Get app

Wake Forest vs. NC StateFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCarter-Finley Stadium
Wake Forest4–1
38–14Final
NC State3–2
Score by period
Team1234T
WAKE7321738
NCSU770014

Top model pick, graded

Won

Wake Forest Demon Deacons spread −3.5 50¢

Why Saturday Board likes it: Wake averages 0.281 EPA/play, 3.44 PPD and 14.8% explosive rate versus NC State's 0.225, 3.03 and 13.4%.

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 11-10 on this game · +3% return

  1. Wake Forest Demon Deacons spread −3.56 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    6 modelsSaturday Board, ProphetX CFB Lines +4
    Why 6 models like it
    Saturday Board
    • Wake averages 0.281 EPA/play, 3.44 PPD and 14.8% explosive rate versus NC State's 0.225, 3.03 and 13.4%.
    • Most likely loss: NC State wins outright or loses by three points or fewer, failing Wake -3.5.
    ProphetX CFB Lines
    • Load-bearing efficiency gap: five-game averages show Wake offense +0.281 EPA/play versus NC State +0.225, with a small net edge after defensive adjustment; 139.6 combined current plays supports convergence.
    • Most likely loss: NC State wins outright or loses by exactly 1-3, with the key-number-adjacent 3.5 costing the cover.
    CFB HunterV2
    • 57% model probability versus Kalshi's 50¢ implied 50%; +7 percentage points.
    • Wake Forest leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.281 to 0.225 and success rate 50.8% to 49.0%.
    • NC State's current-season defense has the better EPA allowed figure, 0.047 versus Wake Forest's 0.075.
    Key Number CFB
    • Adjacent Wake -4 (+111, 47.39¢) and -4.5 (+118, 45.87¢) preserve the same favorite direction.
    • QB gate passed: CJ Bailey and Gio Lopez led their latest pass-attempt rows; CBS says Wake leans on Lopez.
    • Most likely loss: Wake wins by 3 or fewer, cashing the moneyline but missing -3.5.
  2. NC State Wolfpack to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
  3. Deuce Lawrence over 44.5 rushing yards
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 of 5 current-season games cleared 44.5 yards: 52, 45, 27, 64, 47.
    • Lawrence has 235 yards on 47 carries through five games, averaging 5.0 yards per carry.
    • FanDuel's live player-rush board had the exact 44.5-yard line at -114.
    • The 27-yard game is a direct miss, and Lawrence's carries ranged from 6 to 13, leaving workload volatility.
  4. Under 57.5
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wake Forest and NC State average 26.5 and 28.7 seconds per play respectively; the slower combined pace supports fewer possessions.
    • The efficiency matchup, four potential NC State starting offensive-line absences, and weather produce a fair total near 54.5 versus the 57.5 market.
    • Forecast calls for a 40, 60% chance of rain/light showers and southwest wind at 12, 15 mph, pressuring deep passing and kicking.
    • Lopez threw for 265 yards and two touchdowns last week; Bailey threw for 373 yards and two touchdowns, so explosive passing can break the under.
  5. NC State Wolfpack +3.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −120 on FanDuel

    Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wake Forest has the better raw offense (+0.281 EPA/play vs NC State +0.217), but NC State's defense is stronger (+0.038 EPA/play allowed vs Wake +0.075).
    • Blending five-game efficiency and home field gives NC State about a 1.5-point favorite; the market makes Wake Forest -3.5, a roughly five-point fair-line gap.
    • Both teams have seven days of rest since their October 3 games.
    • NC State could be without four starting offensive linemen, creating pressure and short-field risks that erase the cushion.
  6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons to win
    +63%Won

    Taken at −160 on FanDuel

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wake leads current-season offense EPA/play .281 to .225, success rate .508 to .490, and explosive rate .148 to .134.
    • Official report lists NC State outs including Duke Scott, Yousef Mugharbil, Spike Sowells Jr., Tristan Teasdell and Yousaf Mugharbil.
    • Efficiency and QB/injury families converge on Wake; the market also makes Wake the 3.5-point road favorite.
    • NC State has the stronger current-season defensive EPA profile: .047 allowed per play versus Wake's .075.
Show all 16 picks
  1. Game total over 56.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PWP Grade 71/100: qualifying B-level edge with moderate risk.
    • Current-season scoring/allowance blend projects 61.0 points, 4.5 above 56.5 (8.0% projection edge).
    • Each team cleared a 56.5 combined-game total in 6 of its last 10 games.
    • The total moved down from 58.5, 59.5 to 56.5, 57.5, opposing the over thesis.
  2. Wake Forest Demon Deacons wins 1st Half
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wake averages 0.281 offensive EPA/play versus NC State allowing 0.047 defensive EPA/play.
    • Wake’s 0.508 success rate and 0.124 PROE exceed NC State’s 0.490 and 0.088.
    • Wake’s 26.5-second pace versus NC State’s 28.8 supports more opening-half possessions.
    • Five-game samples are small and opponent quality is not normalized.
  3. 1Q total under 12.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Matchup projection is 11.4 first-quarter points: Wake 4.5, NC State 6.9.
    • Wake averaged 7.2 first-quarter points scored and 4.8 allowed across five 2026 games.
    • NC State averaged 9.0 first-quarter points scored and only 1.8 allowed across five games.
    • A single explosive touchdown or short-field turnover can clear 12.5 quickly.
  4. Under 57.5 total points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Under 57.5 wins at exactly 57; Under 57 pushes at exactly 57.
    • The historical frequency is an all-CFB sample, not a matchup-specific projection.
  5. Wake Forest Demon Deacons first-half spread over 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season-to-date inputs project Wake's first-half mean at +2.5: +0.281 EPA/play and .148 explosive rate, offset by NC defense.
    • College margin mass is led by 3, 7, and 10; 6.5 sits just below the observed 7-point mass, supporting tail attention without importing NFL priors.
    • Live check is descriptive rather than an explicit official lineup announcement; plurality supports Gio Lopez and CJ Bailey, but a late scratch matters.
  6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons spread −4
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game sample: Wake posts +0.2815 EPA/play versus NC State’s +0.0471 defensive EPA allowed; NC State offense is +0.2252 versus Wake’s +0.0754 allowed.
    • Wake’s 26.54-second pace and 3.440 points per drive complement the EPA edge; sportsbook reference is Wake -3.5, so ProphetX’s -4 is a venue self-reference with plus money.
    • Most likely loss: NC State’s home-field edge and Bailey’s +0.2252 offensive EPA keep the game inside four despite Wake’s efficiency advantage.
  7. Total points over 56
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Possession profile supports scoring: offensive pace is 26.43 and 28.66 seconds per play, PROE is +0.1243 and +0.0885, and points per drive are 3.44 and 3.03.
    • Most likely loss: one offense stalls through turnovers or red-zone failure; the 26.43/28.66-second pace profile can still suppress possessions.
  8. Game over 27.5 first-half total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Five-game pace window: Wake averaged 65.8 plays at 26.43 seconds/play; NC State 73.8 at 28.66; blended pace is 69.8 plays and 27.54 seconds/play.
    • Drive arithmetic: observed averages are Wake 5.0 and NC State 6.2 first-half drives, versus 10.6 and 12.0 full-game drives; 11.2 ÷ 22.6 is a 49.6% drive share, not flat 50% scoring.
    • Full-game sharp pricing moved from 59.0 to 56.5 at DraftKings; that information may reflect matchup or availability factors this model misses.
  9. Total Points over 57
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
  10. Total Points over 55.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX's same-event team totals are NC State 27.5 and Wake Forest 30.5, summing to 58 points, 2.5 above the full-game rung.
    • five-game 2026 samples average 73.4 combined points; Wake averages 26.54 seconds/play and NC State 28.66.
    • Most likely loss: one or both red-zone attacks stall, leaving this rivalry at 55 points or fewer despite the ladder gap.

Questions

Who won Wake Forest vs. NC State?

The Wake Forest won 38–14 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.