Nevada vs. UTEPFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSun Bowl

Nevada1–3

30–13Final

UTEP1–4

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
NEV	7	6	10	7	30
UTEP	0	7	0	6	13

Top model pick, graded

Won

Nevada Wolf Pack spread −8.5 54¢

CFB HeaterUp 8% return this season · 367 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 6-4 on this game · +2% return

Nevada Wolf Pack to winFavorite2 models agree
+27%Won
Taken at −375 on FanDuel
2 modelsD1 Winner, CFB HunterV2
Why 2 models like it
D1 Winner
- Nevada’s 2026 per-play offense EPA is +0.1298 versus UTEP’s +0.0247; defensive EPA allowed favors Nevada 0.0629 to 0.2376.
- PFF grades favor Nevada 78.6 overall versus UTEP 60.1, including a 55.9-to-40.6 passing-grade gap.
- Colson could be cleared, eliminating the largest QB-related edge; Nevada’s own DB absences also matter.
CFB HunterV2
- Nevada leads current-season offense EPA/play 0.130 to 0.025 and PFF overall grade 78.6 to 60.1.
- UTEP allows 0.238 defensive EPA/play and has lost four of five, including 7-61 last week.
- Nevada is only 1-3 this season; its recent close losses show meaningful game-to-game variance.
Nevada Wolf Pack spread −8.5
+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket
CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
Game total over 49.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
Nevada Wolf Pack wins by over 9.5 points
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Nevada's current-season scoring margin is +3.0 per game versus UTEP's -25.0, with Nevada averaging 27.25 points and UTEP allowing 41.4.
- Nevada's 0.130 offensive EPA/play and 0.126 explosive-play rate materially exceed UTEP's 0.025 and 0.089.
- Nevada has failed to win three times and lost by 13, 7, and 3, so a one-score result remains live.
UTEP Miners spread +10
−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on DraftKings
RnjDown 65% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 1.0-point spread variance: UTEP +10 at DraftKings versus +9.5 at FanDuel and +10.5 elsewhere.
- L4 matchup EPA differential is +0.179 for UTEP: +0.0717 offense-versus-defense edge versus Nevada's -0.1071.
- The market prices Nevada as a 10-point favorite despite UTEP's positive matchup EPA differential.
- Recent scoring form favors Nevada by 28.0 points per game: +3.0 versus UTEP -25.0.
Game total under 47.5
+94%Won
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- UTEP averages only 16.4 points per game through five 2026 contests and owns +0.0247 offensive EPA per play.
- UTEP’s questionable starting quarterback and weak backup passing sample support a lower offensive baseline.
- The total moved from 49.5 to 47.5 after Colson’s concussion status emerged, an identifiable driver rather than an unexplained move.
- Nevada’s offense is efficient at +0.1298 EPA per play and could reach the 30s by itself.

Show all 9 picks

Game total over 47.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- A conservative matchup blend projects roughly 52 total points from Nevada's 27.25 scoring average and UTEP's 41.4 points allowed.
- Nevada has a 0.130 offensive EPA/play; UTEP's defense allows 0.238 EPA/play and has permitted 33, 52, and 61 points in three recent losses.
- UTEP quarterback EJ Colson Jr. is questionable with a concussion, and his absence could suppress the Miners' scoring.
UTEP Miners to winLong shot
−100%Lost
Taken at 11¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- The exchange appears to have repriced UTEP more aggressively than the sharp reference after one early Nevada score.
- UTEP's 2026 pregame profile is poor: 16.4 points scored and 41.4 allowed per game across five games.
Nevada Wolf Pack spread −9
+85%Won
Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Nevada's latest profile shows +0.275 offensive EPA/play and 50.0% success rate against Air Force.
- UTEP's latest profile shows +0.433 defensive EPA/play allowed in a 61-7 loss at New Mexico.
- Pinnacle's current main number is Nevada -10 (-102); ProphetX's extra half-point is the concrete venue discrepancy.
- Most likely loss: Nevada's three-game losing streak continues and UTEP's home-field advantage keeps the margin below 10.

Questions

Who won Nevada vs. UTEP?

The Nevada won 30–13 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.