South Carolina vs. FloridaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalBen Hill Griffin Stadium

South Carolina2–3

38–19Final

Florida4–1

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
SC	7	10	14	7	38
FLA	7	3	3	6	19

Top model pick, graded

Won

Florida Gators spread −10.5 51¢

Why Saturday Board likes it: Pinnacle -10.5 is -106/-106, devigged Florida cover 50.0%; modeled Florida margin +8.8 with SD about 17 gives NO fair 54.1%.

Saturday BoardUp 9% return this season · 185 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 13-13 on this game · +35% return

Florida Gators spread −10.53 models agree
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsSaturday Board, ProphetX Pairs +1
Why 3 models like it
Saturday Board
- Pinnacle -10.5 is -106/-106, devigged Florida cover 50.0%; modeled Florida margin +8.8 with SD about 17 gives NO fair 54.1%.
- RECOMMENDED Tier 2: 2026 current efficiency gap is modest, Florida's defensive volatility and the 10.5 key number support South Carolina's cover distribution.
- Most likely loss: Florida wins by 11 or more, making the FLA11 contract YES.
ProphetX Pairs
- Florida’s five-game 2026 profile leads South Carolina by +0.089 EPA/play on offense (+0.346 vs +0.257).
- Florida also leads success rate 54.1% to 49.9% and explosive rate 16.6% to 14.2%.
- Florida WR Vernell Brown III is officially questionable, which could reduce scoring efficiency.
Saturday Board Pairs
- PFF team card favors Florida 94.7, 80.3 overall and 89.3, 68.8 on offense; coverage is 81.1, 62.9.
- Most likely loss: South Carolina's +0.2568 offensive EPA/play and +0.0864 PROE attack Florida's +0.1608 defensive EPA allowed, creating a backdoor cover.
South Carolina Gamecocks to winLong shot3 models agree
+400%Won
Taken at 20¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsDrift, Heater Two-Hour +1
Why 3 models like it
Drift
- Florida: 0.346 off EPA, 0.541 success, 0.166 explosive; South Carolina: 0.257, 0.499, 0.142.
- South Carolina's defensive EPA allowed is 0.156 versus Florida's 0.161; five-game scoring margins are +10.8 and +19.0.
- Most likely loss: Florida's 0.346 offensive EPA and +19.0 scoring margin overwhelm South Carolina at home.
Heater Two-Hour
- Both positions are recent, one-sided, and meaningful: roughly $285 and $250 initial value.
- Florida is the market favorite near 80.5%; South Carolina’s underdog outcome has high variance.
Long Way Home
- PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, I estimate South Carolina wins 23%; ProphetX implies 20.2% at +395, while Pinnacle’s +382 supports the underdog price direction.
- Florida’s five-game margin is +19.0, but its average offensive EPA (+0.346) versus South Carolina (+0.257) and defensive EPA allowed (+0.161 versus +0.156) show a narrower underlying gap.
- Most likely loss: Florida’s offense rebounds from 17 points and its 46.2-point season scoring average creates an early two-score lead.
South Carolina Gamecocks spread +10.53 models agree
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
3 modelsDrift, Picks With Pink Grading System +1
Why 3 models like it
Drift
- Current-season net EPA: Florida .185 (.346-.161) versus South Carolina .101 (.257-.156); the matchup projects below 10.5 points.
- Scoring midpoint projects Florida 36.5 and South Carolina 32.4: a four-point baseline before home field, not an 11-point gap.
- Florida leads offense .346-.257 EPA/play, success .541-.499, and explosive rate .166-.142.
Picks With Pink Grading System
- 7-3 ATS record for South Carolina at +10.5 across its last 10 comparable games; 4-1 in 2026.
- Florida covered -10.5 in only 4 of its last 10 comparable games.
- Florida's 94.7 team grade and 90.1 defense grade materially exceed South Carolina's 80.3 and 77.1.
Long Way Home
- PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, my margin read centers Florida around 8, 9 points, below the 10.5 spread.
- Florida averages +19.0 margin; South Carolina averages +10.8, while SC’s defensive EPA allowed (.1465) is comparable to Florida’s (.1608).
- Most likely loss: Florida’s .346 offensive EPA/play and 46.2 points per game produce an 11-plus-point home win.
3-leg parlay
−100%Lost
Taken at −129
Short YardageUp 10% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Current-season profiles: Oklahoma State +0.277 EPA/play, -.114 defensive EPA allowed, .566 success, 2.94 points/drive across four games.
- Florida: +.346 offensive EPA/play, .541 success, .166 explosive rate, 3.84 points/drive; 94.7 overall grade versus South Carolina's 80.3.
- Western Michigan: +.124 EPA/play versus Kent State -.122, .471 versus .389 success, and an 83.3-to-56.2 overall-grade advantage.
- Oklahoma State has only four current-season games; UCF owns the better defense and explosive rate, leaving turnover-driven upset paths.
Florida Gators first-half spread NO 6.5
+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2,629 FBS regular-season games (2023, 25) give SD_full 14.71; square-root scaling gives SD_1H 10.40, with model mean Florida +5.25.
- Pinnacle Florida -11 at -107 scales to approximately +5.5 first-half mean, agreeing with the model direction.
- First-half margins are unobserved here; the normal mean-plus-SD model omits discrete scoring, correlated possessions, and halftime adjustments.
Florida Gators over 35.5 team points
−100%Lost
Taken at −113 on FanDuel
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- +0.183 EPA/play: Florida FBS offense .3654 minus South Carolina defense allowed .1824, four qualifying games each.
- South Carolina's official report lists multiple offensive absences, including OL Josiah Thompson and WR Jayden Sellers; matchup effects remain uncertain.

Show all 20 picks

Game total under 58.5
+94%Won
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
Kickoff LedgerDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- My fair total is 55.5: three points of cushion against FanDuel's 58.5.
- Florida averages +0.346 offensive EPA/play; South Carolina's offense averages +0.257, while both defenses allow roughly +0.15 EPA/play.
- South Carolina's 24.6-second pace is substantially slower than Florida's 29.8 seconds, limiting likely possessions.
- The biggest risk is an early explosive-score script: Florida and South Carolina have season explosive-play rates of 16.6% and 14.2%.
Total points over 59
−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Possession profile leans high: South Carolina runs 24.61 seconds/play with +0.1305 PROE; Florida carries +0.2505 PROE and 3.841 points/drive.
- QB gate cleared: latest box leaders are Aaron Philo and LaNorris Sellers; the official game-day page identifies both for this matchup.
- Most likely loss: Florida's 90.1 PFF defense plus South Carolina's offensive-line and receiver absences produce a one-sided 31-17 game.
Game total over 59.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
South Carolina Gamecocks +10.5
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3; two measures qualify, and raw thin-side stake is substantial. Directional coherence: backing South Carolina +10.5, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
- This is venue self-reference only; the depth difference is modest at 1.14x and could be noise rather than meaningful order flow.
Florida Gators to winFavorite
−100%Lost
Taken at 81¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Book levels are tied 3-3, so the core two measures qualify but the third does not corroborate; backing Florida, the thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it side, leg matches.
- This is venue self-reference only; ProphetX depth can reflect stale orders, cancellations, or one participant rather than predictive information.
Florida Gators wins by over 10.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model margin is Florida 13.0; estimated 56% probability versus 50% implied at the 2.00x contract multiplier.
- Florida is 4-1 with a 231-136 point differential; its 94.7 team grade is 14.4 points above South Carolina's.
- Florida's offense averages 0.346 EPA/play and a .541 success rate; South Carolina's defense allows .156 EPA/play.
- Florida lost 17-45 to Missouri last week, showing meaningful margin volatility.
South Carolina +10.5
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- South Carolina +10.5 wins when Florida wins by exactly 10; the adjacent +10 contract pushes and refunds.
- CFB history: exact 10-point margins occurred 441 of 10,371 games, or 4.252%.
- The 4.252% figure is a broad 2014-2025 NCAAF distribution, not a matchup projection.
2-leg parlayLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at +35800
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Spread density: the Florida -10/+10.5 pair crosses exact 10, occurring 463 times in 11,089 FBS regular/postseason games; the rung step is only 2.65 probability points.
- Total projection: both offenses average positive EPA/play (South Carolina +0.257, Florida +0.346), while both defenses allow positive EPA/play; recent scoring averages imply a game near 61 points.
- Most likely loss: Florida wins by 11 or more while the game stays at 59 points or fewer.
South Carolina Gamecocks over 59 total points
−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- only 2026 sample: Florida averages 37.7 points and South Carolina 28.7, 66.4 combined across three games each.
- Most likely loss: Florida repeats its 17-point Missouri output or South Carolina stalls in the red zone, leaving 59 or fewer.
South Carolina Gamecocks +9.5
+122%Won
Taken at 45¢ on Novig
Double-Digit DogNew model
Why it likes it
- Florida averaged 29.77 seconds per play across five 2026 games; slower pace compresses margins.
- The +9.5 rung gives up key-number insurance versus +10.5 if Florida creates separation late.
Game over 30.5 first-half total
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pace window: Florida 29.93 sec/play and 70.6 plays/game; South Carolina 24.59 sec/play and 75.4 plays/game.
- Drive arithmetic: observed 11.4 Florida and 12.0 South Carolina drives/game; faster combined pace lifts the 11.7 half-drive baseline to 12.0.
- Mean PROE is +7.6%; combined explosive rate is 15.4%; these produce the explicit 10.4% first-half script uplift.
- The same-rung number is a shown-math full-game scaling, not an independent first-half sharp line; confidence is capped at LEAN.
Total Points over 60
−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- only 2026 scoring: Florida averages 37.7 and South Carolina 28.7 points across three games each, 66.3 combined.
- Both current five-game defenses allow positive EPA/play: Florida +0.1608 and South Carolina +0.1559, preserving scoring paths.
- Aaron Philo and LaNorris Sellers are confirmed by the latest box leaders, official availability reporting, and Florida's game-day article.
- Most likely loss: Florida's latest 17-point output or a South Carolina red-zone stall leaves the game at 60 or fewer.
Game total under 59.5
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- ProphetX venue self-reference: executable size is overwhelmingly resting on the under at the quoted main-game rung.
- Personnel gate cleared: official reports identify Florida QB Aaron Philo and South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers; both teams have five games.
- Three current-season FBS games averaged 75.0 total points for Florida and 70.3 for South Carolina, both above 59.5.
Game total over 60.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- PROJECTION; SHARP REFERENCE, 2026 scoring averages are Florida 46.2 and South Carolina 37.6, an 83.8-point combined profile against a 60.5 live threshold.
- Live state is 7-0 with 3:47 left in Q1; Florida's current offensive EPA/play is +0.148, and South Carolina has already reached field-goal range.
- Pinnacle's live board still leans over at 57.5 (-115), while ProphetX offers a higher 60.5 rung at plus money.
- Most likely loss: Florida controls the game after the early touchdown while South Carolina's offense continues to stall.

Questions

Who won South Carolina vs. Florida?

The South Carolina won 38–19 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.