Howard vs. PennsylvaniaFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalFranklin Field
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOWA | 7 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 20 |
| PENN | 3 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 44.5 59¢
Why CFB HunterV2 likes it: Model projects 39.5 total points and 66% for Under 44.5.
CFB HunterV2Down 13% this season · 270 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-3 on this game · −27% return
- Game total under 42.5−100%Lost
Taken at −148 on DraftKings
3 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, Kickoff Ledger +1Why 3 models like it
Picks With Pink Grading System- PWP Grade 72/100 (B): qualifying edge with moderate risk.
- 39.4 projected points versus 42.5 posted total, a 7.3% projection gap.
- Howard's defense allowed 35.6 points per game, creating blowout-driven over risk.
Kickoff Ledger- Howard averages -0.22 EPA/play and 32.9% success; Penn's defense is near neutral at +0.01 EPA/play allowed.
- Penn's offense averages -0.14 EPA/play, 4.0% explosiveness and only 8.5 points through two games.
- Howard's defense has allowed 42.0 points per game, and Penn could exploit that matchup despite its slow start.
Long Way Home- 2026 scoring: Pennsylvania produced 10 and 7 points in its last two games; Howard produced 27, 7, and 0 in its last three.
- The two offenses' recent EPA profiles are poor: Pennsylvania posted -0.32 versus Lehigh, while Howard posted -0.51 versus Rutgers and -0.21 versus Indiana.
- Most likely loss: Pennsylvania converts Howard mistakes into short fields and Howard adds enough explosive or special-teams scoring to reach 43.
- Game total under 44.5+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects 39.5 total points and 66% for Under 44.5.
- Kalshi NO costs 59¢, implying 59%; estimated edge is +7 percentage points.
- Howard has allowed 35.6 points per game overall, so Penn could create a shootout alone.
- Howard Bison spread +11.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Howard's latest game produced +0.05 offensive EPA/play, -0.13 defensive EPA allowed and a 48.0% success rate in a 27-13 win.
- My 55% cover estimate is above ProphetX's 50.50¢ quote; the price gap, not the payout, is the projection edge.
- The low-scoring script is directionally coherent with the existing under position, but this is a separate spread ticket.
- Most likely loss: Pennsylvania's home offense rebounds and wins by 12 or more.
Questions
Who won Howard vs. Pennsylvania?
Pennsylvania won 24-20 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.