’s defense allowed only 61 points across its first four games, including 7 most recently.
Key Number CFB- Recent offensive EPA/play is +0.3283 Houston and +0.2746 Kansas State; points per drive are 3.933 and 3.208.
- Pace is moderate at 28.21 and 29.94 seconds per play, while both teams’ recent offensive profiles remain efficient.
- Most likely loss: Kansas State’s -0.1117 defensive EPA allowed suppresses Houston, leaving the game at 54 or fewer.
- Houston Cougars to win+117%Won
Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsLong Way Home, ProphetX PairsWhy 2 models like it
Long Way Home- Houston averaged 32.0 points across four non-FCS games; Kansas State averaged 30.3 across three FBS games.
- Houston posted positive offensive EPA/play in each sampled 2026 game; Kansas State allowed positive defensive EPA/play in its last two FBS games.
- Most likely loss: Kansas State's run game controls possession and Houston's offense stalls against the home favorite.
ProphetX Pairs- Houston leads 2026 off EPA/play 0.328 to 0.294, success rate 59.2% to 54.0%, and explosive rate 14.0% to 12.3%.
- Houston is 4-1 in the current-season slate context; Kansas State is 3-1. The offensive profile supports a higher Houston win chance than the market implies.
- Kansas State owns the stronger defense by EPA/play (-0.132 allowed versus Houston's -0.049), plus home field.
- Over 55.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Saturday BoardDown 15% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle exact 55.5 is Over -107 / Under -109; devigged Over probability is 49.8%.
- Most likely loss: one offense stalls and the game finishes at 55 points or fewer.
- Under 55 total+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 146.4 current combined plays and an adjusted 20.5-drive projection point to about 54.0 total points; possession count favors the Under.
- Conner Weigman and Avery Johnson are the game-preview expected starters and each led his team's latest passing row; lower adjusted points-per-drive after blowout discount supports convergence.
- Most likely loss: both efficient quarterbacks turn the projected 20.5 drives into multiple explosive touchdowns and the game clears 55.
- Amare Thomas over 4.5 receptions−100%Lost
Taken at −128 on FanDuel
Touch Share SaturdayDown 53% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 13/33, 7/22, and 14/38 typed targets give a 36.0% mean share and approximately 10% CV across the last 3 games.
- Yards per target fell 5.36 → 7.14 → 3.31 chronologically while target share finished 36.8% → 31.8% → 39.4%; usage held as efficiency cratered.
- Typed participant targets and PFF targets disagree materially: 13/7/14 versus 8/6/10 across the overlapping latest games.
Show all 19 picks
- Kansas State Wildcats spread −2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days - Kansas State Wildcats −2.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kansas State's defense allowed -0.132 EPA/play versus Houston's -0.051; the defensive matchup offsets Houston's modest offensive EPA edge.
- Season efficiency: K-State offense +0.294 EPA/play, 54.0% success; Houston +0.328 EPA/play, 59.2% success.
- K-State has roughly 14 days between games versus Houston's seven, with both starting quarterbacks confirmed: Avery Johnson and Conner Weigman.
- Houston's 59.2% offensive success rate is materially better than K-State's 54.0%, so the matchup can become a possession-by-possession shootout.
- Kansas State Wildcats to win−100%Lost
Taken at −122 on FanDuel
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Kansas State defense allowed -0.0859 EPA/play versus Houston's -0.0492; points allowed are 15.25 versus 19.8 per game.
- Avery Johnson's 60.8 average adjusted QBR leads Conner Weigman's 47.8; Johnson is the confirmed K-State starter.
- Kansas State is home and has 14 days' rest versus Houston's 7, supporting the situational family.
- Houston's offense leads the efficiency sample in EPA/play (.3283 to .3080) and success rate (.5923 to .5403).
- Total points over 48.5+43%Won
Taken at 70¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Opponent-defense read supports scoring: Kansas State allows -0.1314 EPA/play and Houston allows -0.0492; both offenses still bring strong efficiency into the matchup.
- Sportsbook reference sits 54.5, 55.5, while this alternate only requires 49 points; both named starters are confirmed by current boxes, official availability and official previews.
- The five- and four-game samples include FCS opponents, and explosive-play rates can regress against Big 12 competition.
- 1st-quarter total over 10.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Houston and Kansas State averaged 3.933 and 3.409 points per drive, respectively, across their recent games.
- Both offenses exceeded 0.30 EPA/play recently; Houston also posted 0.140 explosive rate.
- Using recent pace and roughly five-to-six first-half drives per team, the script projects above the 10.5-point Q1 rung.
- A first quarter has only a handful of possessions; one punt, turnover, or missed field goal can decide it.
- Houston Cougars 1st-half winner+133%Won
Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Houston averaged 0.328 offensive EPA/play and 59.2% success over five games.
- Kansas State averaged 0.308 offensive EPA/play and 54.0% success over four games.
- Houston's recent EPA matchup differential is stronger: 0.460 versus Kansas State's 0.358.
- The model uses only four Kansas State games and includes early-season opponent-quality noise.
- 1st-half total over 27.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Houston's last five games averaged 3.93 points per drive; Kansas State's last four averaged 3.41.
- Recent offensive success rates are 59.3% for Houston and 54.0% for Kansas State.
- Recent pace averages 28.1 and 29.6 seconds per play, supporting roughly 5, 5.5 first-half drives per team.
- Kansas State's recent defensive EPA allowed average is -0.132, which could suppress Houston's scoring rate.
- Game first-half total over 27.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Raw Kalshi yes_ask 0.49 is a probability fraction; the submitted contract price is 49 cents.
- Houston averaged 28.0 seconds per play; Kansas State 29.2, with 11.3 combined first-half drives projected.
- Weighted PROE 7.7% and explosive rate 13.0% produce a derived 10.4% scripted-start uplift; no flat halving.
- The 5% gust adjustment is modeled; stronger wind, stalled drives, or missed explosives push this under.
- Game total over 55.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Houston and Kansas State average 41.0 and 40.5 points per game this season.
- Offensive EPA/play is +0.328 Houston and +0.308 Kansas State; both profiles sustain scoring.
- Pass rates of 42.0% and 44.2% reduce the forecast impact of the strong wind on this total.
- 15, 20 mph wind with gusts to 30 mph can suppress explosive passes, field goals, and total scoring.
- Houston Cougars spread +3+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Houston's current-season offense leads Kansas State in EPA/play, 0.3286 to 0.3076, and success rate, 59.2% to 54.3%.
- PFF's latest 2026 card favors Houston overall, 93.1 to 91.8, and on offense, 85.9 to 78.4.
- QB gate cleared: Conner Weigman led Houston's latest box with 33 attempts; official K-State reporting confirms Avery Johnson's 31st start, while Houston's official preview identifies Weigman as its established starter.
- Most likely loss: Kansas State wins by 4 or more, with home field and its 80.3 pass-rush grade stressing Houston's 69.7 pass-rush-blocking grade.
- Total Points over 57.5−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- only 2026 scoring: Houston averages 32.0 and Kansas State 30.3 points across four and three FBS games, 62.3 combined.
- Tempo/explosiveness: Houston and Kansas State average 28.21/29.52 seconds per play, +5.8%/+8.8% PROE, 14.0%/12.3% explosive rate, and 59.2%/53.8% success.
- 2026 PFF offense grades are 85.9 Houston and 78.4 Kansas State; both defenses grade near 80, leaving multiple scoring paths.
- Most likely loss: Kansas State's quarterback uncertainty plus two strong defenses produces enough stalled drives to finish at 57 or fewer.
- Kansas State Wildcats first-half spread over 3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2,571 completed 2024, 26 CFB games give signed home-margin SD_full 22.93; square-root scaling gives SD_1H 16.22.
- current EPA/pace/points-per-drive inputs project Kansas State +3.9 full game, or approximately +2.0 first half.
- at the exact 3.5 rung, normal P(Kansas State first-half margin >3.5) is 46.3% versus 40¢.
- Only four Kansas State and five Houston 2026 games inform the matchup; opponent adjustment is thin.
- Avery Johnson under 225.5 passing yards+88%Won
Taken at −114 on FanDuel
Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 8 of his last 10 appearances stayed under 225.5 passing yards.
- 2026 average is 224.75 passing yards across four games, nearly identical to the line.
- FanDuel -114 implies 53.3%; model probability is 63%, clearing the 4-point value gate.
- Houston allowed 256.4 pass yards per game, 206th in the current 260-team table.
Questions
Who won Houston vs. Kansas State?
The Houston won 35–16 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.